According to the latest data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange a few days ago, in the first quarter of 2022, my country's balance of payments will remain basically balanced.Among them, the current account surplus was 88.9 billion US dollars, the highest value in the same period in history, and the ratio to the gross domestic product (GDP) in the current quarter was 2.1%, still in a reasonable and balanced range.At the same time, cross-border two-way investment and financing have been relatively active, especially foreign direct investment and direct investment in China have maintained year-on-year growth.
According to Wang Chunying, deputy director and spokesperson of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, in the first quarter, my country's national economy continued to recover, and the economic operation achieved a stable start. The balance of payments balance of goods trade surplus was 145 billion US dollars, an increase of 18% year-on-year.Among them, the export of goods was 803.1 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 16%; the import was 658.2 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 15%.The trade surplus in goods and the scale of exports and imports all hit the highest levels in history for the same period.At the same time, in the first quarter, the service trade deficit was 16.7 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 35%.
In terms of capital and financial account, in the first quarter, my country's financial account assets increased by $129.1 billion, of which reserve assets increased by $39.3 billion due to transactions, non-reserve financial account assets by $89.8 billion, and financial account liabilities by 402%. One hundred million U.S. dollars."my country's foreign direct investment and direct investment in China have both maintained year-on-year growth, which shows that foreign investment has a strong willingness to invest in China, and my country's foreign direct investment is reasonable and orderly." Wang Chunying said.
Looking forward to the future, people in the industry generally believe that despite the increased volatility in the global financial market, my country's balance of payments is expected to continue to maintain a basic balance and become more stable.
Wang Chunying said that my country has effectively coordinated epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, and the fundamentals of the long-term economic improvement have not changed, which is conducive to maintaining a basic balance of international payments.
Wang Youxin, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, said in an interview with a reporter from the Economic Information Daily that the Federal Reserve has accelerated its tightening of monetary policy, and the volatility of the global financial market has increased. Risk sentiment and other channels are transmitted to the domestic market, and the short-term volatility of the RMB exchange rate will increase.However, considering the relatively stable fundamentals of the domestic economy, the firm and strong pace of reform and opening up, the continuous improvement of the financial system, and the good prospects for the development of the capital market, it is conducive to attracting long-term capital inflows and continuing to stabilize cross-border capital flows."The inflow of overseas capital to my country not only pursues interest rate spreads, but also pays attention to the safety and stability of investment, which will offset the negative impact of the narrowing of domestic and overseas interest rate spreads to a certain extent," he said.
Cheng Shi, chief economist of ICBC International, also said that in the short term, China's imported inflation pressure in the second half of the year will be significantly lower than that of other major economies, and deflation will obviously not occur. In the U.S. dollar interest rate hike cycle, RMB assets are expected to highlight unique characteristics. configuration value.In the long run, getting out of the epidemic and developing with high quality will become the dual comparative advantages of the Chinese economy, setting the tone for the long-term prosperity of the capital market.Due to the high certainty of China's economic rebound in the second half of the year and the rising expectations of an economic recession in the United States, foreign investors still have reasons to allocate a certain proportion of RMB assets to diversify risks in the context of market turmoil.
