On July 11, a "big melon" appeared in A shares.
On the evening of July 10, Ying Ying, the wife of Xu Xiang, the former "Private Equity Brother", commented on Tianqi Lithium (SZ002466, stock price 134.45 yuan, market value of 198.6 billion yuan) in more than 20 words.The next day, the leading lithium battery stock fell on the limit-down board less than half an hour after the opening in the morning, and its market value also fell below the 200 billion yuan mark.
In this regard, many netizens ridiculed: "The helm is still the helm, is this Xu Xiang's point of view?" On the other hand, all parties who hold or pay attention to Tianqi Lithium are also busy.Tianqi Lithium said: "The company is currently operating normally." The brokerage analyst said: "The bearish remarks have no basis." The fund manager said: "The profit center is upward in the long run." The lawyer said: "Illegal release of securities research reports ."
The non-ferrous metals team of CITIC Securities also analyzed lithium prices and the lithium sector. It believes that the sharp adjustment of related stocks is more of an emotional factor than fundamentals. Since the end of April, the lithium sector has rebounded by more than 100%, and some underlyings have risen by more than 150%. %, is the strongest link in the entire new energy industry chain and metal sub-sectors.At the top of the tuyere, the lithium sector is also prone to large fluctuations with changes in market sentiment, such as high-level exits or concerns about tightening liquidity.
On the evening of July 11, in response to the fluctuation of Tianqi Lithium's stock price, Ying Ying replied in a text message to Ye Xiaodan, a reporter from "Daily Economic News": "I will not comment on individual stocks in the future, I just want to remind my fans to pay attention to the risks. , I have repeatedly emphasized that I have no connection with Xu Xiang, it is my personal opinion, and I will not comment on individual stocks next time."
Ying Ying: Tianqi Lithium is overvalued
At the end of April, after the stock price hit a low near 59 yuan, Tianqi Lithium suddenly staged a "bull rise". On July 6, the stock price approached a maximum of 150 yuan per share, with a range increase of more than 122%.The increase is too high, when will it pull back?Many people did not expect that it would be implemented in such a way.
On the evening of July 10, Xu Xiang's wife Ying Ying released a weekly market review.She wrote at the end of the review: "I personally think: 002466 Tianqi Lithium Davies double-click has reached its peak, and the price has been overvalued." This is also the first time Ying Ying has publicly commented on a stock.
On the morning of July 11, Tianqi Lithium closed the daily limit in less than half an hour, and finally opened the daily limit ten minutes before the close. As of the close, the decline was 9.16%.
It is worth noting that since July, Ying Ying began to publish "Weekly Market Comments" on her personal account, expressing her personal views on the market and hotspots.
Earlier, Ying Ying said that her views on the market came from her own and had nothing to do with Xu Xiang. I used to be a securities practitioner, and I have always been concerned about the market, and I will often review the market. And hope to be able to write a review every week.
According to the data from the China Securities Association, Ying Ying obtained the general securities business qualification on May 14, 2004, and resigned and cancelled it on February 5, 2009.
Regarding the trend of Tianqi Lithium Industry on July 11, the company responded: "According to Ying Ying's public response last night (on the evening of July 10), she does not have a stock account and does not buy or sell stocks. Qi Lithium shares. At the same time, we also remind investors to rationally view market comments and pay attention to investment risks. The company is currently operating normally. "
Analyst: There is no basis for bearishness
As to why she came to the conclusion that "the price of Tianqi Lithium is too high", Ying Ying once said to the public: "My own personal views, both technical and fundamental analysis." However, such a view has also aroused the market's opinion Hot discussion on the investment value of lithium mines.
The environmental protection and low-carbon team of Huaxi Securities said that recently, a certain person commented that Tianqi Lithium was overvalued. The team seems to be completely false. There is no substantive evidence to prove that Tianqi Lithium is overvalued, and the company's fundamentals are in continuous improvement. stage.The company has successfully issued Hong Kong shares, the collar option has been successfully resolved, and the debt problem has been further optimized.The company owns the Talison lithium concentrate with the best resource endowment in the world. In 2022Q1, the Talison tailings plant has a production capacity of 280,000 tons/year. It is currently in the stage of ramping up production capacity, and the output of lithium concentrate will be further released. At the same time, the company participates in the world's best salt lake resources. , get generous dividends from SQM.In addition, the company's Cuola spodumene mine in Sichuan will also resume construction.In the second half of the year, as the impact of the epidemic subsides, the new energy industry chain is willing to rush to work to make up for the production loss caused by the epidemic from March to May.The acceleration of downstream production scheduling will increase the consumption of lithium salt and drive the price of lithium salt to rebound.At this stage, lithium salt prices still maintain a relatively stable trend. At present, the downstream is in the stage of depleting inventory. In late July, centralized procurement will be ushered in. At that time, lithium prices are expected to resume the upward trend.
The non-ferrous metals team of CITIC Securities believes that the current mainstream transaction price of lithium is 480,000 yuan / ton. The results of the industry chain survey show that the enthusiasm of downstream purchases has continued to increase, and upstream companies are somewhat reluctant to sell.The reason why the price has not risen as expected is that imported lithium carbonate has been concentrated in Hong Kong since June, and the production of salt lakes is at a high level. At present, the supply of lithium is actually at the high point of the year, and the market supply is relatively sufficient.Judging from the price trend of the past two years, the price increase will actually happen at the end of July.The same is expected this year, and this week's auction of Australian mines could also be the trigger for higher prices.Overall, the certainty of lithium prices rising in the second half of the year is high, but due to the accumulation of inventories in the industrial chain, the price increase is expected to be lower than the market's previous optimistic expectations.
"In addition, from the perspective of stock price, we have previously defined the rebound of this round of lithium sector as a quarterly market, and still maintain this judgment. At present, 'lithium prices have risen', 'second-quarter performance has increased significantly' and 'the market is worried about lithium prices being too high' Phased elimination' these three core positives have not disappeared, and the sector has not seen any negative factors. It is recommended to pay close attention to whether the Australian mine auction price this week and the lithium price at the end of the month can rise as scheduled, and the sector still has allocation opportunities after the emotional selloff. ."
Fund Manager: The logic will not change
In the past two years, new energy has been the most popular track in the A-share market, and lithium ore is the leader in the sub-track.
Tianqi Lithium is undoubtedly the "favorite" of the institution.Wind data shows that as of March 31, 2022, a total of 280 funds held about 193 million shares, with a total market value of about 1.596 billion yuan.
"I was still surprised today (July 11), how did (Tianqi Lithium) suddenly drop to the limit, my colleague told me about it, and I didn't pay attention to it when I was busy before." A fund manager told reporters in a telephone interview.
The fund manager further said: "The sustainability of profitability should still be possible. In the short term, after the production of new energy vehicles in the third and fourth quarters, the price of lithium may continue to rise, and it will be weaker next year. It is estimated that the increase will come out next year. It will be more, but its center is upward. Relatively speaking, after all, new energy is a field that recovers faster after the epidemic, and it is indeed supported by policies, and local governments have issued subsidies. As for whether to sell or not , the number of funds held is not small, each fund manager has different ideas, and it is difficult to have a consistent view.”
A fund manager in Shanghai told reporters on the phone: "I think this is just an accidental factor, and the entire sector is adjusting. PV and other early-stage gains are also adjusting. As far as valuation is concerned, everyone has different opinions. Anyway, I think it is quite expensive. As for whether the fund manager will reduce their positions, it will not be because of one sentence, but what is the reason for their optimism and what part of the money they want to make?"
Lawyer: Suspected of illegally publishing research reports
As Xu Xiang's wife, Ying Ying's previous behavior has also attracted much attention.This time Ying Ying's comments on individual stocks have sparked heated discussions in the market.
Earlier, Ying Ying responded that she was not qualified to invest.So how should you view the behavior of its commenting on individual stocks?
Some fund company investment researchers believe that a person who does not even have securities consulting qualifications publishes specious views without data, logic and arguments, and is essentially using his own influence to manipulate stock prices.Do regulators acquiesce to this manipulation of stock prices?It should be clear about the interest chain behind the investigation, and whether there is any behavior of short-selling and manipulating stock prices to fall and buy bottoms.
Attorney Wan Miaoyan, director of Sichuan Dingchi Law Firm, told the "Daily Economic News" reporter on WeChat that although Ying Ying has filed for divorce from Xu Xiang in the Shanghai Huangpu District Court, dividing the family property and clarifying the direct custody of the children Litigation, but before the divorce judgment took effect, and Xu Xiang was still in the husband and wife relationship.
The mutual agency between husbands and wives under Chinese law is limited to the daily needs of the family, but both Xu Xiang and Ying Ying should know that when Ying Ying reviews individual stocks as Xu Xiang's wife, investors will take Xu Xiang's previous judgments on individual stocks, The cognitive halo of manipulative power is transferred to Xu Xiang's wife, and Ying Ying's judgment (the public will think that Xu Xiang speaks in the name of his wife) is the basis for his own decision to buy or sell.
As Xu Xiang's wife, Ying Ying also became a public celebrity because of her imprisonment and divorce proceedings with Xu Xiang.Ying Ying has general securities practice qualifications, but is currently resigned, and securities analysts have special qualifications in the securities industry.
In judicial practice, WeChat official accounts are considered to have new media attributes.Ying Ying's comment on individual stocks is an act of publishing securities research reports in violation of regulations.
As for whether this behavior that the market is concerned about is market manipulation, lawyer Wan Miaoyan further stated that in 2016, the China Securities Regulatory Commission had accused Liu Qintao, a journalist from Jinan, who did not have the qualifications to practice securities, for publishing unconfirmed rumors of Dongguan securities clearance in the Oriental Fortune Stock Bar. information, an administrative penalty of 150,000 yuan will be imposed.
Ying Ying's comments on Tianqi Lithium have caused many investors to sell their stocks. To determine whether Ying Ying is "manipulating the securities market" under Article 55 of the Securities Law, it depends on whether the basis for her release is "" False or uncertain information”, that is, whether the basis of her analysis comes from the public information released by Tianqi Lithium in accordance with the rules of information disclosure, completely excluding the leakage of inside information, and whether she and Xu Xiang’s stakeholders have The act of taking profits in the air.
On April 29, 2016, Xinhua News Agency released news that Xu Xiang and others were arrested on suspicion of securities market manipulation and insider trading crimes.Recalling the way of growth, Xu Xiang stood out from the hot money and became the "leader of the death squad"; in Shanghai, he formed an alliance with the controller or important shareholder of a listed company, deeply involved in the reorganization theme, and quickly became "a private equity brother".
