Positive changes in my country's economic operation have increased (authoritative release)
The year-on-year growth rate of the industrial added value above designated size increased from -2.9% in the previous month to 0.7%, the year-on-year growth rate of the total import and export of goods accelerated by 9.5 percentage points from the previous month, and the national urban survey unemployment rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month...6 On May 15, the National Bureau of Statistics released the economic data for May.
"With the overall improvement of the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation, the effects of policies and measures to stabilize growth have gradually emerged, and positive changes in economic performance have increased. Most of the main indicators have improved, and the economies of some regions that have been greatly affected by the epidemic have rebounded." At a press conference held by the State Council Information Office on the 15th, Fu Linghui, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said.
Gradually overcome the adverse impact of the epidemic, the economy shows a recovery momentum
In May, my country's economic operation showed positive changes, and most of the main indicators improved.
Production and supply gradually recovered."The effect of ensuring the smooth flow of logistics continues to appear, the resumption of work and production of enterprises is progressing in an orderly manner, and the industrial and service industries have rebounded." Fu Linghui said that in May, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.7% year-on-year, compared with a decline in the previous month. 2.9%.Among them, the manufacturing industry increased by 0.1% in May, compared with a decrease of 4.6% in the previous month; the service industry production index decreased by 5.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous month.The decline in wholesale and retail, transportation and warehousing industries narrowed significantly.
The import and export of foreign trade accelerated significantly.With the resumption of production of foreign trade enterprises and the gradual improvement of foreign trade logistics, the backlog of foreign trade orders in the previous period has been released, and the growth rate of import and export of goods has picked up.In May, the total import and export of goods increased by 9.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 9.5 percentage points higher than that of the previous month.Among them, exports increased by 15.3%, an acceleration of 13.4 percentage points.
Employment improved and prices were generally stable.In May, consumer prices rose by 2.1% year-on-year, the same increase as the previous month, and prices were generally stable.The national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.9%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.Among them, the unemployment rate of migrants with agricultural household registration was 6.2%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the unemployment rate of the main employment population aged 25-59 was 5.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the employment fundamentals were generally improving.
"The main body of the migrant agricultural household registration population is migrant workers, mainly engaged in labor-intensive industries such as manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail, and most of them are private, self-employed and flexible employment, and the employment stability is relatively poor. The employment of migrant workers has improved. , reflecting that the economic operation has improved, and the policies and measures to stabilize employment have been effective." Fu Linghui said.
Some areas hit hard by the epidemic have recovered faster.Production in the Yangtze River Delta and Northeast regions, which were hit hard by the epidemic in the early stage, improved significantly.In May, the added value of industries above designated size in the Yangtze River Delta and Northeast China decreased by 3.2% and 1.1% year-on-year, respectively, and the rate of decline narrowed by more than 10 percentage points from the previous month.
"In general, my country's economy has gradually overcome the adverse impact of the epidemic and has shown a momentum of recovery." Fu Linghui analyzed that the current international environment is still complex and severe, external uncertainties are increasing, and the domestic economic recovery is still preliminary.The growth rate of major indicators is still at a low level, and the foundation for recovery still needs to be consolidated.
Market demand has gradually improved under the influence of policies to stabilize investment and promote consumption
In recent years, China's economic growth has been mainly driven by domestic demand. In 2021, the contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth will reach 79.1%.What are the characteristics of the current domestic demand?
"The situation of epidemic prevention and control is generally improving, the order of production and life is gradually restored, and the market demand is gradually improving due to the policy of stabilizing investment and promoting consumption." Fu Linghui said.
As the first engine of economic growth, the decline in market sales has narrowed, and the vitality of the consumer market has gradually recovered.In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods exceeded 3.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.7%, a decrease of 4.4 percentage points from the previous month.Among them, the retail sales of automobiles, which accounted for nearly 10% of the total retail sales of consumer goods, fell by 16%, 15.6 percentage points lower than that in April.
From the perspective of commodity categories, among the retail sales of units above designated size in May, the retail sales of over 80% of the commodities by category value improved compared with that in April, and the retail sales of half of the commodities increased by category value.
In terms of consumption formats, the growth rate of physical online retailing has accelerated, and the sales of self-service retail formats such as supermarkets are better than the overall.From January to May, the national online retail sales of physical goods increased by 5.6% year-on-year, 0.4 percentage points faster than the growth rate from January to April.The postal express industry, which is closely related to online shopping, has rebounded significantly.Statistics from the State Post Bureau show that in May, China's express delivery development index was 269.2, a month-on-month increase of 11.6%; express delivery business volume increased by 20.6% month-on-month.
"Affected by the epidemic, in May, the consumption of catering with obvious contact and clustering characteristics continued to decline significantly. In May, catering revenue fell by 21.1% year-on-year; the growth rate of retail sales of goods has not turned positive." Statistician of the Department of Trade and Foreign Economics of the National Bureau of Statistics Fu Jiaqi said that in the next stage, it is still necessary to efficiently coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, solidly promote the implementation of a package of stable economic policies and measures, support the development of market entities, increase residents' willingness to consume, and improve residents' consumption capacity, so as to promote the continuous recovery of the consumer market. .
To stabilize growth, we must play a key role in effective investment.In the first five months, fixed asset investment increased by 6.2% year-on-year, the growth rate was 0.6 percentage points lower than that in the previous four months, and the rate of decline was 1.9 percentage points lower than that in the previous four months.Among them, infrastructure investment increased by 6.7%, the growth rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than that in the first four months, and 0.5 percentage points higher than the growth rate of all investment; high-tech industry investment increased by 20.5% year-on-year, maintaining the rapid growth since the beginning of this year.
In particular, it is worth mentioning that the leading role of investment in large projects has been strengthened.Luo Yifei, chief statistician of the Investment Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in the first five months, the completed investment in projects with a planned total investment of 100 million yuan or more increased by 10.2% year-on-year, 4 percentage points higher than that of the total investment; the contribution rate to the growth of the total investment was 83.3%, compared with The first four months increased by 2 percentage points; driving the total investment to increase by 5.2 percentage points.
The economy is expected to achieve reasonable growth in the second quarter
Affected by unexpected factors such as the complex and severe international environment and the impact of the domestic epidemic, the downward pressure on economic operation in the second quarter increased.Facing the difficult situation, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee, various regions and departments have efficiently coordinated epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, and the economic operation has changed from a decline due to the impact of the epidemic to a gradual recovery.
Fu Linghui said that in April, affected by the spread of the epidemic in many places, the main economic indicators declined; in May, with the improvement of epidemic prevention and control, production demand showed positive changes, but some indicators still fell year-on-year; in June, With the implementation of a package of policies and measures to stabilize growth, the economic performance is expected to further improve.
Demand pull is expected to strengthen.From the perspective of investment, the efforts to stabilize investment continued to increase, and the supporting role of investment growth was gradually strengthened."From the perspective of leading indicators, from January to May, the number of newly started projects increased by 26.1% year-on-year, the total planned investment of newly started projects increased by 23.3%, and the funds in place for investment projects (excluding real estate development investment) increased by 18.4%, which is conducive to the scale of investment. Continue to expand." Luo Yifei said that in the next stage, it is necessary to accelerate the construction of major projects, accelerate the issuance and use of local government special bonds, leverage and guide social investment, actively expand effective investment, and promote stable investment growth.
In May, the decline in total retail sales of social consumer goods narrowed significantly, and the growth rate of imports and exports accelerated significantly. With the gradual restoration of production and living order, the pace of consumption recovery will also accelerate, and the growth of goods exports will continue to show.
Production recovery is expected to accelerate."Generally speaking, the resumption of work and production in areas seriously affected by the epidemic, such as Shanghai and Jilin, has accelerated, the level of logistics across the country has been continuously improved, and key industries and enterprises have advanced in an orderly manner to maintain and stabilize the chain. Industrial production began to resume in May, showing a positive signal." Tang Weiwei, deputy director of the Industrial Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that with the precise force of the policy combination, industrial production is expected to recover faster.In addition, in the service industry PMI (purchasing managers' index) in May, the business activity expectation index rebounded from the previous month, reaching 55.2%.
Market functioning is expected to improve.In May, the national cargo turnover increased by 3.4% year-on-year, 0.3 percentage points higher than the previous month; the growth rate of port container throughput turned from negative to positive, up 4.3% year-on-year.With the continuous advancement of logistics security, the traffic and logistics situation in June will be further improved, which is conducive to the smooth operation of production and circulation.In May, the PPI (Industrial Producer Price Index) rose by 6.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month.
"In the face of the complex and severe external environment and the downward pressure on the economy brought about by the impact of the domestic epidemic, on the basis of the original policies and measures for stabilizing growth, the State Council further issued a package of policy measures to stabilize the economy in May, including 33 specific measures in 6 areas. Actively implement the requirements of the central government and introduce measures to stabilize the economy in combination with local governments. These measures are expected to take effect gradually in June, which will promote the recovery of the economy." Fu Linghui said that in the near future, the large-scale tax rebate policy has been effectively implemented. It has played a positive role in alleviating the pressure on business operations. At the same time, financial support for the real economy has been continuously increased, and the capital situation of enterprises has been improved."On the whole, if the epidemic can be effectively controlled and various measures to stabilize growth take effect, with the joint efforts of all parties, the economy is expected to achieve reasonable growth in the second quarter."
【Editor: Wang Yu】
