Changes in commodity prices have always been a "signal light" for the market. Since the second quarter, against the backdrop of rising overseas determination to curb inflation, the situation of high commodity prices is easing.
Recently, the "Securities Daily" reporter learned from a number of securities companies and futures companies that they have reached a consensus on the rise in overseas inflation expectations, and believe that the process of raising interest rates in the second half of the year will continue.At the same time, when the demand side is lower than expected, commodity prices have ushered in an inflection point, but it should be noted that the inflection point of crude oil prices may be later than that of other commodities.
The overseas interest rate hike process will continue in the second half of the year
Since the beginning of this year, the continuous spillover of geopolitical risks has played a certain role in promoting the rise of commodity prices, especially the global energy and grain prices, which have reached record highs.In addition, entering the second quarter, global inflation has become increasingly serious.Among them, the US CPI in May greatly exceeded market expectations, and the core CPI was at a high level in the past 40 years.
In this context, the global inflation expectations continue to rise.In mid-June, the Federal Reserve announced a 75 basis point rate hike, the largest rate hike in nearly 28 years.In addition, based on the Fed's hawkish stance, the market's expectations for a 75 basis point increase in interest rates in July have increased.However, the continuous high-frequency and large-scale interest rate hikes have also raised concerns about the global economy falling into recession in the future.
"Affected by geopolitical factors, the price of Brent crude oil once rose to above $120 per barrel. At the same time, factors such as weather and anti-globalization continued to affect energy and food prices." Haitong Securities analysis believes that disturbing global inflation The key lies in energy and food.In May, U.S. energy inflation turned positive to 3.9% month-on-month; food inflation continued to rise to 1.2% month-on-month, the highest since 1990 (except April 2020).
Against the backdrop of rising inflation overseas, most institutions agree with the practice and determination of various countries to curb inflation, and believe that the process of raising interest rates in the second half of the year will continue, but it will also be discussed due to the nature of commodities.
CICC stated that the process of overseas interest rate hikes in the second half of the year will have a significant inhibitory effect on inflation. Although the global supply-side risks have not yet subsided, the probability of extreme situations will decrease, and the impact on the fundamentals of commodities will be marginally weakened. Long-term factors will have a direct impact on market expectations and commodity price trends in the second half of the year.
"In the second half of the year, it is still possible to carry out several large-scale interest rate hikes. Against the background of the firm determination of the United States to control inflation and strong expectations of long-term economic recession, commodity prices will fall as a whole, but they are expected to remain under pressure in the later period." Galaxy Futures Energy Chemical Tong Chuan, a researcher at the Investment Research Department, told the "Securities Daily" reporter.
Liu Shunchang, an analyst at Nanhua Futures Energy Chemical, told this reporter that the recent series of macroeconomic data released by the United States has led the market to expect that the probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 75 basis points in July is more than 80%.It can be seen that the Fed's monetary tightening is expected to continue, which will put pressure on various asset prices.
Crude oil price turning point may be later than other commodities
Since late June, international oil prices have shown a trend of consolidation at a low level. Brent crude oil futures have not been able to reach this mark again after falling below $110 per barrel, while WTI crude oil futures have also adjusted within this range.Combined with the views of many institutions that the inflection point of commodity prices has reached, the market has doubts about whether the international oil price can maintain a high level of consolidation.
"The recent correction in crude oil prices is due to the fact that the United States has raised interest rates sharply to curb inflation, and the market is more pessimistic about the growth of long-term demand, which has led to an overall decline in commodity prices; on the other hand, there have been changes in the supply side. Continued recovery in June and June will bring additional supply in the third quarter." Tong Chuan said, at the same time, OPEC members will no longer be constrained by the production reduction plan after August, all of which have a negative impact on international oil prices. .With the current economic recession expected unchanged, the inflection point of commodity prices has already appeared, but as a final consumer goods, the price inflection point of crude oil may be later than that of other commodities.
A relevant person from the Orient Securities Derivatives Research Institute told this reporter that the impact of inflation in the United States and Europe began to be reflected in the second quarter, but the actual rate was moderate. The further correction of crude oil prices in this round is mainly due to the digestion of interest rate hikes and the less-than-expected demand prospects."Currently, Russia's crude oil exports remain stable, and changes in macro expectations may become the main factor affecting oil prices in the second half of the year."
Regarding the recent correction of crude oil prices, Liu Shunchang believes that in addition to the adverse impact of the expected decline in overseas macroeconomic growth, it is also related to the marginal weakening of the supply side."At present, the probability of the current turning point of commodity prices is increasing. The main reason is the slowdown in overseas economic growth and the adverse impact on the demand side of commodities. It can be confirmed that the bull market has ended. For crude oil, compared with the performance of other commodity prices On the strong side, but then with the stable supply side and weak demand side expectations, the peak of international oil prices will also come."
