Some of the company's performance forecasts to be disclosed in the interim report in July
Data source: Wind
From July 15, the disclosure of semi-annual reports of A-share listed companies will start.Wind data shows that 106 companies will be the first to disclose their performance within the month.According to the announcement of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, the Shanghai-listed company Meihua Bio will be the first to disclose the mid-term report on the 15th, and the Shenzhen-listed companies Wohua Medicine and Mike Bio will also disclose the mid-term report on the 16th.Institutional sources said that with the advent of the "interim report season", the market will enter a period of performance verification and usher in a phased focus. The continuous high prosperity of the interim report and the inflection point of the industry will become an important configuration clue.
Nearly 80% of more than 350 companies announced their interim results
Wind data shows that as of the press release on July 12, more than 350 listed companies have disclosed their interim performance forecasts.Judging from the changes in net profit forecast, the proportion of companies with pre-happy results accounted for more than 78%. Among them, 202 listed companies had pre-increased performance, 12 had continued profits, 16 had turned losses, and 45 had slightly increased.Specifically, Yujing Co., Ltd., Brother Technology, Chuangyuan Co., Ltd., Agricultural Development Seed Industry, Tibet Mining Industry, Tianhua Ultra-cleaning and Shengxin Lithium Energy reported the largest changes in net profit, which were 3316.02%, 3294.47%, and 2698.13 respectively. %, 1523.65%, 1146.4%, 1067.67% and 897.04%, and there are nearly 140 companies that predict that the upper limit of net profit growth exceeds 100%.
On the whole, the data of most companies in the new energy field is outstanding, and the performance of biomedicine, electronics, computers and other fields is also relatively outstanding.In the photovoltaic field, in addition to the substantial increase in the performance of Yujing, the performance forecast of the photovoltaic leader Tongwei has also attracted market attention.According to the announcement, in the first half of the year, the company is expected to achieve a net profit of 12 billion to 12.5 billion yuan attributable to the parent, a year-on-year increase of 304.62% to 321.48%.Tongwei's net profit attributable to its parent company in 2021 is 8.208 billion yuan, which means that the company's profit in the first half of this year has exceeded that of last year.In addition, Shuangliang Energy Saving, Zhejiang Xinneng, Sanfu Co., Ltd. and Yijing Optoelectronics’ net profit pre-increase ratio is also more than 100% year-on-year.In the field of biomedicine, the latest performance forecast disclosed by WuXi PharmaTech on the evening of July 11 also exceeded previous expectations. The company expects to achieve a year-on-year increase of about 66.16% in operating income in the second quarter, exceeding the company’s previously announced 63% to 65% in the second quarter. Projected revenue growth rate.
Among the companies that have released performance forecasts, companies such as Meihua Biology, Agricultural Development Seed Industry, Shengxin Lithium Energy, and Fengyuan Co., Ltd. will release their interim reports within the month.It is expected that Meihua Bio, the first amino acid leader to disclose the mid-year report, will achieve an exceeding-expected growth in its performance forecast.According to the announcement, during the reporting period, the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 2.5 billion to 2.6 billion yuan, an increase of 1.496 billion yuan to 1.596 billion yuan compared with the same period of the previous year, an increase of 149% to 159 million yuan. %.Agricultural Development Seed Industry, which will disclose its interim results on July 21, is expected to turn losses into profits in the first half of the year.Shengxin Lithium Energy, which will be the first to "show performance" in the new energy industry chain, has also gained a lot. According to the performance forecast, benefiting from the strong growth in demand for lithium salts from downstream customers, the sales price of Shengxin Lithium Energy's lithium salts is higher than that of the same period last year. A substantial increase, the company's performance in the first half of the year increased significantly compared with the same period of the previous year, with a net profit of about 2.6 billion to 2.9 billion yuan, a change of 793.9% to 897.04%.
The market enters the period of performance verification, and institutions pay attention to "high prosperity"
Institutional sources said that with the advent of the "interim report season", the market will enter a period of performance verification, and areas with supported performance may obtain excess returns in a volatile market environment.In the second half of the year, there is a high probability that A-shares will still be dominated by structural opportunities, and performance will become the core dominant factor in the market.On the disk, the recent "interim report" has gradually fermented, and the Wind pre-increase concept index has increased by more than 7% since July.
"Since the end of April, the A-share market has continued its upward trend under the support of factors such as the improvement of the epidemic, active policies and relatively loose liquidity. In particular, the direction of manufacturing growth has shown relative performance in this round of rebound. After the repair, the performance of the interim report may be one of the key factors to test the current round of growth, especially the quality of the growth style." CICC expects that the market will be dominated by structural opportunities in the second half of the year, and areas with supported performance may be in a volatile market environment. If there are excess returns, in the stage of performance forecast and bulletin disclosure, you can focus on three main investment lines: areas that benefit from economic recovery and policy support, and are relatively sensitive to policies; high-prosperity areas where the performance of the interim report exceeds expectations or the month-on-month improvement; A sector where the fundamentals face an inflection point and gradually bottom out.
Zhongtai Securities said that on the whole, the interim report forecast has good investment guiding significance.Historically, the collection of stocks with a forecast growth rate of more than 50% in the interim report can often obtain good returns after the forecast is disclosed.On the whole, among the four factors of market value, valuation, ROE (return on equity) and the number of companies covered by institutions, when more than 20% of companies with high ROE disclosed high growth forecasts, the winning rate and odds in the future period will be the same. There will be a good attraction.In addition, the value and consumption sectors with cyclical attributes or stable performance are more prone to "interim report forecast market".CITIC Construction Investment believes that the sectors that are expected to maintain a relatively high growth rate in the second quarter are still concentrated in new energy, high-end manufacturing, medicine and resource products.In addition, some varieties with poor performance expectations but established recovery trends are also expected to usher in better market performance after the "boots landed".
"After the market rebounded for two months, there is a high probability that it will change from the previous unilateral rise to a state of increased volatility. In the short term, it is still a shock under the weak recovery of profits. You can still pay attention to the industry round under the improvement of performance and oversold recovery. move." Manulife TEDA said that it is recommended to allocate industries in a balanced manner, and it is still optimistic about new energy vehicles and photovoltaics with a high degree of prosperity in the medium term.
"This Friday is about to enter the 'interim report season', and it is expected that performance will become the focus of the market's periodic attention. From the perspective of the booming industry, the performance of the relatively stagnant sectors such as military industry and pharmaceuticals in the early stage is more certain and relatively cost-effective." Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund also reminded that due to the large increase in the previous period, with the arrival of the performance window period, the market will enter the performance verification period, and the volatility will increase relatively.Qiu Xiang, co-chief strategist of CITIC Securities, also reminded that the market will enter a critical time window. It is expected that this year's mid-term report season will be a period when the performance of listed companies in recent years has been greatly differentiated, and it is easy to induce rapid adjustment of positions between sectors and industries. High prosperity and industries with inflection points are the most important configuration clues.From the perspective of the market structure, the conversion of new and old energy sources is still the core clue of performance exceeding expectations in the "interim report season".
"With the effective control of the epidemic in various places and the steady recovery of economic fundamentals in the second half of the year, many companies, including consumer companies, have strong post-epidemic recovery expectations and performance flexibility, and are expected to usher in profit growth opportunities." Qianhai Open Source Fund Chief Economist Yang Delong told reporters, "The external impact is temporary, and the key depends on the long-term investment value of the company. Judging from the performance forecast from the mid-term report, the current boom in new energy industries such as lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and wind power is relatively high. The performance will also be more dazzling, which is also the direction of focus.”
