The international gold price broke through the $2,000/oz mark on March 8 and April 18, respectively, hitting a periodical high of $2,078.8/oz and $2,003/oz.
Since the beginning of this year, under the influence of factors such as geopolitical risks and high overseas inflation, gold's functions of hedging and value preservation have become more prominent.The "Securities Daily" reporter found that as of now, the international gold price has exceeded 2,000 US dollars per ounce twice during the year, and the time point is similar to the high point of inflation and the point of interest rate hike in the United States.
In an interview with reporters, some institutional sources said that the international gold price exceeded $2,000 an ounce twice this year, reflecting that the market's confidence in the U.S. interest rate hike to curb inflation is not firm enough.Based on multiple factors, gold still has allocation value in the second half of the year and is expected to perform better.
High inflation pushes up gold prices
Since the beginning of this year, the economic recovery in Europe and the United States has been less than expected, coupled with high inflation in overseas markets, leading to substantial interest rate hikes by major central banks in Europe and the United States and rapid tightening of monetary policy expectations. Up to now, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates three times this year.Many institutions predict that the United States may raise interest rates seven times this year.
Gold, which has the strongest financial attributes among commodity assets, has shown a trend of rising and falling during the year.The reporter found that the international gold price stood at the US$2,000/oz mark on March 8 and April 18 this year, hitting a periodical high of US$2,078.8/oz and US$2,003/oz.In this regard, many institutions believe that this is due to the further prominent functions of gold's hedging and value preservation and appreciation.
Cao Shanshan, a senior researcher at COFCO Futures, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that gold is the commodity with the strongest financial attributes and is greatly affected by inflation.During the year, the inflation in overseas markets was high, and the superimposed geopolitical risks continued, and the anti-inflation and hedging properties of gold were further stimulated.However, due to the interest rate hike measures adopted by the United States, the price of gold fluctuated and fell after ascribed.
Jinxin Futures precious metals analyst Wang Zhiping added to reporters that gold, as an anti-inflation asset, is greatly affected by inflation.From a long-term perspective, the price trends of gold, crude oil and copper show a strong positive correlation.
The reporter found that the international gold price broke through the $2,000/oz mark for the first time this year on March 8, earlier than March 16, when the United States raised interest rates for the first time this year (only 25 basis points). After a period of correction, the international gold price reached 4. The "second breakthrough" was achieved on May 18, and the second rate hike in the United States this year was on May 4 (50 basis points). Since then, the international gold price has been running below the $2,000/oz mark.
In this regard, the Global Markets Department of Bank of China believes that in the early stage, investors were skeptical about the effect of the Fed's interest rate hike to control inflation, and the international gold price did not fall sharply after the first rate hike; after the second rate hike, the Fed's unconditional determination to fight inflation appeared. , the international gold price began to pull back, and ran below the $2,000/oz mark.The Fed's unconditional determination to fight inflation may affect market expectations to a certain extent, thus putting downward pressure on international gold prices, but the market's concerns about a hard landing of the US economy and the possibility of central banks increasing gold reserves will support international gold prices. Investors are still willing to allocate gold for risk hedging.
East Asia Qianhai Securities believes that the increasing imbalance between supply and demand is the main reason for the continued high inflation in the United States. Although the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates several times, it is expected to have a limited impact on combating inflation. Against the background of high inflation in the United States, as the best safe-haven asset, gold will welcome The perfect time to configure.According to the World Gold Council, in a market environment with high inflation (greater than 3%), the nominal return of gold is about 11.19%.
Some institutions believe that the price of gold is still expected to strengthen
Although the current international gold price has not broken the high point of the year again, it is still running above the $1,800/oz mark; as of press time, the main August gold contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) closed at $1,817/oz.When it comes to the trend in the second half of the year, most institutions believe that the international gold price may still strengthen.
Huang Tianchang from the China Derivatives Futures Market Department told the "Securities Daily" reporter that the main factor affecting the trend of international gold prices is still the United States' next step in raising interest rates.However, the current overseas market is still in a stage of high inflation. In the context of high inflation and strong interest rate hike expectations, investors are not optimistic about the recovery of overseas economies. Therefore, the safe-haven attribute of gold as a hard currency will be highlighted again.
"At present, the macro factors affecting the international gold price include global inflation and the Fed raising interest rates. Among them, the high inflation environment has created favorable conditions for the international gold price to rise, but the central banks of various countries will tighten their monetary policies." Wang Zhiping said.
"The international gold price reached the $2,000/oz mark twice this year, mainly because geopolitical risks directly pushed up market risks and the demand for hedging increased, and the international gold price rose sharply." High inflation in the market will still form a strong support for the later trend of international gold prices.
Some analysts believe that in order to combat high inflation, central banks in Europe and the United States have raised interest rates one after another, which will put pressure on gold prices.At the same time, the recent fall in commodity prices has also lowered inflation expectations, which may have a negative impact on international gold prices. Therefore, in the short term, gold prices may maintain a range-bound trend.
Our reporter Wang Ning
(Editor in charge: Jiang Ninglu)
