Throughout thenew energy vehicleindustry, regardless of policy orientation, market data or future-oriented layout trends in the industry, the development prospects of the new energy vehicle and power battery industry have been verified.
Different from the confidence and expectation of industry insiders in thenew energymarket, most consumers still hold a wait-and-see or even skeptical attitude towards new energy vehicles.
The "China New Energy Vehicle Market Insight Report 2021" jointly released by the ChinaElectric Vehicle100 Association and other institutions shows that when people buy new energy vehicles, they are most concerned about the five elements of battery life, appearance, safety, cost and charging, and the "endurance" factor is the most important. in the first place.
If the conventional performance of traditional fuel vehicles is used as a yardstick, when people face the declining cruising range of new energy vehicles, hard-to-findcharging piles, long charging waits, and even accidental spontaneous combustion safety incidents, it is difficult for this fledgling mass. Consumer goods have higher confidence.
The energy density and vehicle energy efficiency of the new energy vehicle power battery pack are the keys to the performance of the fuel vehicle.Power batteries have also become the key to filling the shortcomings of new energy vehicles and capturing the hearts of users.
User demand, market demand, and the increasingly fierce competition in the field of new energy power batteries have spread this battery-themed competition to a new track.
A person familiar with the Ningde era told Yiou Automobile that the current cooperation between global car companies and Ningde era is the order won by Ningde era in 2016 and 2017.At the moment, everyone is working hard to get orders after 2025.
"During this process, the next generation of technology reserves, massproductioncapabilities , and localization capabilities have become the key to this round of international competition, and will also determine how far the road can be paved in the future."
Chinese manufacturer, advanced card position
Different from other industries, because power batteries were originally a subdivision of lithium batteries, and China has formed a complete manufacturing industry chain in the field of 3C lithium batteries, when a new wave of automotive power batteries hits, China is appropriate. Grasp the first-mover advantage of power batteries.
In the field of power batteries, China has the home field advantage of manufacturing.Therefore, Chinese power battery manufacturers have global ambitions in the early stage of industrial development.
In the first quarter of 2022, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China will reach 19.3%, and the penetration rate of pure electric vehicles will reach 16.7%. According to industrial development practices, new energy vehicles with a penetration rate of 20% are about to enter a stage of explosive rapid growth.
Global carbon neutrality goals are undoubtedly the biggest driver of the electric vehicle market.With the increase in sales and the expansion of the market cake, the upstream players of the global electric vehicle industry are collectively entering the blue ocean market.
The power battery segment, which accounts for high vehicle costs and insurmountable technical barriers, is also following the principle of big water.
Competitive and diverse species have grown in this expanding "reservoir", and the competition will soon reach a fever pitch.
For the top two power battery manufacturers in the global market share, CATL and LG New Energy, the competition between the two for fixed-point orders from global car companies after 2025 has reached a state of "close-to-hand combat".
Although LG New Energy was once defeated in China due to battery safety issues, its innate advantages and development momentum in overseas markets made the Ningde era have to take precautions.
On January 27, 2022, LG New Energy was listed on the Korea Stock Exchange. It wants to use capital to expand its production capacity and lay out the market, and to catch up with the Ningde era, which has a first-mover advantage in capital.LG New Energy said on March 24 that it plans to invest about US$1.4 billion to build a second wholly-owned power battery factory in Arizona, USA.
Based on the innate advantages of Korean companies in overseas markets, LG New Energy has won Tesla, Volkswagen, GM and other overseas car factories. Orders and production capacity go hand in hand, which also prompts CATL to put the expansion of North American factories on the agenda. .
Although CATL remains highly vigilant to LG New Energy, CATL has historical advantages in the process of overseas business expansion.
First of all, ATL (New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., Amperex Technology Limited), the predecessor of CATL, was a lithium battery manufacturer with overseas customers such as Apple, Microsoft, and Nokia as its main body. ATL has also been injected with Japanese precision-manufactured genes.
In the early days of its birth, almost all the departments of CATL, including industrial manufacturing, quality, and after-sales, were built against BMW.CATL invited engineers from BMW to come to China to "teach" hands-on. In terms of company structure, production and manufacturing, they also have a German style.
It is these "mixed-blood" genes that allow CATL to accumulate "college entrance examination papers" all over the world in the process of overseas business expansion, and thus have "answering skills" that most Chinese companies do not have.
Three "innovations" of power batteries
In the field of power batteries, the optimal solution to competition is differentiated innovation.
For power battery manufacturers that rely on major breakthroughs in single-point technology to make progress, and power battery giants that have achieved global distribution, innovation can have completely different paths.
In the field of power batteries, with more than ten years of experience in the field of solid-state batteries, Qingtao Energy has successively obtained strategic blessings from three auto companies, BAIC, SAIC and GAC in recent years, and has become a partner of local auto companies in the field of solid-state batteries.
Li Zheng, co-founder and general manager of Qingtao Energy, told Yiou Auto that the innovation of power batteries can be basically divided into three levels in terms of technology.
The first is material system innovation.
This issuch as solid-state batteries and sodium-ion batteries, which are typical representatives.
The most important advantage of sodium-ion batteries is the cost advantage. Using it to replace lithium iron phosphate can reduce the cost of cathode materials from 40% of the vehicle to 17%. If the anode and cathode of sodium-ion batteries are changed from copper Further cost savings can be achieved by switching from foil to aluminium foil.
However, the low energy density of sodium ions restricts it to low-speed vehicle applications. If you want to enter the "elegant hall", you need to combine it with other metals, and only after complementary advantages can "glow and heat".
The second is process innovation
, such as the dry electrode technology advocated by Musk.The integrated die-casting technology included in this innovation makes the battery still a liquid lithium battery, but the process change can help improve the production qualification rate of the battery and reduce the cost.
Then there is the innovation of system integration,
that is, the innovation of battery shape and grouping methodA typical innovation is BYD's blade battery, which has a thinner and flatter shape, which can help the battery pack improve the overall safety and other performance, and also bring a lot of pack innovation possibilities.
These three levels of innovation have a logical relationship in the degree of subversion, and can also complement each other.
Innovations at the shallower technical level have shorter subversion cycles and can often be realized sooner; innovations at deeper technical levels require higher investment costs, but are not easily subverted by other innovations.
Li Zheng said frankly that in his eyes, innovation has no advantages or disadvantages, and each company has different positioning and disruption cycles that can be undertaken.However, if the innovation of the entire industry forms a trend, manufacturers can learn from each other, which will improve the overall level of the power battery industry.
Since its establishment in 2014, Qingtao Energy, where Li Zheng works, has been committed to the innovation of the material system of power batteries - the research and development of solid-state batteries.Regarding the innovation of power batteries, Li Zheng and his team have also explored a suitable industrialization path.
Taking 2014 as the watershed, before that, Li Zheng and his team, based in university laboratories, conducted horizontal research in cooperation with a Japanese car company, and completed the demonstration of the solid-state battery technology route.
After the establishment of Qingtao in 2014, the entire team has basically identified the technical direction of solid-state batteries. By learning from previous manufacturing experience, while the technology is further iterated, it will further explore industrial capabilities and commercialization.
If the small and medium-sized manufacturers represented by Qingtao Energy are more looking for differentiated point breakthroughs in highly segmented fields such as solid-state batteries, then giant manufacturers such as the Ningde era use computing power, algorithms and data to form A set of R&D innovation closed-loop based on electrochemistry, unique to CATL.
The research and development of power batteries in the Ningde era is very similar to the logic of artificial intelligence feeding back algorithms by collecting data.
For example, in the electrochemical laboratory of the Ningde era, by simulating the reaction of different chemical element ratios under different conditions, it is possible to deduce the different chemical element ratios required by a certain material in order to meet specific needs.
This research and development process, which is comparable to doubling the speed of ordinary experimental processes, can only cover so many types of elements by relying on powerful computing power and extensive data.
A person familiar with the Ningde Times revealed to Yiou Automobile that the cost of an electrochemical laboratory that can meet the current research and development needs of power batteries is tens of millions, while the cost of building a test and verification center is as high as billions.
Behind the R&D system of CATL is a giant R&D team of more than 9,000 people, most of whom are majors in electrochemistry and related fields from top universities in the world.
With the support of such a R&D system, CATL has successively produced sodium-ion batteries with a single cell energy density of up to 160Wh/kg, 15 minutes of charging at room temperature, and a capacity of more than 80%, a 12,000-cycle long-life battery, 304Wh/kg high specific energy power battery and modules, multi-functional composite current collector technology, module-free CTP power battery pack, and AB batteries and many other world premieres.
Today, CATL has drawn a picture of innovation at multiple levels including material R&D, product R&D, engineering design, test analysis, intelligent manufacturing, and information systems through this R&D system.
Survivor and Trailblazer
How to become a great auto supplier in the new era?What is the next generation of the automotive industry?
Faced with these questions, each manufacturer is writing its own answers.
Li Zheng told Yiou Auto that if you can't become the all-around champion now, you can first become the singles champion (with high energy density), and then continue to iteratively research and develop technologies until you become the all-around champion (high energy density, long average life, and instant discharge). The current is relatively large, and it is resistant to high temperature and low temperature, etc.).
In the face of the fierce external competition environment, the most important goal of Qing Tao is to survive and realize the matching of technology and business through products.
Li Zheng admitted to Yiou Automobile that in this process, the most important competitiveness of Qingtao is the core materials and manufacturing processes that he has explored. The stronger the company's control over the core, the higher the future iteration efficiency will be. .
"We are not eager to replace the products of the standard Ningde era, but first find a special application field. There are big benefits and small features. We are competing in dislocation." Li Zheng said bluntly.
If Qingtao Energy is a medium-sized ship that has sailed stably in the ocean, then the Ningde era may be an aircraft carrier that has entered the deep-sea vortex area. In order to avoid the impact, the Ningde era has accelerated its layout in all aspects.
From upstream lithium, cobalt, nickel, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate materials, to midstream lithium battery equipment and energy storage equipment, to downstream complete vehicles, automotive chips, charging and swapping services, battery material recycling and other links, CATL has passed Investment and equity participation, joint venture and joint construction, signing of long-term order agreements, etc., have carried out a vertical layout of the industrial chain, locked in the supply of key resources, and strived for price stability.
Ningde Times told Yiou Automobile that, driven by consumer feedback and policies and regulations of relevant departments, safety, long life, high energy density, and fast charging will continue to be mainstream.
Ningde Times believes that in the short term, for the field of commercialized liquid lithium-ion batteries, battery technology will develop around these mainstream needs; in the long run, all-solid-state batteries, sodium-ion batteries, and non-precious metal batteries will be the next An important development direction for a generation of batteries.
In this regard, a person familiar with the Ningde era said frankly: "No one can copy the homework for the Ningde era. We have not copied other people's homework, and we cannot be copied because we are facing completely different propositions."
Epilogue
The transformation from fuel vehicles to electric vehicles is ultimately a spontaneously-led transformation of human beings out of the pursuit of technology to change life and the persistence of carbon reduction and energy saving goals.
In the midst of change, human beings are always dealing with balances, such as the balance between pollution and efficiency, the balance between technology and business, and the balance between competition and cooperation.
In the future, power battery manufacturers will face a sufficiently broad global market, which is an arena without boundaries and standards.In this process, manufacturers will form a new ecology with the transformation of the relationship between opposition and complementarity based on their different competitiveness.
There are competitions in the field of power batteries, but it will not be a life-and-death competition. The future cooperation trend will be greater than competition.
