Our reporter Liu Qi
In order to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the banking system, on May 30, the People's Bank of China (hereinafter referred to as the "Central Bank") conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 10 billion yuan by way of interest rate bidding, and the winning bid rate remained unchanged at 2.1%.Since 10 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase expired on the same day, the open market achieved zero investment and zero return.
Since May, the scale of the central bank's reverse repurchase operations has been 10 billion yuan, even at the end of the month, which shows that the current liquidity is abundant.Liquidity indicators also confirm this - from the perspective of DR007 (the 7-day repurchase rate of interbank depository financial institutions pledged with interest rate bonds), Wind data shows that from May 20 to May 27, DR007 always at a lower level below 1.71%.As of 16:30 on May 30, although the weighted average interest rate of DR007 rose slightly to 1.7894%, it was still far below the 7-day reverse repurchase rate.In addition, overnight Shibor (Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate) also maintained a low level.According to data from the National Interbank Funding Center, as of May 30, its 5-day average and 10-day average were 1.3644% and 1.3532%, respectively.
Regarding the reason for the abundant liquidity at the end of the month, Liang Si, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, analyzed to a reporter from Securities Daily that the RRR cut in April released about 530 billion yuan of long-term funds, and since 2022, the central bank has turned over the balance of profits to exceed 800 billion yuan. , mainly used for tax rebates and increased transfer payments to local governments. The increase in fiscal expenditure will also lead to an increase in the scale of liquidity. Therefore, the overall market liquidity has maintained a reasonable and sufficient amount, and the funds are stable across months.
Tan Yiming, chief analyst of fixed income of Minsheng Securities, said in an interview with a reporter from "Securities Daily" that on the whole, thanks to the cooperation of the central bank's various monetary policy operations, in May, with the acceleration of local bond issuance and fiscal strength, funds The face is looser than expected.Among them, the central bank turned over the balance of profits to increase the base currency issuance is the key factor. At the same time, the overall stability of the open market operation in May and the precise drip irrigation of the structural monetary policy also help to maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity.
Looking forward to the liquidity in June, Liang Si expects that as the economic operation gradually returns to normal, the production of enterprises and the consumption demand of residents will gradually pick up.Monetary policy will continue to exert its strength, and comprehensively use various monetary policy tools to release liquidity to ensure that liquidity remains reasonably sufficient to meet the capital needs of the real economy.June is the middle of the year. Considering the influence of tax payment and assessment, it is expected that the liquidity demand may increase in the middle and late June.In addition, 200 billion yuan of MLF (Medium-Term Lending Facility) will expire on June 15, and the central bank will carry out a continuation at that time, which will have a limited impact on the total liquidity.
The relevant person in charge of the central bank emphasized on May 13 that "in the next stage, the People's Bank of China will follow the decisions and deployments of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, put stable growth in a more prominent position, and increase the implementation of a prudent monetary policy."Against this background, how will monetary policy exert its force in June, and is there any possibility of further interest rate cuts?
Tan Yiming believes that, judging from the current economic performance and the lenient credit situation reflected in the interest rates of state-owned and joint-stock bank bills, the possibility of interest rate cuts still exists, including policy interest rates. loan market quoted interest rate).
Liang Si believes that the LPR in May is adjusted for varieties with a maturity of more than 5 years, and the varieties with a 1-year period have not been adjusted. The superimposed regulatory authorities have successively issued many measures to stabilize growth. Therefore, whether there will be a rate cut in June will need to be comprehensively based on the economic recovery. consider.
