Financial data for June will be released soon.The agency predicts that under the effect of the steady economic policy effect and the continuous recovery of production and life, the financing demand will further improve in June, which will be reflected in the total amount and structural changes of financial data, especially the scale of new credit and social financing in the month may be high. compared to the previous month and the same period of the previous year.
Financing demand picks up
Bill interest rates have been on the rise recently.According to data from the Shanghai Commercial Paper Exchange, the 1-month, 3-month, and 6-month national stock bank bill rediscount rates reached a high point on June 23, reaching 1.87%, 1.82%, and 1.70%, respectively, higher than 6%. On the 1st, they increased by 0.51, 0.47 and 0.30 percentage points respectively.
According to analysis by Political Commissar Lu, chief economist of Industrial Bank, the rise in bill interest rates and the narrowing of the spread between bills and interbank certificates of deposit reflect the improvement in financing demand in June."Data show that both real estate and auto consumption picked up in June, driving related financing needs to improve."
As a traditional credit month in June, the scale of new loans is generally more optimistic.Data from the People's Bank of China showed that renminbi loans increased by 1.89 trillion yuan in May this year, compared with 1.50 trillion yuan and 2.12 trillion yuan in May and June last year, respectively.
Li Chao, chief economist of Zheshang Securities, said that with the weakening of the impact of the epidemic, the gradual restoration of production and living order, and the continuous implementation of economic stabilization measures, the financing needs of the real economy have improved marginally.Taking into account factors such as the large credit month and the rebound in financing demand, the data on new RMB loans in June will perform better.Sun Binbin, chief fixed income analyst at Tianfeng Securities, believes that the scale of new RMB loans in June will be higher than the same period in the past.
In terms of financing structure, Zhang Yu, chief macro analyst at Huachuang Securities, said that the recovery of commercial housing sales in 30 large and medium-sized cities means that the scale of medium and long-term loans to new residents in June has improved.The gradual recovery of consumption activities will also lead to an increase in demand for consumer credit.Yi Zheng, chief macro economist at Huatai Securities, said the recovery in commercial housing sales in hot cities is expected to boost residents' medium- and long-term credit supply.As the effects of economic stabilization policies appear, the data on medium and long-term corporate loans is expected to show marginal improvement.
The scale of social financing is considerable
Driven by credit issuance and government bond issuance, institutional sources predict that the increase in the scale of social financing in June is significantly higher than that of the previous month and the same period of the previous year, which will further accelerate the year-on-year growth rate of the stock of social financing.
The People's Bank of China previously announced that the increase in social financing in May this year was 2.79 trillion yuan, compared with 3.67 trillion yuan in June last year.
The accelerated issuance of local government bonds is an important factor driving the accelerated growth of social financing.Lu political commissar analyzed that due to the accelerated issuance of local bonds, the net financing of government bonds (including local bonds and government bonds) under the scale of social financing in June may exceed 1.60 trillion yuan.Net corporate bond financing was also higher than in May.
In terms of broad money (M2), Li Chao believes that factors such as heavy credit volume and accelerated fiscal spending in June have a positive impact on the year-on-year growth rate of M2. However, due to the higher base in the same period last year, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 in June may be slightly lower than the previous value. , still maintained a rapid double-digit growth.Zhang Yu believes that in the context of accelerated fiscal expenditure, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 is expected to remain relatively high.
(Editor in charge: Guan Jing)
