The industry expects that the credit supply will maintain a high level in the second half of the year
In the first five months of this year, new RMB loans totaled 10.8754 trillion yuan.Many experts interviewed by the "Securities Daily" reporter estimated that the scale of new RMB loans in June exceeded 2.4 trillion yuan, which indicates that RMB loans in the first half of this year are expected to hit a record high for the same period.
The "Securities Daily" reporter combed the financial data released by the People's Bank of China (hereinafter referred to as the "central bank") in the first half of 2001 and found that in the first half of 2021, the scale of new RMB loans was the highest in the same period, reaching 12.76 trillion yuan.
Although the scale of new RMB loans in the first half of this year has yet to be "completed" after the financial data is released in June, according to the aforementioned data, as long as the new RMB loans in June exceed 1.8846 trillion yuan, it will exceed that in the first half of 2021. scale level.
Regarding the scale of new RMB loans in June, Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Orient Jincheng, predicted in an interview with a reporter from Securities Daily that the scale of new loans in June is expected to reach 2.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 280 billion yuan over the same period last year. Yuan.There are two main supporting factors: First, represented by the increase in the 800 billion yuan credit line of policy banks, the policy support for infrastructure investment has increased significantly; as the economy transitions into the process of repair, manufacturing investment will remain relatively high. The rapid growth will drive the recovery of medium and long-term loans of enterprises to increase year-on-year.Second, the property market picked up in June, and it is expected that the year-on-year decline in medium- and long-term loans to residents, mainly housing loans, will narrow.
Liang Si, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that since May, the economic operation has begun to pick up, and the willingness of enterprises to raise funds has gradually increased.In addition, the economic stabilization policy continued to exert its force, and the effects were gradually showing.In addition, June itself is also a month for credit demand, so it is expected that new RMB loans in June will reach about 2.5 trillion yuan.
China Merchants Securities predicts that new loans will be 2.5 trillion yuan in June; the Zhang Yu team of Huachuang Securities estimates that new loans in June will be about 2.4 trillion yuan, corresponding to 2.6 trillion yuan in social financing.
In terms of the scale of new RMB loans in the first five months of the forecast data given by analysts and institutions in June, the new RMB loans in the first half of this year are expected to reach 13.3 trillion yuan, a record high for the same period in history."This means that in the context of the recent regulatory requirements to 'enhance the stability of the growth of total credit', the aggregate function of monetary policy counter-cyclical adjustment is being fully exerted." Wang Qing said.
Looking forward to the credit issuance in the second half of the year, Liang Si expects that the scale of credit issuance will remain at a relatively high level, which will promote economic recovery while effectively bail out enterprises.In addition, support for key economic areas and weak links will remain at a high level.For example, the growth rate of credit in areas such as inclusive small and micro enterprises, green development, and technological innovation is still expected to maintain a relatively high growth rate.
Wang Qing predicts that in the second half of the year, the credit issuance will show the characteristics of "high before and then slow, and generally maintain a high level".The next global economic downturn will drag down external demand, and domestic consumption recovery may be slow; the rebound in macroeconomic growth in the second half of the year will be moderate, the policy side will continue to provide a supportive monetary and financial environment, and credit issuance is expected to maintain a high intensity.In addition, the structural characteristics of credit issuance in the second half of the year will be more obvious.The infrastructure sector will become the focus of investment, the decline in real estate credit growth will gradually ease, and the growth of credit in key areas such as small and micro enterprises and technological innovation will continue to maintain a high level of over 20%.
