From May 22nd to 24th, Jinan Housing and Urban-rural Development Bureau and Jinan Housing Provident Fund Center issued 4 notices in a row, from reducing the scope of purchase restrictions, shortening the time of sales restrictions, increasing the loan amount of the provident fund for the first home, increasing the number of housing units purchased by elderly and multi-child families, reducing Social security and personal tax thresholds for non-local families to purchase houses, lowering the down payment ratio, and adjusting the standards for the identification of first homes support reasonable housing needs.
Coincidentally, from April 26th to May 10th, Shenyang issued 6 notices in succession, reducing the number of years for housing transfer VAT exemption, non-local people do not need to pay social security or personal tax to buy a house, support the needs of elderly care housing, and reduce the down payment ratio for a second home. and other aspects to optimize policy regulation.
Compared with most other cities, Jinan and Shenyang have higher frequency of regulation, which highlights the urgency of policy regulation.This also reflects the common characteristics of the recent property market New Deals with wide coverage and strong pertinence.Under the policy keynote of "housing, not speculating" and supporting reasonable housing demand, local governments have issued demand-side support policies based on city-specific policies.
As of May 26, according to incomplete statistics from the Zhuge Housing Search Data Research Center, this year, the frequency of support policy regulation has exceeded 210 times, covering more than 120 cities, and the frequency of regulation has reached 93 times in May.
Among the cities that have introduced the new property market policies, the provincial capitals are often the most advantageous in terms of population, industry and economic development in the province, and the demand for housing is relatively strong.Sorting out the regulatory content of provincial capital cities and the regulatory effects of representative provincial capitals will help deepen the understanding of this round of regulation and provide a reference for possible subsequent policy optimization.
21st Century Business Herald reporters found incomplete statistics that since March, at least 18 provincial capital cities have launched property market support policies, including Zhengzhou, Nanchang, Harbin, Fuzhou, Lanzhou, Kunming, Yinchuan, Guiyang, Shenyang, Nanning, Changchun, Changsha, Haikou, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Wuhan, Taiyuan, Jinan, etc.
What are the main contents of the new property market policies in the capital cities?What is the effect of policy regulation on key cities?Is there any possibility of additional code in the follow-up policy?
Several provincial capitals ease purchase and sales restrictions
Before March 1, the demand-side support policies in various places were mainly based on housing purchase subsidies, lowering the down payment ratio, lowering the mortgage interest rate, and increasing the provident fund loan amount, etc. The released cities were mainly third- and fourth-tier cities with worse market fundamentals.
On March 1, Zhengzhou issued 18 new policies for the property market, covering multiple directions such as supporting reasonable housing demand, improving housing market supply, and increasing credit financing support. Among them, elderly families can purchase one more set of housing, and the first set of housing recognition standards are from "recognized housing". To a certain extent, it has broken through the original policy framework of purchase restrictions and loan restrictions, and the industry believes that it has a wind vane significance.
"Similar policies are also inspiring to other cities across the country. Based on the increase in credit liquidity and the reduction in capital costs, the policy for second housing will be more relaxed in the future." As soon as the Zhengzhou New Deal was introduced, Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of the E-House Research Institute, commented.
After the release of the Zhengzhou New Deal, more and more provincial capital cities joined the list of demand-side policy optimization, and the policy content was further extended and expanded.
"Recognizing housing and not recognizing loans" has become an important way for many provincial capital cities to support the demand for improved housing.Seven cities including Zhengzhou, Lanzhou, Yinchuan, Guiyang, Changchun, Taiyuan and Jinan have corresponding policies.
Among them, Changchun has more detailed regulations on this. For families who own a house and pay off the purchase loan, not only the bank will implement the loan interest rate for the first home, but the provident fund management center will also apply the loan interest rate for the second application of the housing provident fund personal housing loan. The first provident fund loan interest rate for the same period.
Supporting elderly families or families with multiple children to purchase one more suite has also become a new trend in recent provincial capital city regulation.After Zhengzhou, Lanzhou, Shenyang, Hangzhou, Wuhan, Jinan and other 5 cities have similar policies.Among them, Jinan stipulates that parents who rely on the family for their retirement to buy a new suite must meet the conditions for parents to obtain a residence permit for more than 6 months, and curb the demand for investment and real estate speculation.
In addition to allowing parents to seek refuge with their children, families with two and three children can purchase a new suite. Wuhan also clarifies that families with Wuhan household registration whose children come to Wuhan to seek refuge with their parents can purchase a new suite. Currently, this policy is rare in other cities.
Industry insiders said that supporting the housing needs of elderly care and nursing can not only meet the needs of the corresponding groups to improve housing, but also expand the real purchasing power of the market.However, from a practical point of view, due to the relatively small proportion of the groups involved, the impact on the overall urban market is limited.
Restrictions on purchases and sales are powerful regulatory policies and core means of tightening real estate regulation. Recently, restrictions on purchases and sales in many provincial capital cities have loosened to varying degrees.
In comparison, there are more provincial capital cities that adjust purchase restrictions. In addition to the above-mentioned addition of one set of purchase qualifications for the elderly and families with multiple children, Fuzhou, Yinchuan, Shenyang, Changsha, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Wuhan, Jinan, Taiyuan, etc. The nine provincial capitals have adjusted their purchase restriction policies to varying degrees.
For example, Fuzhou stipulates that non-Wucheng households can buy houses in Wucheng without providing social security or personal tax certificate; Chengdu's suburban counties are no longer included in the total number of households when purchasing a house in the central city; Hangzhou has purchased second-hand houses within 5 years and has not settled down. The social security payment period is required, and the non-local household registration social security or individual tax requirements are shortened to 12 months; Changsha stipulates that it is used as a family stock room for rental housing and is not included in the total number of family housing units.
Relatively speaking, Shenyang, Yinchuan and Taiyuan are more aggressive in adjusting purchase restrictions. Shenyang clarifies that households from other places do not need social security or personal tax requirements to purchase houses in Shenyang; Yinchuan proposes that the number of house purchases and the main body of house purchases are not subject to household registration restrictions; Taiyuan further relaxes new residents, youth Restrictions on the purchase of the first home, and the purchase of the first home does not need to provide relevant certificates.
Harbin, Yinchuan and Jinan have adjusted their sales restrictions.Harbin lifted the sales restriction policy. Yinchuan proposed that the transfer period of commercial housing sales contracts signed in the city should not be limited, and Jinan shortened the sales restriction period from two years for real estate licenses to two years for online signing.
In an interview with a 21st Century Business Herald reporter, the regional operation manager of a brand real estate company said that for families in need, the biggest cost of buying a house comes from the down payment ratio and loan pressure, so reducing the down payment ratio is a strong positive for just need.
Reducing the down payment ratio or increasing the loan amount, especially the provident fund loan amount, has also become the choice of more and more provincial capital cities.11 cities including Nanchang, Lanzhou, Kunming, Yinchuan, Guiyang, Shenyang, Nanning, Changchun, Haikou, Taiyuan and Jinan have introduced relevant policies.Among them, Lanzhou, Yinchuan, Guiyang, Changchun, Taiyuan, these five cities, the down payment ratio for the first home can be as low as 20%.
In addition, various localities have also made individual policy adjustments for the local market. For example, Shenyang and Hangzhou adjusted the period of VAT exemption for housing transactions from 5 years to 2 years, Changchun continued to provide housing purchase subsidies to talents and urban farmers, and Haikou reduced housing purchases for talents. The social security or individual tax thresholds, Hangzhou three-child families participating in the new house lottery refer to the "houseless families" priority lottery and so on.
Market performance diverged after the policy was released
From this year's government work report proposing to support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of home buyers, to the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee at the end of April, it was clear that local governments should be supported to improve real estate policies based on local realities, and support rigid and improved housing needs. The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress once again mentioned that the city's policies to support rigid and improved housing needs, and the central government has repeatedly released positive policy signals.
This year, local demand-side support policies have been launched frequently. In May, there have been more than 90 adjustments. Since March, at least 18 provincial capital cities have issued 26 policies. However, how much reasonable housing needs are met by various demand-side policies and regulations depends on the market. Find answers on.
Overall, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, housing prices in 70 cities did not show signs of recovery in April, while housing prices in first-, second-, and third-tier cities generally declined month-on-month and continued to decline year-on-year.In terms of transactions, from January to April, the sales area of commercial housing fell by 25.4% year-on-year, and the decline in transaction volume expanded. At the end of April, the area of commercial housing for sale increased by 14.8% year-on-year.
From the perspective of the national real estate market, the effect of policy regulation has not been obvious.However, the urban market is clearly differentiated, and the response to the transmission of provincial capital city policies to the market also varies from city to city.
Take Zhengzhou, the first city to release policies since March, Harbin, the first city to lift sales restrictions, Shenyang, which has intensively released support policies, and five hot cities, Hangzhou and Chengdu, as examples to observe the market situation after the release of their policies. , Hangzhou's regulation effect is the most significant among the 5 cities.
"In the past week of the New Deal, the Hangzhou real estate market has shown signs of recovery, and the promotion effect is obvious." Shangguanjian, president of Hangzhou Shell Research Institute, told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter.Shangguanjian said that as of May 24, after the new policy, the number of customer views increased by 81%, the number of listed properties increased by 72%, the supply and demand increased effectively, and the transaction volume increased slightly.
Shangguanjian believes that for the current Hangzhou property market, it is at least a good start. From the initial just-needed entry to the later drive improvement and replacement, synchronization can mobilize the liquidity of the entire second-hand housing in an orderly manner, and will also promote the new housing market. The transaction is conducive to the restoration of the virtuous circle of the real estate market ecology.
In contrast, the policy released by Chengdu on May 16 is relatively mild. Although the second-hand housing market transactions have also increased after the New Deal, the overall market has not changed much.According to CRERUI data, from May 16th to 22nd, second-hand housing transactions in Chengdu amounted to 294,000 square meters, an increase of 19% month-on-month, a high position during the year.But judging from interviews with local homebuyers, real estate brokers and people from real estate companies, the local market is generally stable.
Affected by the epidemic and the "July 20" heavy rain disaster in Zhengzhou, the Zhengzhou market was still operating at the bottom in March and April, and the policy effect was limited.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics and Zhengzhou Housing Security and Real Estate Administration, after the policy was released, the prices of new and second-hand houses in Zhengzhou did not stop falling in March and April, and the transactions improved, but there was still a big gap compared with the same period last year.In April, the prices of new houses and second-hand houses in Zhengzhou fell by 0.3% and 0.5% respectively month-on-month; 6,898 new and second-hand houses were transacted, down 67% and 18% year-on-year, respectively.
Recently, Zhengzhou's first home loan interest rate and second home loan interest rate have dropped to 4.25% and 5.05%, respectively. The inspection and transaction have improved, and the bottom of the market is being repaired.
Despite the intensive introduction of policies, the Shenyang real estate market has not recovered.At the beginning of May, a salesperson of a Shenyang brand real estate company told reporters that the transaction in the Shenyang real estate market is still sluggish, and the market recovery still needs a cycle.According to data from the R&D Department of Shenyang Zhongyuan, from May 16 to 22, the transaction volume and price of the Shenyang property market declined. As of May 22, the inventory of commercial housing in Shenyang was 16.33 million square meters, and the destocking cycle was about 19 months.
Comparatively speaking, Harbin has the strongest policy among the 5 cities. The sales restriction policy is one of the key means to curb the demand for investment and real estate speculation.
Tao Han, deputy general manager of E-House Harbin and executive director of the Harbin Real Estate Brokers and Professional Managers Industry Association, told reporters that after the abolition of sales restrictions, a large number of second-hand houses were newly listed in Harbin. The performance is not good, and it further increases the difficulty of selling new houses.
Tao Han said that the epidemic is the main reason affecting the recent Harbin market.According to the report of Harbin Junke Real Estate Data Research Center, major sales offices in Harbin continued to close in April, and transactions fell significantly.
After the release of the demand-side policy, the market feedback in the five cities was different. On the one hand, the market changes were related to the policy strength. They were also hot provincial capital cities.Shangguanjian said that the inventory of second-hand houses in Hangzhou is relatively high and the market demand is weak. The new policy has greatly lowered the threshold for purchasing houses, which can release a large amount of demand in a short period of time and make up for the shortage of purchases after the previous "85 New Deal".
However, on the other hand, the effect of the policy is also related to the fundamentals of the city. For example, Hangzhou and Chengdu have relatively strong industries, with continuous inflow of population and strong purchasing power, while the continuous outflow of population in Harbin increases the difficulty of market delisting.
In addition, it is also affected by unexpected factors. For example, due to the impact of the epidemic, Harbin has been unable to see properties offline for a long time, and the transaction difficulty has increased. Zhengzhou has been affected by the "7.20" heavy rain disaster in Zhengzhou, and the market is still recovering.At present, factors such as the downward pressure on the macro economy, the bottom repair and sluggish expectations of the real estate industry, the uncertainty of the epidemic, and the instability of personal employment and income also affect the release of policy effects.
On the whole, Meng Xinxin, an analyst at the Index Division of the China Index Research Institute, analyzed to reporters that this year, the policy optimization and adjustment at both ends of supply and demand in various places continued to increase, and this round of regulation will help promote the release of reasonable housing demand.However, the current real estate market in many cities is still facing great adjustment pressure. The improvement of policies on the demand side will help to speed up the pace of market recovery. Adjust the cycle of the city.
