Shanghai Securities News China Securities News (Wang Yanlin reporter Sun Yue) At the close of trading today, the three major A-share indexes turned red strongly, of which the Shanghai index returned to 3,400 after more than three months.How long can this rally last?How will the A-share market be deployed in the second half of the year?On June 28, Essence Securities 2022 mid-term investment strategy meeting was held online. Essence Securities Chief Economist Gao Shanwen and Chief Strategy Analyst Lin Rongxiong published the latest research and judgment on the above-mentioned topics of market concern.
Gao Shanwen believes that the current market is still in a normal rebound process driven by valuation repair and improvement in fundamental factors, and it will continue for a long time. The current A-share valuation level is not historically high.
Lin Rongxiong said that the A-share market is "gradually getting out of the thinking of a big downturn", and it is expected that the center will move up in the next shock in the second half of the year, and the "prosperity investment" strategy is expected to return.
The valuation level of A shares is not high, and the rebound will continue for a long time
Gao Shanwen said that since the beginning of this year until the end of April, due to a series of internal and external factors, the A-share market has experienced an unexpected decline.From the perspective of the beginning of the year, most institutions and investors could not fully anticipate such a decline.
He believes that the A-share market has fallen to an extreme level in April.The so-called "extreme level" can be understood from three aspects: First, from the perspective of a wide range of valuation indicators, the valuation of the A-share market has fallen to an extremely low level in history.Second, in the period from the end of April to May 10, the A-share market has been completely passive for a series of bad news when looking at the A-share market from a transaction level.The market has completely stopped responding to some obvious negative factors that exceeded expectations.Third, the most striking feature of this decline is the absence of a broad and obvious tightening at the liquidity level.
Gao Shanwen believes that since May, judging from many microscopic indicators, economic fundamentals are improving, banks are more active in lending, the liquidity environment has been further improved, the government's policy of stabilizing growth has continued to exert force, and the negative factors have not deteriorated.Based on this, the market rebounded significantly.
"From the current point of view, we tend to believe that the market is still in a relatively normal process of recovery driven by valuation repairs and improving fundamentals. From the trading side, fundamentals, etc. Judging from the situation, such a rebound will continue for a long time," he said.
Regarding China's macroeconomic outlook, Gao Shanwen said that in order to achieve long-term economic growth in the future, China needs to continue to focus on economic construction and constantly make up for the shortcomings of the system.
"The stable development of the macro economy is the cornerstone of the stock market. The long-term prosperity of the stock market depends on the continuous production of new great companies in the economic system. These new great companies, its growth is shared with investors through listing. These A great company can continue to grow and create value in the long run." Gao Shanwen said.
The A-share market is "gradually getting out of the crash thinking"
Lin Rongxiong said that the A-share market is currently "gradually getting out of the big drop thinking" and turning to the shock market thinking after the big drop.If you do a review of a volatile market after a big drop, you can find that among the three factors of fundamentals, liquidity, and risk appetite, when at least one factor continues to improve with certainty, the market has a certain possibility to get out of the volatile market; When the two factors improve month-on-month, there is a greater probability of entering a volatile market.
He believes that the current market is in the stage of liquidity logic support, corresponding to the configuration level, the growth sector style is dominant.If you want to achieve the upward movement of the shock center, you still need strong support from the macro fundamentals.In the follow-up, with the gradual realization of the effect of the stabilizing growth policy, it is expected to shift from the logic of liquidity to the logic of fundamental recovery expectations, so as to realize the upward movement of the market shock center.
Lin Rongxiong said that the entire market has moved towards industrial logic this year, and several major industrial trends proposed in the “14th Five-Year Plan”—green, high-end, and digital intelligence (intelligence, integration and digital) have become a major starting point for structural configuration. .From the general direction, it is recommended that investors focus on high-prosperity growth.
Specifically, Lin Rongxiong predicts that in 2022, the booming trend of the original high-growth track stocks such as wind and photovoltaics will continue, but it will shift from most industrial chains to a few links in a few industrial chains.For high-growth track stocks such as the original wind and photovoltaics, the priority in the second half of the year is photovoltaics, defense and military industries > new energy vehicles > wind power and semiconductors.Among them, the lithium battery industry is expected to be more prosperous in the upstream and downstream than the midstream, and the growth rate of photovoltaic inverters and auxiliary links is expected to surpass other links.
