"In the previous Hangzhou second-hand housing market, the price of a house was reduced by 500,000 yuan, and it may not be able to sell for more than half a year. Recently, the number of second-hand houses in some areas has begun to rise sharply, and some owners have even begun to raise prices." May 30, A local person in Hangzhou revealed to the "Securities Daily" reporter that since mid-to-late May, after the implementation of the new policy to relax restrictions on house purchases, the sluggish second-hand housing market in Hangzhou has gradually increased.
In fact, not only in Hangzhou, but with the recent implementation of various measures to relax restrictions on house purchases in many places, the number of second-hand houses listed and viewed in some cities has increased significantly.So, what is the current level of the second-hand housing market?And how is the situation different from place to place?The reporter of "Securities Daily" tried to explore the real situation of the second-hand housing market in key cities through interviews with first-line brokers, industry experts and institutional analysts in many places.
According to data from the Shell Research Institute, since May, the average daily number of new second-hand housing listings in Shell 50 cities has increased by about 10% compared with the daily average in April.Looking at the long-term cycle, although the average new second-hand housing listings in the 50 cities in the past three months (from March to May 2022) increased by about 40% compared with the average from January to February this year, they were all lower than the same period in 2020. And the average of more than 25% in the same period in 2021.
"It can be said that the change in the number of new listings at this stage is a recovery growth from the low level at the beginning of this year, and the short-term fluctuation between months is also in line with the seasonal law." Liu Lijie, a market analyst at the Shell Research Institute, said that overall, short-term second-hand Housing supply is recovering.With the increase in second-hand housing listings, buyers will have more choices, and second-hand housing transactions will recover.
Second-hand housing market turns active
Judging from the current transaction data, the second-hand housing market in many places has joined the "recovery camp".
Statistics from the Shell Research Institute show that since May, the average daily transaction volume of second-hand housing in Suzhou and Xuzhou has increased by more than 130% compared with April, Nanjing has increased by more than 50% month-on-month, and Jinan, Dongguan and other cities have also increased month-on-month.According to statistics from the Zhuge Housing Data Research Center, as of May 26, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in Shenzhen, Suzhou, Nanjing, Qingdao, Foshan, Dalian and other cities exceeded that in April.In addition, judging from the volume indicator that can best reflect the market trend, some regional markets in many cities are also recovering.
"Judging from the overall performance of Xiamen's second-hand housing market, the heat in May was higher than that in April. Especially in the past week, after Xiamen implemented the relaxation of the purchase restriction policy (for example, foreigners buying houses off the island changed from providing a three-year work certificate to half a year). That is, families with two children and above in Xiamen household registration on the island can buy a third house, etc.), customers’ willingness to buy houses and the activity of viewing houses have improved.” A regional manager of Wheatfield Real Estate Xiamen revealed to a reporter from “Securities Daily”. Take the 4 stores in the district as an example. In the past 7 days, the daily traffic has increased from the previous six or seven groups to about ten groups, an increase of about 30%.Judging from the viewing volume of the past 30 days, May has increased by about 15% compared with April.
Another city with a better second-hand housing market is Hangzhou.On May 17, Hangzhou introduced a new policy for the property market. Newly settled people can directly buy second-hand houses even if they do not have social security. Non-registered people only need one year to buy second-hand housing with social security.Undoubtedly, loosening both ends of second-hand housing sales will strengthen the liquidity of the stock market.
"From the perspective of brokers, the current Hangzhou second-hand housing market gives people hope. From June last year to before the introduction of the new policy, the transaction volume of Hangzhou's second-hand housing market was sluggish, and most buyers were worried about entering the market at a high point, so most of them only saw Buy. After the introduction of the new policy, the accumulated demand for transactions has increased, and the transaction volume has soared." Mr. Zhang, a broker of a store in Hangzhou Lianjia, revealed to the "Securities Daily" reporter that he used to bring 10 groups of customers to see the house. There is a high probability that two or three orders will be completed.Looking at the whole Hangzhou second-hand housing market, the daily transaction volume has also recovered from the seventy or eighty units before the New Deal to the current level of two or three hundred units.
In addition, Liu Lijie also said that after the epidemic was brought under control in cities around Shanghai and the Northeast region, the transaction volume of second-hand houses recovered rapidly, which shows that the epidemic will affect the rhythm of demand entering the market, but it will not make the demand for housing disappear.
Yan Yuejin, director of the Think Tank Research Center of the E-House Research Institute, told a reporter from Securities Daily that behind the recovery of second-hand housing transactions in many places, the first is the increase in policy relaxation, ranging from relaxation of purchase restrictions, loan restrictions, and sales restrictions to support for multi-child families. , and then to adjust the provident fund and other policy combinations to activate the supply and demand ends; the second is that the policy warm air is frequently blowing, the market is expected to turn from a downturn to stability, and confidence is expected to be gradually restored, so that the first and second-hand Real estate market linkage transactions become possible.
There is room for bargaining to have the opportunity to sell
"From the market feedback, 'relaxing the purchase restriction + canceling the purchase of the house and subscribed for the loan + canceling the sale restriction or shortening the sale restriction time', if the down payment ratio of the second home can be superimposed and reduced, this policy combination can release more housing demand." A marketer from a leading real estate company told a reporter from Securities Daily that for improvement needs, many buyers need to sell their second-hand houses before replacing them with new ones. Only the tickets and funds for changing houses can stimulate the activity of new house sales.
"The prices of first- and second-hand houses in some areas of Nanjing are upside down, so the linkage transaction ratio of the first-hand and second-hand markets is relatively high. The 5 orders I have traded this month are all replacement orders, and 4 of them are selling second-hand houses to buy new ones. This kind of owner Generally, it will be sold at a price that is 10% to 15% lower than the previous transaction price of similar properties, but the room for bargaining has indeed narrowed recently." Mr. Liu, the broker of Nanjing Lianjia, revealed to the "Securities Daily" reporter that as for his motivation for changing houses , In addition to buying a new house with a lower price, the loan interest rate for buying a house now is quite different from last year's high point when buying a house. This year's loan of 1 million yuan may be 100,000 to 200,000 yuan less than last year's interest.
At the same time, Mr. Liu emphasized that most of the current transactions are houses that are 5% to 10% lower than the previous transaction prices of similar houses, so that they can be sold in a short period of time. There are very few communities and houses that do have price increases, but customers Not necessarily pick up.In general, rigid demand still accounts for the bulk of the transaction volume, and the willingness to replace improved demand is also very strong. The overall market is showing signs of recovery from a trough.
As the above-mentioned regional manager of Wheatfield Real Estate Xiamen further stated, in the second-hand housing market in Xiamen, in addition to the more active families with educational needs, in view of the fact that the prices of some first-hand and second-hand houses on the island are upside down, there are also state-owned enterprises recently photographed with a location advantage. The new land is waiting to enter the market. As a result, if there is an improved demand for replacement and buying a house, the second-hand house will be listed in advance, and the transaction will be more sincere, because it can wait for the funds to sell the second-hand house to start, and then go to "new" ( Use lottery and other methods to buy a new house).
However, the manager also bluntly stated that although both rigid demand and improvement demand are entering the market at the same time, there is still room for bargaining to have a chance to sell. The overall bargaining range is about 10%. On the contrary, it is small.In general, customers who have the need to buy a house and have the purchasing power will be more aggressive as long as the price point reaches their psychological expectations.At the same time, even if the increase in volume will shorten the transaction cycle, the overall market performance is still dominated by "stable".
"Judging from the performance of Hangzhou's second-hand housing market, there are also rigid and improved needs entering the market, but houses with room for bargaining are still the main force in transactions, but the bargaining range is narrowing. For example, a house of 3 million yuan has There is room for price reduction between 50,000 yuan and 100,000 yuan, unlike the previous bargaining of hundreds of thousands of yuan." Mr. Zhang said, "In general, Hangzhou's second-hand housing market has not entered the stage of customers 'flooding' to grab houses. It's just that the New Deal gave the market confidence and accelerated the release of stock demand."
In this regard, Zhuge Housing Research Center believes that the market showed signs of stabilization and improvement in May, which released a positive signal, and the easing effect of the policy has gradually emerged. Superimposed on the loose policies in various places, the property market has been accelerated to repair. It is expected that the market transaction will continue to improve in June.
