Under the background of liquidity crunch, the real estate industry will be sluggish as a whole in 2021, and the low temperature will continue until 2022.
According to the data of the "2022 Real Estate Listed Company Evaluation and Research Report" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") released on May 26, the growth rate of the real estate industry will continue to slow down in 2021, and the average growth rate of total assets will be negative for the first time in the past five years. In terms of growth ability, the net profit declined to a large extent, and the average net profit fell by 21.69% year-on-year.The report was conducted by Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute. It has been carried out for 15 consecutive years under the guidance of China Real Estate Association. It is an important professional evaluation and research result on the comprehensive strength of listed real estate companies in China.
It is worth noting that more than 70% of listed real estate companies will not see profit growth in 2021.
In addition, with the transformation of the development model of the real estate industry, returning to the essence of product living, focusing on diversified business development, and asking for dividends from management are gradually becoming the driving force and breakthrough point for real estate companies in difficult times.
Increase revenue but not profit
The performance of the net profit margin of real estate companies in 2021 is not very good.
Data shows that in 2021, the real estate development business income, operating income and net asset scale of listed real estate companies will increase, but the scale of net profit will decline.
Specifically, the average revenue of real estate development business increased by 7.21% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 5.37 percentage points compared with 2020; the average operating income increased by 10.81% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 4.59 percentage points compared with 2020; while the average net profit decreased by 21.69% year-on-year The average value of net assets increased by 8.38% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 5.38 percentage points compared with 2020.
It is worth noting that the average growth rate of net profit of listed real estate companies has been declining since 2017, and there will be negative growth in 2021.
In this regard, Ding Zuyu, executive director of Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute and CEO of E-House Enterprise Group, said that the net profit dropped by 20%, mainly because the increase in revenue did not increase production or the increase in revenue did not increase profit.
According to Ding Zuyu, the proportion of listed real estate companies that increased revenue and profit decreased the most, down 11 percentage points to only 25%.And 4% of the real estate companies are increasing profits without increasing income, a decrease of 3 percentage points.In addition, more than 70% of real estate companies have not seen profit growth.
"Without making money in the real estate industry, everyone will withdraw from the industry, some passively, and some actively. This will lead to a decline in the scale of the real estate industry." Ding Zuyu told a reporter from China Times on May 27 about most of the The impact of the lack of growth in the profits of real estate companies said.
The "Research Report on China's Top 100 Real Estate Enterprises" recently released by the China Index Research Institute also pointed out that the net profit growth rate of listed real estate companies has hit a new low, mainly due to factors such as the new crown epidemic, strict real estate control policies, and high costs of various types. influences.
In 2021, the total dividends of listed real estate companies will fall by 75%
Affected by the cooling market and increasing costs, the profitability of listed real estate companies in 2021 will be narrowed, and various indicators will decline.
According to the "Report" data, in 2021, the average operating profit of listed real estate companies will be 4.281 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.41%; the average net profit will be 2.519 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.70%; the average return on equity is 3.04%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.74% percentage point; the average rate of return on total assets was 2.65%, down 0.97 percentage points from the previous year.
In terms of absolute profitability, the net profit of 11 listed housing companies exceeded 10 billion, accounting for 6.96%; 25 listed housing companies suffered losses, accounting for 15.82%.From the perspective of relative profitability, only 3 listed real estate companies have a return on total assets higher than 10%, accounting for 1.90%.
Compared with 2020, the proportion of listed real estate companies with a return on total assets exceeding 10% in 2021 will decrease, the proportion of listed real estate companies between 5% and 10% will increase slightly, and the proportion of listed real estate companies between 0 and 5% will increase. The ratio decreased slightly, and the proportion of listed real estate companies with less than 0 increased significantly for two consecutive years.In general, the return rate of listed real estate companies is mainly concentrated in 0-5%, and the overall profitability has declined compared with 2020.
According to Ding Zuyu, the average operating profit of listed real estate companies was 8.281 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.41%.Last year's market environment still had a certain impact on the company's profitability. Only 10% of the listed real estate companies were profitable companies, and more than half of the listed real estate companies were companies with weak profits.
It is worth noting that, according to Ding Zuyu's analysis, the earnings of last year's financial reports are generally lagging behind, and they are all generated by sales in previous years.It is foreseeable that in the next few years, relatively speaking, the pressure on this indicator may be even greater.
In addition, the sluggish performance of the real estate industry also affected the capital market, and the real estate index fluctuated downward.
According to the "Report" data, based on the closing price on December 31, 2021, the Shenwan real estate industry index fell by 12.94% throughout the year, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 7.74 percentage points, ranking among Shenwan's 28 first-tier industries. back.The Hang Seng Mainland China Real Estate Index fell by 30.61% for the year, underperforming the Hang Seng China 100 Index by 9.48 percentage points.
On the whole, the trend of the real estate sectors in the two places was significantly weaker than that of the broader market.
In addition, dividends have also declined significantly.According to Ding Zuyu, the total dividends of listed real estate companies in 2021 will be 44.9 billion, down 75%.More than 60% of the real estate companies' stock prices have fallen. Now there are only 7 real estate companies with a market value of 100 billion yuan. Vanke, China Resources, Poly, Longfor, Zhonghai, Country Garden, and China Merchants, and these 7 real estate companies are also compared with the previous market value. Certain changes have taken place.
Greater emphasis on cash management
In 2021, the real estate industry will control liabilities as a whole, and real estate companies will pay more attention to cash management.On the whole, the leverage control of real estate enterprises has achieved initial results.
According to the data of the "Report", in terms of long-term solvency, the average asset-liability ratio of listed real estate companies in 2021 after excluding pre-payments will be 61.62%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.09%; the average net debt ratio is 87.68%, a decrease of 7.39% from the previous year. percent.
In terms of short-term solvency, in 2021, the average current ratio of listed real estate companies will be 1.66, and the average quick ratio will be 0.65. Compared with the previous year, the two will remain basically stable.The median cash short-term debt ratio was 1.33, an increase of 2.31 percentage points over the previous year, and the short-term debt solvency was improved.
In addition, the "Report" also pointed out that with the transformation of the industry development model, returning to the essence of product living, focusing on diversified business development, and asking for dividends from management have gradually become the strength and breakthrough point for real estate companies in difficult times.
In order to expand income, find a variety of profit channels, diversified business development, and strive to find the second growth curve may become an important choice for many real estate companies in 2022.Among them, the property management sector with stable cash flow, low concentration and large growth space is the preferred choice of most real estate companies.
