Guangzhou's first- and second-hand housing prices rose in April, but the transaction volume fell sharply year-on-year.
On May 18, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in April, the sales price of new commercial housing in Guangzhou increased by 0.1% month-on-month, and the sales price of second-hand housing increased by 0.5% month-on-month.According to Keerui's monitoring, the average transaction price of second-hand housing in Guangzhou in April was 30,400 yuan per square meter, up 2.06% from the previous month.
It is worth noting that according to the data of CRERUI, the average transaction price of luxury houses in Guangzhou of tens of millions has hit a new high in the past five years, reaching 72,000 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%.
However, while the price has risen, the transaction volume has not performed well. According to data from the Central Plains, in April 2022, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in Guangzhou (self-service online signing + intermediary online signing) was 7,274, down 13.5% month-on-month and 54.6% year-on-year. .
Guangzhou's first and second-hand housing prices rise
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the price of first-hand residential properties in Guangzhou fell by 0.1% month-on-month in March, but rebounded in April, up 0.1% month-on-month.Second-hand home prices rose 0.5% month-on-month in April.
In this regard, Guangzhou Central Plains Research and Development Department analyzed that at present, all parts of the country are ushering in a "rescue market" boom, the overall regulation tone tends to be loose, the credit environment is even more warm, and Guangzhou buyers' confidence in buying houses is gradually rebuilding, and there are some expectations for the market outlook. The improvement and the gradual recovery of the market transaction heat have prompted Guangzhou's second-hand housing prices to keep rising for 3 consecutive months, while the new housing prices have stopped falling and rebounded.
However, in terms of transaction volume, according to data from Zhongyuan, in April 2022, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in Guangzhou (self-service online signing + intermediary online signing) was 7,274, a month-on-month decrease of 13.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 54.6%.
Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Planning Institute, analyzed in an interview with a reporter from China Times on May 23 that the phenomenon of price rises and falls in Guangzhou is mainly because the housing price index is a structural factor and a homogeneous comparable.Guangzhou may be that the increase in transaction volume in the urban area drives the overall price increase, while the transaction volume in the outer suburbs declines, so the actual transaction volume declines.
"There may be some hot-selling areas, and the price has risen significantly. Although the transaction volume is small, the pulling effect on the price is still relatively large." Li Yujia said.
According to data from Guangzhou Zhongyuan Research Department, the market in Panyu District, Guangzhou was the most active in supply and demand in April, and the transaction has ranked first in the list for two consecutive months. A total of 1,063 units were sold in April, with an average price of about 25,000 per square meter.
The Tianhe District, with an average price of 55,000 per square meter, occupied the top spot in the Guangzhou area, with a total of 961 transactions in April.According to the monitoring of the Central Plains Research Department, the demand for the Pearl River New Town sector was particularly active in April.Among them, the active real estate transactions are Zhonghai Jinghui Huating, Zhonghai Huachengwan, etc. The average transaction price is about 152,000/sq.m and 165,000/sq.m. respectively.
In addition, industry insiders familiar with the Guangzhou property market also told the "China Times" reporter on May 23 that the decrease in second-hand housing transactions was also affected by the epidemic in Guangzhou in April and the Qingming off-season.If the relevant factors are excluded, the transactions in Guangzhou's second-hand market are still relatively active.
Judging from the cumulative monthly transaction volume this year, Kerui data shows that from January to April 2022, a total of 26,961 sets of second-hand housing listings in Guangzhou were signed online. in the same period in 2021.
It is worth noting that in the first four months of this year, a total of 775 luxury houses with a total price of more than 10 million were signed online in Guangzhou, a decrease of 14% compared with the same period last year, but the market share rose to 3.4%, an increase of 1.2% year-on-year.
In terms of price, the average transaction price of tens of millions of luxury houses in Guangzhou hit a new high in the past five years, reaching 72,000 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%.
In this regard, Li Yujia analyzed that the increase in the proportion of tens of millions of luxury houses in Guangzhou does not mean that the transaction volume of luxury houses has increased.In fact, the transaction volume of luxury houses has declined, but due to the decline in the overall sales volume of the Guangzhou real estate market, the proportion of sales of luxury houses has increased, which is a passive increase.
"High-income people belong to people with relatively deep assets and income accumulation. They have been less affected by the epidemic in the past two years, and they have assets and real estate in their hands. Their demand for house replacement or asset allocation will be released first, which leads to The proportion of luxury houses has increased." Li Yujia said.
Market confidence is repairing
Recently, Guangzhou's new house price limit policy has been loosened.
As early as February this year, news of the loosening of the price limit for new houses was reported in Guangzhou.However, on February 10, the relevant person in charge of the Guangzhou Housing and Urban-rural Development Bureau responded to relevant rumors: Guangzhou has always implemented strict housing price guidance, and implemented dynamic price guidance for real estate. The current price limit policy has not been relaxed.Guangzhou will, as always, support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and promote a virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry.
According to Huang Wen (pseudonym), a real estate agent in Guangzhou Tianhe, on May 23, he told a reporter from China Times that there are signs of relaxation of the price limit for new houses in Guangzhou. But now the new house has a unit price of over 140,000 yuan.Guangzhou Haizhu real estate agent Chen Ping (pseudonym) also told a reporter from China Times on May 23 that the price limit for new houses in Guangzhou has been slightly relaxed, mainly because the market is relatively weak and developers are not very happy.
In addition, in the first round of land auctions in Guangzhou this year, conditions such as "limited house prices and sales" were cancelled, which prompted the project's profit expectations to increase, thus attracting many real estate companies to participate.Judging from the results of the land auctions, the enthusiasm of real estate companies to acquire land is higher than before. Except for one land plot that was passed in, the remaining 17 land parcels were sold successfully, with a total amount of 34.14 billion yuan.This also shows from the side that the expectations of real estate companies on the property market have changed, and confidence has gradually recovered.
In this regard, Li Yujia analyzed, "This time the land supply, the land price is relatively low, the competition for construction is cancelled, and the developers are fully benefited. In addition, the state and local governments have comprehensively bailed out the industry and the market. It is expected that the market will rebound in the second half of the year. The batch of land will enter the market at the end of the year, and it is estimated that it will achieve good sales performance.”
It is worth mentioning that in the first round of land auctions in Guangzhou this year, premium land plots appeared again, which also showed a signal that the Guangzhou market was picking up.
in second-hand housing prices.Guangzhou Huadu real estate agent Zheng Jie (pseudonym) revealed to a reporter from China Times on May 23 that in the current second-hand housing transactions in Guangzhou, banks are lending at the actual transaction price, not at the reference price.
Li Yujia believes that no bank or financial supervision department in Guangzhou has officially issued a document saying that loans should be made according to the reference price.When the reference price was introduced last year, some banks implemented it, but on the whole, this is not mandatory, so now the second-hand housing in Guangzhou is loaned at the actual transaction price, and there is no problem with this.
In addition, Li Yujia also added, "As all parties are bailing out the real estate market, banks are less concerned about real estate risks, so banks are willing to issue more loans. Once mortgage loans for housing are issued, the interest rate will drop, and the future will be affected. The recovery in the housing market is a huge help.”
According to the reporter of "China Times" from some banks and intermediaries in Guangzhou, the current Guangzhou first-home loan interest rate generally rises by 60-80 basis points on the basis of LPR, and the second-home loan generally rises by 80-100 basis points.Some intermediaries said that the interest rate for the first home loan of a foreign bank in Guangzhou can be lower, but it depends on the qualifications of the customer.
Regarding the outlook for Guangzhou's market outlook, Li Yujia believes that with the easing of the epidemic and the introduction of various relief policies, especially the decline in interest rates, Guangzhou's property market will rebound significantly in May, and the rebound in the second half of the year will be more obvious. But the premise is that the epidemic does not recur and various relief policies are implemented as soon as possible.
