Investment is a long-term thing, and it can be long enough to witness a company go from being unnoticed in the capital market to being bought by institutions, and then to a market value of one trillion yuan.
With the gradual smooth flow of the domestic auto industry supply chain, the successive implementation of multiple auto consumption policies, and the company's sales data continuing to exceed expectations, BYD's stock price has risen by nearly 50% in the past month, and the market value gap with the Ningde era has narrowed to " One step away,” and jumped to third in the world’s latest car company market capitalization rankings, behind Tesla and Toyota.
Regarding BYD's investment, the most commendable thing is the 14-year persistence of "stock god" Buffett.As early as 2008, Buffett bought 225 million shares of BYD Hong Kong stocks at a price of HK$8 per share. As of the latest statistics, one share has not been moved, with a return on investment of about 38 times and a profit of about HK$68.7 billion.Among the public funds, since the listing of BYD's A shares in 2011, there have been many stories of "joy" and "regret".
BYD in the eyes of public fundraising champions
In the new energy investment boom in the past three years, BYD, the leader in the lithium battery concept, has become a new favorite in the market favored by capital.With the rapid progress of the stock price, the public funds holding BYD have also benefited.According to the statistics of Ji'an Jinxin Fund Evaluation Center, the funds in BYD's "fan group" have expanded from 84 three years ago to 473 at the end of the first quarter of this year, and the market value of BYD held by funds has increased from 36 three years ago. 100 million yuan expanded to 27 billion yuan.
A public fund manager in Shanghai has started to invest heavily in BYD since 2019. According to him, the main reason for buying BYD at that time was because he was optimistic about BYD's lithium iron phosphate technology. Applicability, and the company has the R&D and production capacity of industrial chain integration, and the internal organizational structure has been reasonably integrated and adjusted. At the same time, he is also optimistic about the rise of China's independent auto brands.
With the continuous tracking after the purchase, he is more convinced of his investment, "BYD has its own battery technology, its own semiconductor technology and vehicle manufacturing capabilities. It is a real hard technology company, and with the future intelligent driving platform In the past two years, BYD has been the No. 1 heavyweight stock of the fund he manages, bringing huge profit returns to the investment portfolio.According to statistics, since the beginning of 2019, BYD's stock price has risen by 587%.
Although he did not buy it earlier, a fund manager in southern China still seized the "right" investment opportunity of this round of new energy. He started to buy BYD aggressively from the second quarter of 2021, and also made a lot of profits.The fund manager said that when he bought it, the market was only valuing lithium batteries, not the entire vehicle, but now the market has begun to value the entire vehicle, so BYD's stock price has risen sharply again recently.Looking back, BYD's share price has doubled since the low point in the second quarter of 2021.
In addition, the 2021 public offering champion Cui Chenlong also began to buy BYD aggressively in the third quarter of that year. As of the end of the fourth quarter, Qianhai Kaiyuan New Economy and Qianhai Kaiyuan Public Utility under his management held 4,181,400 shares and 3,950,600 BYD shares respectively. share.At that time, in an interview with a Securities Times reporter, he expressed his optimism about the new energy vehicle sector, believing that the sector has high-prosperity industry fundamentals and huge development space.
At that time, the new energy vehicle sector was already at a relatively high valuation level. In Cui Chenlong's view, the valuation level is a static and limited indicator, which has certain reference significance, but the market cannot be judged only by valuation. The long-term investment value still depends on the space and barriers.From a long-term perspective, the development space of new energy vehicles is huge, and it is still in the early stage of development.
As of the end of the first quarter of 2022, Qianhai Open Source Fund has become the public fund company that holds the most shares of BYD. A total of 24 funds under its umbrella hold a total of 18.5882 million shares of BYD, accounting for 1.61% of BYD's outstanding shares. Cui Chenlong manages the above 2 Only funds held a total of 7.1971 million shares.
Xingquan Fund was the first to "get on the train"
The memory of the capital market is always relatively short. Today's hot BYD was shunned by many institutions at the beginning of its A-share listing.
Back in June 2011, BYD, which had been planning to return to the A-share market for three years, finally got its wish. However, at that time, it faced negative effects such as declining performance, Internet withdrawal, and lawsuits, and its H-share stock price fell from HK $80 to 27 Hong Kong dollars, most institutions are not optimistic about the company's performance after returning to A shares, which also makes BYD's new shares issued offline only one public fund, Industrial Securities Global (still called "Industry Global") participated.At that time, the three funds of Industrial Securities Global were allocated a total of 7 million shares, accounting for 10.95% of the circulating A shares, of which Xingquan Trend Investment, which was later taken over by Dong Chengfei at the end of October 2013, was allocated 3 million shares.
After the listing, BYD has successively caused layoffs and airbag incidents, and the company's stock price has been sluggish.Facing the company's various twists and turns, in the third quarter of 2011, Xingquan Global Vision shares managed by Dong Chengfei bought BYD for the first time, and held 4,456,800 shares at the end of the year. By the end of the third quarter of 2012, BYD entered the top ten stocks of Xingquan Global Vision for the first time. Heavy holding stocks, BYD was one of the fund's top ten holding stocks for 12 consecutive quarters until the second quarter of 2015.As of the end of the second quarter of 2015, two funds managed by Dong Chengfei, Xingquan Global Vision Stock and Xingquan Trend Investment, held a total of 15.0747 million shares of BYD.
In the third quarter of 2015, in the context of the sharp market decline, Dong Chengfei significantly lightened up BYD's position.In 2016, it began to increase its positions again. In the six consecutive quarters from the first quarter of 2016 to the second quarter of 2017, BYD has entered the top ten stocks of Xingquan Trend Investment.Since then, the position has started to decrease, and it has been completely withdrawn by the end of the third quarter of 2018.
Dong Chengfei has always been known for "accurately escaping the top", and the time to lighten his positions twice is also in line with the market trend, but from the final result, he has only reaped periodic benefits.Statistics from two time periods show that from the end of the third quarter of 2012 to the end of the second quarter of 2015, BYD rose by 253%, and from the beginning of 2016 to the end of the third quarter of 2018, BYD's stock price fell by 20%.
"Although BYD has risen so much later, it cannot be said that it was wrong to sell at that time." An industry insider told the Securities Times reporter that in the four and a half years from the second half of 2015 to the end of 2019, BYD's stock price has been There is no particularly big change, and the adjustment is also to find other better investment opportunities.It is impossible for public fund managers to hold shares like Buffett. The insurance companies Buffett invests in can bring a lot of cash flow to Berkshire, but public fund managers have to face the purchase and redemption of funds at any time. If the short-term performance is not good , it may be abandoned by fund holders.
Since then, the investment of funds under Industrial Securities Global in BYD has gradually faded. Only Xie Zhiyu bought BYD again roughly in the second quarter of 2020. At the end of the third quarter and the fourth quarter, BYD entered the top ten positions of Xie Zhiyu’s representative, Xingquan Herun. There are no positions at the end of the first quarter of 2021.According to statistics, from the beginning of the second quarter of 2020 to the end of the first quarter of 2021, BYD's stock price rose by about 200%.
Later, at the end of April 2021, Dong Chengfei himself mentioned, "As the first batch of people to buy electric vehicles, it was Yang Dong who brought us into contact with the new energy industry or to understand the electric vehicle industry, and we bought it very early. New energy vehicles, the license plate of new energy is still the traditional license plate. We bought it before there was a special license plate, so in fact, after using it for so many years, I have been trying it as a user constantly, and constantly comprehend this market and this industry. "
"Now you ask me what this industry is like. My feeling is a pot of porridge, a hodgepodge of porridge. The future model will undergo earth-shaking changes. Does the popularity of autonomous driving mean that every family has a car, or does it have a society? Public institutions provide a large number of vehicles? So, will the entire industry model still sell 80 million vehicles globally in 20 years? It is also possible that 30 million vehicles will be sufficient. This is an era of redefining the market pattern.” Dong Chengfei said at the time.
It is quite embarrassing that as of the end of the first quarter of 2022, only one fund under Xingquan Fund held 367,100 BYD shares, accounting for 0.03% of the circulating A shares, and BYD's share price was higher than the issue price of 18 yuan per share in that year. rose nearly 19 times.Since June 12, 2015, when the Shanghai Composite Index hit a high of 5,178 points, BYD has risen by 380% so far.
How to go after the trillion market value?
BYD's business currently spans many trillion-dollar markets such as energy storage, batteries, electric vehicles, and chips, and has accumulated certain competitiveness in various fields.Standing at the current point in time, will BYD continue to rush to the market value of 1.5 trillion announced by some institutions, or will it experience long or short adjustments?Currently, no fund manager can give an accurate answer.
"The mid- and long-term value of an enterprise comes from the development of its industry and the improvement of its own competitiveness." In the opinion of the aforementioned Shanghai public fund manager, BYD is currently developing well in various product lines, and its products have also won awards. Recognized by many customers at home and abroad, the market share is also continuously strengthened. Of course, the development of the company still needs to be tracked and verified step by step.
However, some fund managers bluntly said that BYD's ability to make money is still weak, and the long-term uncertainty is very strong.Indeed, one thing that cannot be ignored is that BYD has not yet gotten rid of the situation of "increasing revenue without increasing profits".According to the financial report data, in the first quarter of 2022, BYD's total operating income was 66.825 billion yuan, the net profit was 808 million yuan, and the net profit rate was only 1.36%.Specific to the automotive business, according to Citi estimates, the gross profit margin of BYD's automotive business in the first quarter was about 15.6%.In contrast, NIO, a new car-making force that has not achieved profitability, and the ideal gross profit margin are both around 20%, while Tesla's car gross profit margin in the first quarter of this year reached 32.9%.
It can be said that optimistic people are still optimistic. A fund manager in South China recently expressed his firm optimism for the new energy vehicle sector again.In his view, the penetration rate of new energy companies reached 15% last year, and reached 25% in April this year; in the future, it will gradually reach 50%, and even is expected to reach 100%, which will bring the lithium battery industry chain great development.
Relatively cautious people have reservations about the future demand for new energy vehicles. Dong Chengfei, who was "running for smuggling", recently expressed his views on new energy vehicles. He said that new energy vehicles have risen significantly due to the rise of upstream raw materials. Prices, and then superimposed the decline of subsidies, which greatly inhibited the demand for new energy vehicles."The increase in the popularity of new energy vehicles in big cities is largely due to purchase restrictions. The purchasing power of big cities is very strong, and the price increase has little impact. But the further back, the more the new energy vehicle industry needs to be driven by second- and third-tier cities. , these places are more sensitive to prices, which may be due to price increases to suppress demand." Dong Chengfei has previously said to the outside world.
