The A-share market has continued to rebound since the end of April, and there was a relatively obvious shock last week.However, industry insiders still hold a relatively positive attitude towards the overall performance of the A-share market, and believe that the independent market of A-shares is expected to continue further.In terms of allocation, the high-prosperity growth directions such as new energy, as well as the consumption and pharmaceutical fields are the main investment lines that securities companies are more optimistic about.
Positive view of the market outlook
After a rebound that lasted for more than two months, the three major stock indexes showed a more obvious trend of shock consolidation last week.As of July 8, the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.93% and 0.03% respectively for the whole week, both ending the weekly "five consecutive yang"; the GEM index continued to be in the red, but the GEM index has only been around 2800 recently. The point keeps fluctuating up and down.
"The market has entered a critical time window, and multiple factors have led to increased short-term market volatility." According to Qin Peijing, chief strategist at CITIC Securities, the performance of this interim report season is highly differentiated, which may induce funds to quickly adjust between sectors and industries. Warehouses, resulting in frequent, ups and downs fluctuations between the plates.It is precisely with the approaching of the mid-year report season and the face of external disturbances such as the epidemic that investors who enter the market later are more likely to be shaken in their mentality.In addition, external disturbance factors began to increase, and A-shares were more vulnerable to market sentiment after a sharp rebound.
Xun Yugen, chief strategist at Haitong Securities, believes that since the beginning of July, the market has shown a volatile pattern because the fundamental repair has not kept pace with the market's rise."The major A-share indexes have returned to the level at the beginning of March, but judging from the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value in May and the year-on-year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits in May, the fundamentals have not recovered to the level before March." Xun Yugen also It is emphasized that the time and space of this market recovery has been considerable, and it is normal for the current period of rest to occur.
Although faced with various factors in the short term, most brokerages still hold a relatively positive attitude towards the market outlook of A shares.Fang Yi, chief strategist at Guotai Junan Securities, believes that A-shares are expected to emerge from a relatively independent market when the overseas economic situation is not optimistic."In recent years, the market value of A-share consumption, pharmaceutical and technology growth sectors has increased, so the index is relatively desensitized to overseas factors. In addition, China's economic recovery and favorable policy factors have become an important support for A-shares."
Consumer industry will recover
"After the market rebounded for two months, it may move from the previous unilateral rise to a state of increased volatility. In the future, the market needs to see more obvious improvements in the capital level, more substantial repairs to growth expectations, and overseas markets. Gradually move towards stability.” According to Wang Hanfeng, chief strategist of CICC, the market has begun to pay attention to the sustainability of the relatively loose domestic liquidity environment in the context of the inverted long-term interest rate spread between China and the United States and the recent upward trend in domestic CPI.
"The short-term popularity of high-prosperity growth varieties has been at a high level, and further upside requires better fundamental data support. Among them, in terms of new energy vehicles, sales are the key factor in determining the degree of prosperity; in photovoltaics, we need to pay attention to silicon material prices and domestic and overseas demand; The performance of the consumer industry needs to be verified by the gradual recovery of consumption data. With reference to 2020, the fundamentals of the consumer industry may recover in the second half of the third quarter." Xun Yugen said.
Balanced allocation of new energy consumption and medicine
Regarding the allocation of the market outlook, Dai Kang, chief strategist of GF Securities, believes that "growth dominates" and is optimistic about large-cap growth stocks with high economic certainty. It is recommended to allocate Chinese advantageous assets around three main lines."One is manufacturing and automobiles (including new energy vehicles), photovoltaic modules, retail, etc.; the second is Internet media, innovative drugs, and real estate; the third is coal, potash fertilizer and aquaculture."
Qin Peijing continued to suggest a balanced allocation around growth manufacturing, medicine and consumption."The growth manufacturing sector focuses on smart cars, photovoltaics, wind power, semiconductors, and military industries; the consumer sector focuses on the repair of damaged industries, as well as sub-sectors that still maintain high prosperity in the context of local epidemics; the pharmaceutical industry may usher in periodic valuations Repair the market and focus on innovative drugs, medical devices, CXO, and medical services.”
The mid-term report of listed companies has continued to be released recently. According to Chen Guo, chief strategy officer of China Securities, the impact of the mid-term report on the recent market is still positive. On the whole, companies with high growth or higher-than-expected results in the second quarter are mainly concentrated. In the fields of photovoltaics, lithium batteries, semiconductors, medicine and shipping, the prosperity of the new energy sector is expected to remain upward in the third quarter."In the context of the current fall in commodity prices, it is recommended to focus on new energy, food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, chemical industry, military industry, and medical sectors."
(Editor in charge: Guan Jing)
