[Among the 20 Renqiao asset products according to data, as of July 5, the best-performing Renqiao Zeyuan Phase 12 B No. 12 yielded only 2.33% this year. get negative returns.]
Since the stock market bottomed out, the valuation of sectors represented by new energy has risen rapidly, causing many funds to "recover blood".
Looking at it now, the end of April is indeed at a low point in the market, which is a more suitable time to buy.However, Wang Fuwei, the fund manager of Xinyuan Fund, said in a roadshow on June 28 that under the circumstances of such a huge market decline at that time, the psychology of whether to increase positions was actually "false".
"In fact, many people are stepping into this wave of rising, and the most critical problem is that it has risen too fast. On April 27, the power equipment and new energy index rose by more than 8%, and basically the stocks in the sector are at the daily limit; If the funds did not enter a week ago or a month ago, the entire sector would have moved upward by 15% at that time, and the increase was already very large; if investors hesitated and did not buy by the end of June, the entire sector would have increased by a small amount. 50%, the opportunity is fleeting. Because it rose too fast, it caused a very serious short-run." Wang Fuwei said.
The first financial reporter noticed that many well-known institutions have appeared in this wave, such as the tens of billions of private equity Renqiao assets. The rebound is clearly behind."
From the perspective of the performance of the net worth of private equity products, the star private equity institutions that have stepped out of the sky are far more than Renqiao Assets.
Tens of billions of private equity, some people step in the air, some people increase their positions
On July 4th, Xia Junjie, founder and investment director of Renqiao Assets, posted that due to structural differences, Renqiao's products are obviously lagging behind in this round of rebound.
He said: "The investment style of Renqiao has always been conservative. Conservation has conservative returns, and conservative has conservative costs. The biggest problem with conservative is lack of imagination. In investment, the result of lack of imagination is a lot of money. We are destined. Can't make it. For example, several new car-making forces, or Meituan. Frankly speaking, we are not sure about the long-term reasonable value of such companies, especially large-cap companies, and investment cannot earn you' do not believe ' part of the proceeds."
After the "empty" of new energy, the net value of the company's products has been declining.According to the data of private placement Pai Pai.com, among the 20 Renqiao asset products according to the data, as of July 5, the yield of Renqiao Zeyuan Phase 12 B, which has performed best this year, was only 2.33%. In addition, there are Eight products have recorded negative returns this year.
Xia Junjie is more willing to believe that this round of rebound is the end of the previous cycle.He believes that there have been some bad signals in the photovoltaic and semiconductor industries recently.For example, PV downstream module companies have begun to show signs of shutdown and production reduction because they cannot bear the pressure of upstream price increases; TSMC lowered its capacity utilization rate in the third quarter for the first time, and the price of MCU chips has also dropped significantly.
However, the market does not seem to care about these negative "disturbances", with institutions holding firm positions and stock prices remaining strong.The reason is that, on the one hand, the risk appetite of the market is still increasing; on the other hand, everyone has become less and less sensitive to negative information, which is like the story of "the wolf is coming".
Xia Junjie said: "In the past few years, new energy and semiconductors have been highly prosperous industries. The production capacity and demand have been in a race. The wolf has come a few times and it has not been fulfilled. Slowly people will become numb. This time the wolf will come or not. We're not sure either, but the mistake of buying at the apex of a cycle is often irreversible, and we're reluctant to take the possibility and avoid it as we always do."
According to the data provided by the channel to the first financial reporter, the rebound of many subjective long private equity fund products lags far behind the market average.
"Many of these products have stepped out of new energy, resulting in a less than expected rebound." The above-mentioned channel person said to the First Financial Reporter.
Some people step in the air, some people catch up with opportunities.
Liang Hui, general manager of another tens of billions of private equity capital, told the first financial reporter that when the market sentiment was relatively pessimistic in early April, he judged that the market valuation level had reached a relatively low position, and the market influencing factors had undergone marginal changes. Therefore, we were strategically long in early April, and gradually increased our positions in the middle and late April.
He said: "After the market sentiment was repaired, our positions increased, and the recent rebound in the net value of products was also relatively obvious. From the review point of view, under the strong rebound of the market since May, we mainly increased our positions in three directions. All are doing well, i.e. photovoltaics, electric vehicles, semiconductor equipment.”
Be alert to the callback of the new energy sector
Wang Fuwei said that after a lot of funds ran out in June, there began to be a concentrated rush to raise funds, and the amount was large and concentrated.
From the perspective of private placement positions, as of the end of June, the average position of private equity funds with a subjective long-term strategy was 72%, an increase of 3 percentage points from the end of May.It is worth noting that even though the average position of domestic subjective long private equity funds in June rose a lot, there is still a significant gap with the annual level in 2021.Relevant data shows that in 2021, the average position of subjective long-term private equity funds will remain around 80% for a long time.
Among them, the new energy sectors are the main directions of capital increase.For example, in the early trading of June 28, the new energy vehicle track received the main capital increase of more than 4.8 billion yuan, of which Changan Automobile received the main increase of more than 1.4 billion yuan, Hengdian East Magnetic, Zhongke Sanhuan, and Tianqi Lithium respectively won the main force. Increased positions of 760 million yuan, 658 million yuan, and 563 million yuan.Many stocks such as Dofluoroduo, Tianci Materials, Huayou Cobalt, Shanshan Co., Ltd. were the main force to increase their positions by more than 100 million yuan.
In the morning of June 22, the main funds rushed to raise 3.403 billion yuan for the photovoltaic sector, 2.383 billion yuan for the energy storage sector, 1.701 billion yuan for the lithium battery sector, and 1.207 billion yuan for the wind power sector.Among them, the leader in the photovoltaic sector, Sungrow, received a major increase of 844 million yuan.
Zhang Yuan, a strategic researcher at Industrial Securities, said that one of the features of this round of rising market is that the market is moving faster than market expectations, resulting in too much short-term funds, while new energy has a high degree of consensus in the current market, a high degree of prosperity, and can accommodate large funds to enter. The sector has naturally become the first choice for capital entry.
However, after experiencing a sharp rise in a short period of time, are the new energy sectors still suitable for chasing highs?
Shi Cheng, manager of SDIC UBS Advanced Manufacturing Fund, said in a recent interview with the media that he does not recommend investors to chase after the sharp rise in new energy, because the volatility is relatively large, and chasing may suffer certain losses.
He believes that the biggest risk of new energy is the risk of stepping into the air.Because new energy is often adjusted, but every major adjustment is often a good buying opportunity.After each sharp drop, he suggested that investors could deploy some of these products.
As early as July 13, 2021, after the new energy sector experienced the surge at that time, Zheng Zehong, manager of China Energy Innovation Equity Fund, publicly stated that he was "afraid that investors would invest a lot of money".
Because the new energy sector has strong growth but also huge fluctuations, it is possible to encounter a 20% to 30% correction in the short term, especially at the moment when the market continues to rise and the market is hot, the probability of such a short-term correction is even greater.
"If investors come to take advantage of the prosperity and purchase a large amount of Huaxia Energy Innovation at one time, but encounter a short-term correction, they can't bear the volatility and stop losses, and they do not enjoy the benefits, but bear losses. This is the last thing I want. I saw it." Zheng Zehong said.
