At the end of half a year, capital prices reappeared seasonally.
On June 29, the overnight repurchase rate GC001 of the Shanghai Stock Exchange rose to a high of 5.65% intraday, surpassing the high at the end of March and hitting a new high this year.
Market participants believe that the recent seasonal fluctuations in funds are coming to an end, and they are expected to return to stability soon after the cross-season.
For investors, may wish to participate in reverse repurchase transactions on rallies.There are not many such opportunities at the moment when the funds continue to be loose.
With some "smell of the end of the half year"
The degree of easing has converged, and the price of capital has risen... In recent days, the market capital has only had a "smell of the end of half a year".
On June 29, the pledged bond repurchase rate on the exchange market continued to rise in general.Among them, the overnight varieties have the most obvious upward trend.
As of the close, the Shanghai Stock Exchange GC001 rose to a high of 5.65% intraday, and the weighted average interest rate for the whole day rose to 5.34%, an increase of 275 basis points from the previous day; the Shenzhen Stock Exchange R-001 rose to a high of 6.1%, and the weighted average interest rate of the whole day rose to 6.1%. Reported 5.25%, up 270 basis points from the previous day.
From the K-line chart, since June 24, GC001 has been rising continuously. On June 29, it surpassed the high point at the end of March (5.5%), setting a new high this year.
It is worth mentioning that between the two highs, the trend of GC001 is very stable.
While interest rates are rising, transactions of GC001 have been more active recently.Data shows that since June 23, the daily turnover of GC001 has exceeded 1.2 trillion yuan in a row, reaching a recent high level.
"This shows that the demand for funds from financial institutions increased at the end of the quarter, and the relationship between supply and demand has tightened." A brokerage source said, "This is a normal phenomenon at the end of the quarter."
CICC and other institutions explained that the recent increase in capital prices was mainly due to seasonal factors such as the end-of-quarter regulatory assessment.
According to analysis, in order to meet the assessment requirements of indicators such as LCR (liquidity coverage ratio), commercial banks tend to increase liquidity reserves and reduce external financing, especially financing to non-bank institutions.Affected by this, the funding level at the end of the quarter may be tightened and stratified, and the funding level of non-bank institutions is more likely to be tight.
The exchange market is dominated by non-bank institutions, and the volatility of capital prices at the end of the quarter tends to be larger.
In contrast, funds in the inter-bank money market remained relatively stable on the whole.
Data show that on June 29, in the inter-bank market, the weighted average interest rate (DR001) of depository institutions overnight pledged repurchase was 1.35%, which was about 8 basis points lower than the previous day.The representative 7-day repo weighted average rate (DR007) rose about 9 basis points to 2.06%.
Funding fluctuations at the end of the quarter are coming to an end
Institutions generally expect that the local fluctuations in funds at the end of the quarter are coming to an end, and it is expected to return to stability early next month.
First, in order to maintain stable liquidity at the end of the quarter, the central bank has recently moderately increased short-term liquidity provision.Among them, in the last three trading days, the volume of reverse repurchase transactions in the open market has reached 100 billion.
Second, the liquidity of the interbank system was generally stable.Banking institutions are the "ballast stone" of the money market. Judging from the observation indicators such as the pledged repo rate of depository institutions and the capital sentiment index, although the market capital has been somewhat restrained recently, it cannot be said that it has been tightened comprehensively.
Third, after half a year, the influence of factors such as supervision and assessment will be quickly eliminated.
Fourth, the end of the quarter is also the time for centralized fiscal expenditure, which is expected to increase the total liquidity of the banking system, which is expected to be more fully reflected in the capital level at the beginning of next month.
In fact, institutional people are generally more optimistic about the funding at the end of June this year.
According to a recent market survey conducted by Guotai Junan Securities, the vast majority of investors surveyed believe that the balance of funds will be between a loose balance and a tight balance by the end of the first half of this year.
At the end of March this year, GC001 also rose to 5.5% during the intraday period, but returned to normal levels soon after the cross-season.
Investors can actively seize opportunities
For ordinary investors, the end of the quarter is a good time to participate in the reverse repurchase of bonds due to the convergence of funds and the increase in capital prices.
Exchange bond reverse repurchase transactions are very safe and suitable for short-term cash management products.Participation is also very convenient, just select the variety and "sell" the corresponding security code.
According to past experience, after the inter-seasonal period, that is, starting from July 1, the exchange rate of bond repurchase will likely fall back to the previous average level quickly.
In short, there is not much time window for "high interest rate".
In addition, market participants suggested that in addition to overnight varieties, investors can also pay attention to varieties with a slightly longer period, such as two-day to seven-day period varieties.
Although the interest rates of these term products are currently lower than those of overnight products, due to the longer holding period and subsequent overnight interest rates are likely to fall sharply, their comprehensive returns may be higher than rolling overnight reverse repurchase transactions. .
(Editor in charge: Guan Jing)
