On June 1, nine departments including the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the "14th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development" (hereinafter referred to as the "Plan").The "Plan" proposes to develop and efficiently utilize renewable energy on a large scale, and accelerate the cultivation of new models and new formats.
The "Plan" proposes that the above indicators will be further improved on the basis that the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will reach about 25% in 2030 and the total installed capacity of wind power and solar power will reach more than 1.2 billion kilowatts.The replacement of fossil energy by renewable energy has been accelerated, the new power system has achieved substantial results, the competitiveness of the renewable energy industry has been further consolidated and improved, and a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system has been basically built.By 2035, carbon emissions will stabilize and then decline after peaking.
According to the task requirements of non-fossil energy consumption accounting for about 20% in 2025, the "Plan" clearly defines the main development goal of the "14th Five-Year Plan" is that by 2025, the total consumption of renewable energy will reach about 1 billion tons of standard coal, renewable energy It accounts for more than 50% of the increase in primary energy consumption; the annual power generation of renewable energy reaches about 3.3 trillion kWh, and the increase in renewable energy power generation accounts for more than 50% of the increase in electricity consumption in the whole society; The total amount of renewable energy power and the weight of non-hydropower consumption responsibility will reach about 33% and 18% respectively; the scale of non-electricity utilization such as geothermal energy heating, biomass heating, biomass fuel, and solar thermal utilization will reach more than 60 million tons of standard coal .
Aspect 1: Vigorously develop a variety of renewable energy sources according to local conditions
In terms of supply revolution, the "Planning" proposes to optimize the development mode and develop renewable energy on a large scale.In terms of location layout, we will optimize and promote the large-scale development of wind power and photovoltaic power generation bases in the "Three North" regions, coordinate the comprehensive development of water and wind power in the southwest region, and focus on the local and nearby development of wind power and photovoltaic power generation in the southern and eastern regions. The coastal areas actively promote the cluster development of offshore wind power, steadily promote the diversified development of biomass energy, actively promote the large-scale development of geothermal energy, and steadily promote the demonstration development of marine energy.
The "Planning" proposes to coordinate the construction of onshore wind power and photovoltaic power generation bases, and to promote the construction of large-scale wind power and photovoltaic power generation bases based on local consumption in Songliao, Hebei, and the lower reaches of the Yellow River.Promote photovoltaic desertification control, renewable energy hydrogen production and multi-energy complementary development, and focus on building new energy bases such as Xinjiang, the upper reaches of the Yellow River, the Hexi Corridor, and the Yellow River.
Accelerate the promotion of large-scale wind and solar power generation bases focusing on desert, Gobi and desert areas.Relying on the key power transmission channels that have been put into operation and started construction during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, wind power photovoltaic bases will be built in accordance with the requirement that the proportion of renewable energy in the new channels should not be less than 50%.
At the same time, the construction of offshore wind power bases will be promoted in an orderly manner.Actively promote the cost reduction and efficiency increase of deep-sea offshore wind power, and carry out demonstration of deep-sea offshore wind parity.Construction of integrated facilities for the conversion and utilization of various energy resources such as ocean energy, energy storage, hydrogen production, and seawater desalination.Accelerate the development of offshore wind power clusters, and focus on building five offshore wind power bases in Shandong Peninsula, Yangtze River Delta, Southern Fujian, Eastern Guangdong and Beibu Gulf.
The "Planning" also requires that it will actively promote the distributed development of wind power photovoltaic power generation, and carry out six actions including urban rooftop photovoltaic action and "photovoltaic +" comprehensive utilization action.Coordinate and promote the integrated development of water and wind power bases, actively promote the optimization and upgrading of large hydropower stations, and give full play to the potential of hydropower regulation.In addition, it will steadily promote the diversified development of biomass energy, actively promote the large-scale development of geothermal energy, and steadily promote the demonstration development of ocean energy.
Aspect 2: Promote the construction of renewable energy infrastructure and promote storage and consumption
The "Plan" requires that the construction of renewable energy storage and regulation facilities should be accelerated, and the support of diversified and intelligent power grid infrastructure should be strengthened.Strengthen the direct utilization of renewable energy power generation terminals, expand the scale of diversified non-electrical utilization of renewable energy, and take multiple measures to improve the level of renewable energy utilization.
In terms of improving storage capacity, the "Planning" proposes to formulate a new round of medium- and long-term plans for pumped storage across the country, vigorously promote project construction, and realize the scheduled commissioning of pumped storage power stations under construction in Fengning and Changlongshan.Carry out research on large-scale energy storage projects of cascade power stations in the upper reaches of the Yellow River, explore the joint operation of new energy power generation pumping, cascade energy storage power stations, and basin cascade hydropower stations, and innovate the operation mechanism.Promote the construction of large-scale energy storage pilot projects for 1 million kilowatt cascade power stations in the Longyangxia-Lashiwa River section, and support the consumption and delivery of new energy in Qinghai Province.
At the same time, the development of long-term heat storage solar thermal power generation will be promoted in an orderly manner.Promote key core technology research and reduce the cost of solar power generation.In Qinghai, Gansu, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Jilin and other high-quality resource areas, build long-term heat storage solar thermal power generation projects, and promote the integrated construction and operation of solar thermal power generation, wind power and photovoltaic power generation bases.
In terms of promoting local and nearby consumption of renewable energy, the "Plan" clearly states that the construction of grid infrastructure and intelligent upgrades will be strengthened, and the grid's ability to support and guarantee renewable energy will be enhanced.While improving the on-site consumption of renewable energy, promote the delivery and consumption of renewable energy.By increasing the scale of new energy transmission through existing UHV transmission channels in the "Three Norths" region, promoting the transformation of existing thermal power "point-to-grid" dedicated transmission channels for new energy transmission, and optimizing the layout of new channels, we will promote renewable energy across provinces and regions. Consumptive.
Aspect 3: Strengthening technical public relations, cultivating new models and new formats
The "Planning" proposes to strengthen forward-looking research and accelerate the research on cutting-edge and disruptive development and utilization technologies of renewable energy.Promote innovative breakthroughs in large-capacity wind turbines; make breakthroughs in key technologies of the entire industrial chain such as pre-processing, digestion, and utilization of bio-natural gas raw materials; promote the development of new water electrolysis equipment suitable for hydrogen production from renewable energy; accelerate large-capacity, high-density, high-safety, Development of new low-cost energy storage devices.
The "Planning" also calls for promoting the deep integration of renewable energy with emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, and blockchain, and developing a new model of intelligent, networked, and shared renewable energy production and consumption.
In terms of improving the modernization level of the supply chain of the renewable energy industry chain, the "Plan" clearly states that it will promote the optimization and upgrading of the renewable energy industry, strengthen the upgrading of manufacturing equipment and the large-scale application of new products, implement intelligent manufacturing and green manufacturing projects in the renewable energy industry, and promote the industry High-end, intelligent and green development.Promote the development of decommissioned wind turbines and photovoltaic modules recycling technology and new industrial chains, complete the last link of the green industrial chain of wind power and photovoltaic power generation, and realize the green closed-loop development of the whole life cycle.
Institutional view: wind power photovoltaic industry is expected to maintain prosperity
According to the analysis of the Prospective Industry Research Institute, in order to achieve the goal of China's non-fossil energy accounting for about 25% of primary energy consumption in 2030, during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, my country's annual average photovoltaic installed capacity may be 70-110GW. between.In order to reach the carbon peak in 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060, the photovoltaic industry will become one of the new energy industries that have been developing rapidly for a long time. The cumulative installed capacity of the power generation industry may be between 827-938GW.
The Orient Securities Research Report also mentioned that on May 30, the State Office forwarded the "Implementation Plan for Promoting the High-quality Development of New Energy in the New Era" by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration.After the promulgation of relevant documents, the land use of centralized photovoltaic power generation systems, the demand for distributed wind power photovoltaics, and the approval speed of related projects will be substantially guaranteed.
For the wind power industry, the Orient Securities Research Report proposed that the implementation of policies will promote the realization of the needs of the wind power industry, and simplifying the process is expected to accelerate the pace of subsequent construction.Under the background that the current IRR of wind power projects is at a relatively high level and the current price of superimposed components is still at a historically high level, it is not ruled out that the proportion of wind power in new energy power generation should be increased in the development sequence of short-term marginal projects.
