Reporter Meng Ke
The National Bureau of Statistics will release May consumer price index (CPI) and industrial producer price index (PPI) data next week.In this regard, the "Securities Daily" reporter interviewed five chief economists or chief analysts to look ahead to the data in May, and based on this, make a judgment on the current economic situation.
Experts generally believe that the current inflation level is still moderate, and the CPI may rise to a certain extent, but in the context of the controllable risk of "lard resonance", the rise will not be too large.As the domestic upstream raw material supply and price stability increase, the downward trend of the PPI year-on-year increase in the later period will continue.
CPI is expected in May
A slight increase year-on-year
"It is expected that the CPI in May will increase by 2.3% year-on-year, which is a moderate increase from April." Lian Ping, chief economist and dean of the Research Institute of Zhixin Investment, said that in May, due to factors such as repeated epidemics, the CPI may rise slightly.However, as companies resume work and production and logistics are further smoothed, the rate of increase will weaken.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Oriental Jincheng, predicts that the year-on-year increase in CPI in May is about 2.2%.Although the recent high inflationary pressures in Europe and the United States and other economies have become prominent, the overall domestic price situation is stable and continues to be in a moderate and controllable state.
Wang Qing's specific analysis said that pork and vegetable prices, which have a greater impact on the CPI trend, had new changes in May.With the accelerated reduction of live pig production capacity, the phenomenon of slaughtering has eased, and the superimposed demand has rebounded. The pork price in May rose by about 11.0% compared with April.However, in May, when vegetables entered the peak supply season, the price dropped sharply compared with that in April, and the price base of the same period last year was relatively high. In May, the year-on-year increase of vegetable prices dropped significantly.
Zhao Wei, chief economist of Sinolink Securities, said that the CPI is expected to rise slightly year-on-year in May.The short-term impact of the epidemic is still reflected in the data in May. High-frequency data shows that among food items, fruits and eggs are still rising super-seasonally, and pork prices are rising.Among non-food items, the price increase of refined oil has led to a rise in the price of manufactured products, and the price of services may drop slightly due to the impact of the epidemic.In addition, the tail-raising factor also contributed to the CPI in May.
"The CPI may rise slightly year-on-year, but the speed will slow down." You Chunye, chief macro analyst at Pacific Securities, said that on the one hand, the pig cycle has started, and pork prices may drive the CPI upward to a certain extent.On the other hand, the price of fresh vegetables has continued to fall since May, the price of fresh fruit, eggs and other foods has slowed down, and the impact of the epidemic on the price of vegetables and fruits has weakened. The price of related products will fall further in this month, restraining the CPI from rising too fast.
Year-on-year increase in PPI in May
or about 7%
"It is expected that the PPI in May will increase by about 7% year-on-year, which is a drop from the 8% in April." Lian Ping said that the international bulk commodity prices in May were differentiated, and the prices of energy products fell slightly. Non-energy products represented by grain Prices continue to rise, which in turn drives the price of production means in the PPI sub-item to fall month-on-month and the price of living materials to rise month-on-month. Since the weight of the former is higher than that of the latter, the PPI will weaken month-on-month.
CITIC Securities Chief Economist Mingming said that in May, both the purchase price of raw materials and the ex-factory price of PMI fell significantly, especially the ex-factory price PMI, which has fallen below the line of prosperity and decline; the prices of major commodities such as petroleum and petrochemicals, black non-ferrous metals, coal and cement etc. Most of the month-on-month prices were flat or slightly down. In general, the PPI in May fell slightly month-on-month, and the high base effect drove the PPI to further decline year-on-year.
Wang Qing predicts that the PPI in May rose by about 6.8% year-on-year, down 1.2 percentage points from April.This means that the cost pressure of mid- and downstream enterprises is being eased.
You Chunye expects that the PPI will fall faster in the future, the impact of the decline in raw material prices will gradually appear in the next few months, and the squeeze on the profits of the downstream industry from upstream costs will be alleviated in the future.
Lian Ping also said that the weakening of PPI, on the one hand, will help ease the pressure of price increases in the transmission of PPI to CPI, and on the other hand, it will also help to improve the situation of "two ends squeezed" in the operation of mid-stream and downstream enterprises.
"From May to June, the 'scissors gap' between CPI and PPI will further narrow, and the narrowing range may expand due to the sharp drop in PPI." Lian Ping said.
Downstream small and micro enterprises cost pressure
will be relieved
"The current level of inflation is still moderate. Recently, the country has paid close attention to the inflation situation, emphasizing ensuring the stability of grain output and supply, laying a solid price foundation, maintaining the stability of the industrial chain and supply chain, and ensuring the normal supply of energy, etc., which is conducive to stabilizing the price level." Zhao Wei said.
Looking forward to the future, Wang Qing said that the current CPI rise is moderate. Although there is a possibility of an upward trend in the later period, under the background of controllable risks of "lard resonance", the possibility of the year-on-year CPI increase exceeding the control target of 3.0% in the second half of the year is low.It is recommended to increase support for residents' consumption by issuing consumer coupons, solve the problem of insufficient orders for enterprises, and promote the balanced restoration of the macro economy at both ends of supply and demand.
"In terms of PPI, although the prices of international bulk commodities such as crude oil are high and difficult to fall, with the higher base in the same period last year and the continued increase in the domestic upstream raw material supply and price stabilization efforts, the downward trend of the year-on-year increase in PPI in the later period will continue." Wang Qing said In the short term, the year-on-year increase of PPI is still high, but it is expected to fall back to a lower level before the end of the year.In this context, the cost pressure of downstream small and micro enterprises will be further eased.
In Mingming's view, the current inflation is still showing structural characteristics, the year-on-year increase of CPI is at a moderate level, and there is a certain upward pressure; the year-on-year increase of PPI is still relatively high, but it will tend to decline in the future.In the follow-up, we need to focus on the fluctuation of food and energy prices, and do a good job in ensuring food production, energy supply and stable prices.In the second half of the year, a new round of pig cycle is about to start, and it is necessary to do a good job in the guidance of live pig breeding policies and the release of reserved pork.
(Editor in charge: Guan Jing)
