On July 11, the People's Bank of China released data showing that at the end of June, the balance of broad money (M_2) was 258.15 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, and the growth rate was 0.3 and 2.8 percentage points higher than the end of the previous month and the same period of the previous year, respectively.In June, RMB loans increased by 2.81 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 686.7 billion yuan; social financing scale increased by 5.17 trillion yuan, 1.47 trillion yuan more than the same period last year.
Industry insiders believe that with the implementation of various policies to stabilize growth, financial institutions continue to increase their support for the real economy, the effective demand for credit has rebounded significantly, and the credit structure has been significantly optimized. The overall financial data in June exceeded market expectations, indicating that the macro economy will continue. recovery for the better.
"Credit and social financing surged sharply in June, exceeding market expectations. There are several reasons for this: First, the recovery momentum of the macro economy has further strengthened, and the real estate market has also picked up, driving the demand for financing of the real economy to pick up; second, the package of policies to stabilize the economy has accelerated. The implementation of financial support has further strengthened the steady growth, and boosted the substantial increase in medium and long-term loans of enterprises compared with the same period last year; third, the issuance of special bonds has ushered in a historical peak." said Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Orient Jincheng.
Wang Yunjin, a senior researcher at the Zhixin Investment Research Institute, said that in the second quarter, a number of bailout policies were implemented intensively, which had a significant effect on the growth of credit and social financing.The market liquidity was relatively abundant in the second quarter. Policies such as supporting the extension of small, medium and micro loans and residential housing loans, adding a national financing guarantee fund of 1 trillion yuan, and issuing a policy bank credit line of 800 billion yuan were intensively implemented. Active fiscal policies continued to be issued. It has effectively achieved stable stock expansion and played a good policy effect on the reasonable growth of credit and social financing.
Another feature of financial data in June is that the structure has improved significantly, which is reflected in the rebound in the proportion of medium and long-term loans to enterprises and residents, and the ease of bill impulse.Wang Qing said that with the economic recovery, banks' risk appetite has improved, and their willingness to provide medium and long-term loans to the real economy has increased.On the whole, the growth rates of credit, social financing and M_2 all rose in June, indicating that under the combined effect of policy force and the mitigation of the epidemic, the credit easing effect is fully manifested.This will lay a solid foundation for the economy in the second half of the year.
Specifically, the growth rate of M_2 remains high.Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, believes that the reasons are as follows: First, under the background of stable growth, liquidity is abundant and credit issuance is accelerated.Since April, under the influence of factors such as the comprehensive RRR cut and the continuous development of structural monetary policy tools, the market liquidity has been in a relatively abundant state. Banks have increased their credit supply, and the currency derivative effect has been strengthened. Second, fiscal expenditure has accelerated.In June, fiscal deposits decreased by 436.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.5 billion yuan, and the liquidity of the banking system increased; third, the pressure drop of non-standard financing slowed down.
In terms of credit structure, both business and household financing needs improved in June.Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Market Department of China Everbright Bank, believes that the strong rebound in medium and long-term loans of enterprises and the decline in bill financing reflect the recovery of enterprises' willingness to invest.Residents' short-term new loans increased year-on-year, which also reflects the obvious recovery of residents' consumption demand."In June, new bill financing was the lowest level in the past 14 months, and the impulse phenomenon has improved significantly; many places have lifted restrictions, consumption, especially automobile consumption, has improved to a certain extent, and household credit has returned to the level of the same period last year." Wang Yunjin said.
Fiscal efforts have brought about a substantial increase in government bond financing, which is also one of the main forces driving the increase in social financing.Wang Yunjin believes that in the first half of the year, the issuance of local government special bonds has basically completed the annual quota; in June, the direct financing of enterprises has recovered, with an additional financing of 308.3 billion yuan, and the issuance of the bond market has improved.The three off-balance sheet financings continued to decline in the second quarter, but the scale decreased month by month.RMB loans on the basis of social financing increased by more than 3 trillion yuan, indicating that loans from non-bank financial institutions have declined.
Wen Bin said that in the next stage, under the policy goals of stabilizing employment, prices, and growth, monetary policy will continue to play the dual functions of total volume and structure, guide financial institutions to increase support for inclusive small and micro loans, and focus on stabilizing the industrial chain. Supply chain, give full play to the effect of the rescue policy to help enterprises, reduce the comprehensive financing cost of enterprises, and fully support the real economy.
In order to promote the return of economic operation to normal as soon as possible, the financial data will continue to be strong in the short term.Wang Qing predicts that the domestic inflation situation will be stable, the monetary policy will maintain a strong continuity in the direction of stable growth in the second half of the year, and the tightening of the external financial environment will not shake the policy tone of "me-based".
