Securities Times reporter Pei Lirui
Under the disturbance of complex macro factors, the bond markets at home and abroad have been turbulent recently.Overseas, the U.S. inflation data exceeded expectations, which made the market’s expectations for the tightening of monetary policies in Europe and the United States heated up again, and U.S. bonds resumed their decline; domestically, with the improvement of the epidemic and the continuous introduction of policies to stabilize growth, the previously too pessimistic economic downturn was expected. After a certain degree of correction, the bond market is also facing adjustment pressure.
Reflected at the fund level, bond QDII funds investing overseas led the decline, and some products fell by more than 30% during the year; at the same time, the domestic bond market also experienced a short-term "bull market" in May and entered a shock adjustment, with over 70% of bonds Earnings have been negative since June, a general decline.
Some fund companies predict that the short-term bond market may continue to fluctuate as a whole. Under the force of a package of "steady growth" policies, June will be an important window period to reflect the effect of the policy. Economic data will verify the "inflection point" of fundamentals at the earliest or at In July, the bond market had a high probability of continuing the "U-shaped bottom" consolidation.
Bond markets at home and abroad are disturbed
Last Friday (June 10), China and the United States released the core economic and consumption data for May on the same day. Among them, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released data showing that the U.S. CPI in May rose 8.6% year-on-year, the highest level since December 1981. CPI increased by 1% month-on-month, significantly higher than the expected 0.7% and the previous month's 0.3%.
The CPI data hit the market's expectation of peaking inflation. After the release of the data on the day, the yields of U.S. Treasury bonds rose across the board. The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose above 3.10% intraday for the first time in a month, and rose by more than 10 basis points in the day. The 3-year U.S. Treasury bond yield rose 23.5 basis points to 3.244%. The 2-year U.S. Treasury bond yield, which is more sensitive to the outlook for interest rates, rose above 3.00% intraday, hitting a new high since 2008, with an intraday increase of more than 25 basis points.
It also led the market to expect the Fed to raise interest rates more aggressively.Barclays economist Jonathan Millar said the Fed may raise rates by 75 basis points in June or July, and from now on, the Fed has good reasons to raise rates by more than the market expected in June.
"The Fed's tightening of monetary policy has limited impact on the domestic bond market. The economic and monetary cycles of China and the United States are not consistent, and China's monetary policy is still in an easing cycle. However, it should be noted that as the impact of the epidemic gradually weakens and the economy gradually recovers, The demand for financing is gradually rising, and the domestic bond market will also face certain adjustment pressure." A Shanghai "fixed income +" fund manager told a Securities Times reporter.
On the domestic front, the National Bureau of Statistics announced on June 10 that the domestic CPI in May rose by 2.1% year-on-year, and is expected to rise by 2.2%. The increase was 2.79 trillion yuan, and the social financing data improved significantly, exceeding market expectations.Treasury bond futures fluctuated within a narrow range on that day, closing slightly across the board, with the 10-year main contract down 0.10% and the 5-year main contract down 0.05%.
Debt base generally pulls back
Trigger some funds to leave the market
Affected by the overall pressure on the bond market, many bond funds have also undergone adjustments, and among them, bond QDII funds that invest overseas have fallen the most.
According to Wind statistics, since the beginning of this year, bond QDII funds have dominated the list of decliners. Six of the ten bond funds with the largest decline are bond QDII funds, and the declines during the year are all over 5%. A QDII fund that invests in overseas high-yield bonds The decline during the year even exceeded 30%, which is comparable to equity funds.
The fund manager of the bond QDII fund believes that this is mainly because of the war, the market's worries about economic stagnation have surged, the interest rate of US Treasury bonds has risen sharply, coupled with the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar, exchange rate factors have also affected the fund's net value. Partial drag.
Domestically, the bond market showed a strong trend in May due to factors such as the slashing of social financing and the substantial weakening of economic data. However, since Shanghai announced the full unblocking at the end of May, the economic recovery has been expected to heat up, and the bond market has experienced a correction as a whole. There has been some decline recently.As of June 10, there were 1,997 pure debt funds in the market, of which 1,444 had negative monthly returns, accounting for more than 70%, with an average decline of about 0.04%, and some products fell by more than 1%.
It is worth noting that the adjustment of the bond market has begun to trigger the withdrawal of some institutional funds.According to the statistics of Securities Times reporters, only last week (June 6 to June 12), 3 bond funds encountered large-scale redemption by institutions, and an announcement was issued to improve the accuracy of the fund's net value.
For example, on June 9, a Shanghai fund company issued an announcement that the Class A shares of one of its pure debt funds were redeemed in large amounts on June 8. In order to ensure that the interests of fund holders do not retain precision due to the decimal point of the net value of the shares Affected by the adverse effects, it was decided to increase the precision of the net value of the Class A shares of the Fund to 8 decimal places.
Market outlook may be weak or volatile
Looking forward to the market outlook, fund companies generally believe that the bond market is currently facing a complex environment of long and short games, and it may show a weak and volatile trend in the short term.
The fixed income team of Xingyin Fund believes that after the domestic bond market experienced a short-term "bull market" in May 2022, the margin of safety for long-term interest rates is not large. The bond market in June may show a volatile and weak trend, and the negative factors will gradually appear.
On the one hand, the domestic epidemic has been effectively controlled, Shanghai has been fully unblocked, and economic recovery is expected to heat up; on the other hand, factors such as the issuance of special government bonds and the MPA (Macro Prudential Supervision) assessment at the end of June may lead to the gradual convergence of funds; but at the same time , Xingyin Fund pointed out that the current pace of fundamental repair is still weak, and the strength of economic recovery still needs to be observed through high-frequency data. In June, it is still necessary to focus on the relaxation of real estate in domestic core cities and the potential landing of special treasury bonds in the second half of the year.
Lion Fund has given a relatively neutral judgment. It believes that, on the one hand, Shanghai officially resumes production and work, and it is expected that the unfavorable situation of the previous economic stall is expected to be contained; however, since the beginning of the year, the foreign trade and employment situation has deteriorated significantly, and real estate and infrastructure investment has resumed. There are many constraints, and residents' consumption is also subject to income fluctuations and repeated epidemics, and the endogenous driving force for economic growth is still insufficient.
To sum up, Lion Fund believes that the recent impact of fundamentals and policy factors on the bond market may tend to be neutral, the room for fluctuations in interest rates is very limited, and the difficulty of band operation is gradually increasing.On the premise of stable financing costs, the moderately leveraged carry strategy will still be better than the absolute high coupon strategy.
As for the investment strategies of different bond types, SPDB-AXA Fund has given investment suggestions from three categories: interest rate bonds, credit bonds and convertible bonds:
In terms of interest rate bonds, due to the resumption of work and production in Beijing, Shanghai and other regions, the domestic economic data is expected to pick up, and the bond market environment is less friendly than the previous period; it is expected that the overall liquidity will remain relatively loose, but in the local debt-intensive state. At the time of payment and the end of the quarter, the volatility of the funding rate may increase marginally.In the short term, the bond market may show a weak and volatile trend. SPDB-AXA Fund recommends adopting a neutral-biased defensive strategy.
In terms of credit bonds, the overall risk-return ratio of the current credit bond yields is relatively low relative to the position of the company's profit cycle. It is recommended to focus on high-liquidity short-duration credit bonds in the near future. For specific bond types, the follow-up can continue to pay attention to the transformation of bank wealth management net worth. progress, and look for allocation opportunities amid fluctuations in the relative spreads of tier-2 capital bonds and perpetual bonds.
In terms of convertible bonds, the stock market performance verification period is under pressure. The core driver of the market recently is the intensive introduction of stimulus policies, and the recovery expectations are traded ahead of time. Yes, don't be too optimistic.Taking into account the market's round-up characteristics and sector location, SPDB-AXA Fund recommends focusing on stable growth and some consumption with low growth rates.
【Editor: Shao Wanyun】
