Zhongxin Finance, June 15th. The State Council Information Office held a press conference on the 15th to introduce the operation of the national economy in May. At the meeting, a reporter asked: Judging from the current situation in April and May, do you think the positive growth in the second quarter will be achieved? How likely is it?In addition, if the economy recovers in the next step, do you think the slow recovery of consumption will have a certain drag on the economy?
In this regard, Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the National Economic Comprehensive Statistics Department, said that everyone is more concerned about the economic growth in the second quarter of this year.It should be said that due to the complex and severe international environment and the impact of domestic epidemics and other unexpected factors, the downward pressure on economic operation in the second quarter increased.In the face of the difficult situation, under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee, all regions and departments have efficiently coordinated epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, actively stabilized the macroeconomic market, increased efforts to ensure smooth logistics, intensified assistance to enterprises, and promoted enterprises The resumption of work and production,the economic operation has realized a transition from a decline due to the impact of the epidemic to a gradual recovery.
We saw that in April, affected by the spread of the epidemic in many places, the main economic indicators declined. In May, the epidemic prevention and control improved, and production demand showed positive changes. However, some indicators still fell year-on-year.In June, with the implementation of a package of policies and measures to stabilize growth, the economic performance is expected to further improve.
First, demand pull is expected to increase.From the perspective of investment, the efforts to stabilize investment continued to increase, and the supporting role of investment growth was gradually strengthened.From January to May, manufacturing investment increased by 10.6% year-on-year, of which equipment manufacturing increased by 22%, and infrastructure investment grew faster.From January to May, infrastructure investment increased by 6.7% year-on-year, 0.2 percentage points faster than that from January to April.From the perspective of leading indicators, the total planned investment of newly started projects from January to May increased by 23.3% year-on-year, maintaining a rapid growth.In terms of consumption and foreign trade, the decline in total retail sales of consumer goods narrowed significantly in May. With the gradual restoration of life order, the pace of consumption recovery will also accelerate.In May, the growth rate of my country's imports and exports accelerated significantly, showing the characteristics of relatively strong foreign trade resilience.With the resumption of production of foreign trade enterprises and the improvement of port logistics, the growth of goods exports will continue to appear.
Second, the recovery of production is expected to be accelerated.From an industrial point of view, industrial production in May turned from falling to rising.With the acceleration of enterprises' resumption of work and production, especially the improvement of industrial production in some areas that were greatly affected by the epidemic in the early stage, it will support the acceleration of industrial production.Judging from the survey, the positive changes in industrial production in Shanghai, Jilin and other places have increased significantly.From the perspective of the service industry, in May, the downward momentum of the service industry production index slowed down, and the decline in some contact service industries narrowed significantly.With the overall improvement of epidemic prevention and control and the restoration of production and living order, the improvement trend of the service industry is expected to continue.In May, in the service industry PMI, the business activity expectation index of enterprises has rebounded significantly from the previous month, reaching 55.2%.
Third, the market operation is expected to improve.From the perspective of transportation and logistics, in May, the national cargo turnover increased by 3.4% year-on-year, 0.3 percentage points higher than the previous month, and the national port container throughput growth rate changed from negative to positive, up 4.3% year-on-year.With the continuous advancement of logistics security, the traffic and logistics situation in June will be further improved, which is conducive to the smooth operation of production and circulation.From the perspective of industrial product prices, the market has shown the effectiveness of ensuring supply and stable prices.In May, the output of raw coal, crude oil and natural gas increased by 10.3%, 3.6% and 4.9% respectively, which is conducive to the stability of energy prices and also led to a decline in the increase of PPI.In May, the PPI increased by 6.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month.The fall in PPI, especially upstream price increases, is conducive to relieving the cost pressure of the mid-stream and downstream industries and improving the operation of the industrial economy.
Fourth, policies and measures to stabilize growth were further effective.In the face of the complex and severe external environment and the downward pressure on the economy brought about by the impact of the domestic epidemic, on the basis of the original policies and measures to stabilize growth, the State Council further issued a package of policy measures to stabilize the economy in May, including 33 specific measures in 6 areas, and local governments also In actively implementing the central requirements, combined with local measures to stabilize the economy.These measures are expected to take effect gradually in June, which will promote economic stability and improvement.Judging from the recent situation, the effective implementation of the large-scale tax refund policy has played a positive role in alleviating the operating pressure of enterprises. At the same time, financial support for the real economy has been continuously increased, and the capital situation of enterprises has been improved.
On the whole,if the epidemic can be effectively controlled and various measures to stabilize growth are implemented and effective, with the joint efforts of all parties, the economy is expected to achieve reasonable growth in the second quarter.
Regarding the recovery of consumption, at present, although consumption is still recovering due to the impact of the epidemic, it should also be noted that as the effect of epidemic prevention and control gradually emerges, employment remains stable, and consumption recovery will continue.(Finish)
【Editor: Cheng Chunyu】
