As the weather vane of the next stage of monetary policy policy, the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China recently held a regular meeting in the second quarter of 2022, which proposed to increase the implementation of a prudent monetary policy and give full play to the dual functions of monetary policy tools in terms of volume and structure.
Give full play to the dual functions of monetary policy tools
The meeting proposed that, in accordance with the clear requirements of "preventing the epidemic, stabilizing the economy, and ensuring safety in development", we should make overall plans to stabilize employment and prices, take stability as the top priority, seek progress while maintaining stability, and strengthen inter- and counter-cyclical adjustments. Strengthen the implementation of a prudent monetary policy, give full play to the dual functions of monetary policy tools in terms of volume and structure, take the initiative to respond, boost confidence, provide stronger support for the real economy, and stabilize the macroeconomic market.
At the same time, the meeting emphasized that the monetary policy transmission mechanism should be further cleared, liquidity should be kept reasonably sufficient, the stability of total credit growth should be enhanced, and the growth rate of money supply and social financing scale should be basically matched with the nominal economic growth rate.Under the favorable conditions of stable and increased domestic grain production and stable operation of the energy market, the price level will remain basically stable.
In terms of keeping the price level basically stable, industry insiders believe that despite the disturbance of imported inflation pressure and other factors, the domestic inflation level is controllable.Yi Gang, governor of the People's Bank of China, also stressed that my country's inflation outlook is relatively stable.Maintaining price stability and maximizing employment are the priorities of the PBC.
On the 29th, the People's Bank of China also released a survey report on urban depositors in the second quarter of 2022.The results show that 27.6% of residents expect prices to "rise" in the next quarter, and 50.8% expect "basically unchanged".
Increase support for key areas
In terms of structural monetary policy, the meeting clarified that structural monetary policy tools should be actively "additional", make precise efforts, increase support for inclusive small and micro loans, support small, medium and micro enterprises to stabilize employment, and make good use of coal to support clean and efficient coal Use, scientific and technological innovation, inclusive pension, special re-lending of transportation and logistics, and carbon emission reduction support tools, comprehensively implement policies to support coordinated regional development, and guide financial institutions to increase support for small and micro enterprises, technological innovation, and green development.
Industry experts said that in the second half of the year, my country will adhere to the monetary policy operation of "focusing on me" and "taking into account both internal and external", and focus on solving the problem of insufficient aggregate demand through aggregate policies. strength of support.
CITIC Securities chief economist Mingming said that from the perspective of structural monetary policy, there is a re-lending and re-discount quota of nearly 1.3 trillion yuan available this year for comprehensive re-loan re-discount for supporting agriculture and small businesses and various special re-lending.In addition, there is still the possibility of new and additional quotas for follow-up structural instruments.
"There are multiple uncertainties in the trend of various goals in the second half of the year, and monetary policy decision-making will become more difficult, which will show the characteristics of discretion. In the short term, in order to hedge against the impact of the epidemic, monetary policy will stabilize growth and employment as the primary goal, and maintain a stable and slightly looser. " said Li Chao, chief economist at Zheshang Securities.
Promote the reduction of comprehensive financing costs for enterprises
The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to improve the formation and transmission mechanism of market-oriented interest rates, optimize the central bank's policy interest rate system, strengthen the supervision of deposit interest rates, focus on stabilizing the cost of bank liabilities, give play to the efficiency and guiding role of the reform of loan market quotation interest rates, and promote the reduction of comprehensive financing costs for enterprises.
Since the beginning of this year, the regulatory authorities have taken various measures to reduce the financing cost of the real economy. For example, the People's Bank of China has twice guided the loan market quoted interest rate (LPR) to decline.In May, the 1-year LPR stayed on hold, and the 5-year LPR fell again by 15 basis points.
"The 'two grips' will continue to open up the downside of financing costs." Sun Fu, chief macro analyst at Huaxi Securities, believes that one is the market-oriented adjustment of deposit interest rates, which can effectively reduce the cost of banks' liabilities; the other is that the structural monetary policy continues Make efforts to accurately drip irrigation in key industries.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Dongfang Jincheng, said that the current economy is in a recovery period, and the policy side is focusing on guiding banks to increase credit issuance to benefit the real economy.Focusing on stimulating the credit demand of enterprises and residents, banks have the motivation to continue to reduce real loan interest rates in the short term.In addition, the recent increase in support for small and micro credit, and the establishment of 100 billion yuan of special re-loans for transportation and logistics by the People's Bank of China have made comprehensive efforts, which will not only drive the incremental expansion of bank loans, but also form a certain "price reduction" effect. .
In addition, in terms of real estate, the meeting made it clear that the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers will be protected, the reasonable housing needs of home buyers will be better met, and the healthy development and virtuous circle of the real estate market will be promoted.Previously, the People's Bank of China also stated that it will continue to adhere to the positioning that houses are for living, not for speculation. In accordance with the requirements of exploring new development models, differentiated housing credit policies will be implemented according to city-specific policies, and the prudent management system of real estate finance will be properly implemented. , accelerate the improvement of the housing leasing financial policy system, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
