The first half of the year is coming to an end, and the fund's half-year performance champion competition has entered the countdown.The recent change in market style has led to a sharp pullback in the net value of the leading fund in the first half of the year, and whether it can continue to lead is facing a test.
In the past two months, the net value of 973 active equity funds has rebounded by more than 30%, and the net value of 20 funds has increased by more than 60%.Many new funds established this year have entered the forefront of the performance list.According to industry insiders, the market style has switched from cyclical stocks and value stocks to the growth track since May.Not pessimistic about the mid-term market conditions, and can actively seize the opportunity to increase positions brought about by market fluctuations.
"Wanjiajun" may lock the half-time champion
There are still four trading days before the end of the first half of the market. Judging from the current performance rankings of active equity funds, the suspense of the performance champion is not great.
In order to ensure that the funds on the list have complete semi-annual performance, when sorting out the semi-annual performance of active equity funds, newly established funds this year have been excluded.According to Wind data, as of June 24, the Wanjia macro-time multiple strategy managed by Wanjia Fund Huanghai is the only fund with a return rate of more than 40% this year, with a return rate of 41.18%.
Interestingly, 4 funds starting with "Wanjia" have led the market for active equity funds for many consecutive months this year.As of June 24, in addition to Wanjia's macro timing strategy, Wanjia Xinli and Wanjia Select A managed by Huanghai have both exceeded 30% this year, 36.41% and 31.16% respectively; managed by Zhang Heng Wanjia Yihe’s yield has exceeded 20% this year, at 25.81%.The aforementioned four funds occupy the top four in the half-year performance rankings.
"The fund positions that have performed better this year are mainly focused on energy-related companies such as coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, and agriculture and agrochemical-related companies, mainly benefiting from the surge in global energy and food prices." China Post Venture Fund Manager Wu Shang express.
Judging from the data on heavy holding stocks at the end of the first quarter, the three funds managed by Huanghai have heavy holdings in real estate stocks and coal stocks.For example, the large-scale Wanjia Selected top ten stocks at the end of the first quarter were Shaanxi Coal Industry (601225), Poly Development (600048), Vanke A, Gemdale Group (600383), Shanxi Coal International (600546), Xincheng Holdings (601155), Lu'an Environmental Energy, Huaibei Mining (600985), Jinkong Coal Industry (601001), Shanxi Coking Coal (000983).
Huang Hai told a reporter from China Securities Journal that he prefers defense in fund allocation. Among them, the coal industry shows low valuations and high dividends. Benefiting from the rise in global commodity prices, profits may continue to grow, which is a very good allocation choice.However, after the stock price of the real estate industry has experienced a downward trend for several years, the valuation is at the bottom. In addition, the industry has experienced a large-scale clearing, and the pattern has accelerated to optimize. It is at the bottom of the profit, and the risk release is sufficient. As an important starting point for stabilizing growth, the policy is expected to continue to relax. This brings about a double repair of sector valuation and profitability.
At the same time, as of June 24, the net worth of Lion Innovation Drive C, managed by well-known fund manager Cai Songsong, has dropped by 36.23% this year, temporarily ranking last in the performance list of active equity funds.Specifically, the difference between the performance of active equity funds from the beginning to the end is more than 77 percentage points. Compared with the 71 percentage points in the same period in 2021, the performance difference between the beginning and the end has further widened.
"Since this year, the structural market features are obvious, and the style is rotated more frequently. If the direction is wrong, or the rhythm is wrong, the performance of the fund will be very bad." Zhang Xun, research director and fund manager of TEDA Manulife, told reporters.
Chi Yunfei, a senior fund analyst at the Shanghai Securities Fund Evaluation and Research Center, believes that, unlike last year, the global supply chain has faced greater challenges this year, overseas inflation has become more serious, and the Federal Reserve has accelerated rate hikes.Therefore, the market prefers to switch from a track with high growth, high valuation, and high prosperity to a track with more certainty of profitability, lower valuation, and insensitivity to interest rate changes.Funds that invest in high-growth stocks, due to their high elasticity, also suffer large declines, which in turn increases the poor start-to-tail performance of active equity funds.
Wu Shang also said that funds with poor performance since the beginning of this year have generally invested heavily in new energy, TMT, food and beverage and other consumer and high-end manufacturing industries, mainly due to weak demand and production interruptions. influences.In addition to company performance factors, changes in market style and investor sentiment are also important factors that cause large differences in fund performance.
Frontrunners face the test
It is worth noting that in recent years, several funds managed by a fund manager have frequently taken over the top performers of active equity funds.For example, in 2019, the funds managed by Liu Gesong of GF Fund took the top three annual performances of active equity funds, in 2020, the funds managed by Zhao Yi took the top four, and in 2021, the funds managed by Cui Chenlong took the top two.
"Some champion funds represent the deviation of their positions to some extent, and some fund managers dare to bet on a single sector and a single theme for a period of time." A fund manager of a large-scale public offering in Beijing told reporters.
Whether the funds managed by Huang Hai can maintain such a high performance lead in the second half of the year and replicate the brilliance of the above-mentioned three fund managers is still a question mark.
Wind data shows that in the past ten trading days, the Shenwan coal industry index fell by 11.44%, the largest decline among 31 industry indexes.In this context, due to the heavy holding of coal stocks, the funds managed by Huanghai have withdrawn to varying degrees. Respectively up to 7.05%, 6.61%, 6.49%.
At the same time, Wind data shows that as of June 24, since the market low on April 27, there are 973 active equity funds (A and C shares are calculated separately) with a rate of return exceeding 30%, and 437 funds with a rate of return Over 40%, 144 funds have yields over 50%, and 20 funds have yields over 60%."This round of rebound is mainly the recovery after the previous oversold. In April, the market fell sharply under the combined influence of multiple factors, among which supply chain shocks and investor sentiment fluctuations were important reasons. With the gradual recovery of the supply chain, the market rebounded It also followed." Wu Shang said.
If the newly established funds in 2022 are included in the performance list of active equity funds, Wanjia Select A will move from 3rd to 8th, and Wanjia Yihe will move from 4th to 14th.
Specifically, Shanghai Yin New Energy Industry Selection, established on April 20, TEDA Manulife Prosperity Smart Selection, established on March 29, held for 18 months, and Yinhua Lexiang C, established on May 16, accounted for 33.92% respectively. , 31.84%, and 31.43% yields surpassed Wanjia Select A.
In this wave of rebound, funds that hold heavy positions in new energy, electronics and other manufacturing industries acted as the vanguard of the rebound."At present, the market style may have switched to the growth track since May." Zhang Xun said.
Wind data shows that as of June 24, since April 27, the net worth of Xin'ao New Energy Selected by Li Bo and Zeng Guofu has increased by 66.44%, and the net worth of Jinxin's transformation and innovation managed by Yang Chao has increased by 65.33%. ; In addition, the net value of many funds such as Penghua Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Emerging Growth, China Securities (601066) Low-Carbon Growth, Soochow New Economy, Huitian Fuyingxin Flexible Allocation rose more than 60%.
In response to the current new energy market, Cui Chenlong, the fund manager of Qianhai Open Source Fund, recently expressed his opinion that the recent rebound in the new energy sector is a repair to the previous correction and a reflection of the positive fundamentals.
Hony Yuanfang Fund believes that the recent outstanding performance of the automotive sector lies in the acceleration of the resumption of work and production in the industry and the frequent introduction of policies to promote automobile consumption.After the overall adjustment of the market, the valuation of this sector has returned to a reasonable range, and the willingness to allocate funds has increased significantly.
Mid-term market is not pessimistic
"The periodic performance of the fund's performance has certain significance, but it is of little significance. We encourage long-term investment, and we should appropriately lengthen the assessment period and observation perspective, which is more conducive to investors' investment; downplaying short-term rankings, it is recommended that investors pay more attention to the middle. Long-term benefits." Zhang Xun told reporters.
Over a long period of time, the overall performance of active equity funds is still outstanding.The data shows that as of June 24, the net value growth rate of 732 funds (A and C shares are calculated separately) in the past three years has exceeded 100%, and the net value growth rate of 93 funds has exceeded 200%.Among them, the new energy theme of ABC Huili rose by more than 400%.Judging from the performance in the past five years, even after many market corrections, there are still 653 funds with a net value growth rate of over 100%, and 76 funds with a net value growth rate of over 200%.
Since the market low on April 27, this wave of rebound has lasted for almost two months, and many investors have questioned whether the rebound can be sustained.
Wei Fengchun, chief economist of Chuangjin Hexin Fund, said that since April, the main driving force for the rebound of A-shares is that the policy bottom for stabilizing growth has appeared, and the balance between epidemic prevention and growth has been sought.Meanwhile, expectations for U.S. stocks to shift from inflation trading to recession trading have further boosted the price-performance ratio of Chinese assets.Therefore, it can be judged that the systemic risks that restricted the market before have begun to disappear, and the market rebound will continue.
CCB Fund believes that with the moderate relaxation of real estate policies, increased infrastructure construction, and consumer subsidies, my country's economy is expected to usher in recovery, and the valuation of most industries is at a historically low level, and market opportunities are still relatively abundant.He is not pessimistic about the mid-term market conditions. Although the pace of subsequent rebounds is expected to slow down, investors can still seize the layout opportunities brought about by market fluctuations.
Specific to actual investment, which areas will have opportunities in the next stage?CCB Fund said that, first of all, in the short term, it can seize the trading opportunities brought by the market rebound and spread.As the hot spots in the market spread, it is recommended to pay attention to new infrastructure tracks such as computers, media, and communications. At the same time, the consumer sector led by durable consumer goods, as well as industrial product opportunities driven by infrastructure real estate chains such as coking coal and thermal coal are also worthy of attention.Secondly, we are optimistic about high-prosperity growth sectors with relatively independent medium-term layout logic, including military industry, new energy infrastructure, and new energy vehicles.Finally, pay attention to the opportunities in the consumer sector that appear during the switch from PPI logic to CPI logic, including food and beverage, agriculture, etc.
"With half a year as the dimension, we are optimistic about the following directions: first, incremental economy, including new energy, military industry, and intelligent manufacturing; second, inflation themes, including agriculture, mass consumer goods, and liquor; third, stable growth; fourth, automobiles Industrial chain." Zhang Xun said.
Gu Yu, fund manager of Nord Fund, said that the discretionary consumer industry affected by the epidemic will reverse earlier because it is more directly affected by the epidemic and will benefit more from the mitigation of the epidemic.These industries include restaurants, hotels, tourism, etc.
