In May, the A-share market stabilized and rebounded, and many hot sectors including automobiles, power equipment, and defense and military industries rebounded significantly.With the end of "Red May", a number of institutions have recently released market strategy reports for June.Looking forward to the market outlook, institutions generally believe that the intensive introduction of macro-level policies has boosted market sentiment, and external factors have also shown positive changes, and the mid-term recovery of A shares is expected to continue.From the perspective of investment strategy, the institution focuses on a number of main lines including new energy, large consumption, and the resumption of work and production in the automobile and other manufacturing industries.
The macro environment is gradually improving, and institutions are optimistic about the value of the mid-line
With the successive introduction of economic stabilization measures, the market has continued to rebound since late April.Wind data shows that as of the close on May 31, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index all rose within the month, with an increase of 4.57%, 4.59% and 3.71% respectively.In terms of transaction volume, the overall transaction volume in May increased slightly, but it only exceeded one trillion yuan on May 11, and the game situation of stock funds is obvious.
From an industry perspective, a number of hot sectors including automobiles, power equipment, and defense and military industries have formed a rebound relay.Wind data shows that as of May 31, 29 of the 31 Shenwan tier-one industries closed up in May.The automotive, petroleum and petrochemical, power equipment, defense and military industries, basic chemicals, mechanical equipment and environmental protection industries rose by more than 10% in the month. Among them, the automotive industry index rose by 18.26% in the month, ranking first among all industries.
It is worth noting that in May, northbound funds "running into the market".On May 31, the single-day net purchase of northbound funds once again exceeded 10 billion yuan, reaching 13.865 billion yuan.Prior to May 20, the net purchase of northbound funds in a single day was 14.236 billion yuan, a new high for the year.In the whole month of May, the net purchase of northbound funds reached 16.867 billion yuan, making it the highest month of the year for the net purchase of northbound funds.
Based on the strategy report released a few days ago, in the view of many institutions, the current A shares are still in the bottom-grinding stage, and under the challenges of the internal and external environment, the bottom may still be shaken in June.However, the effect of the policy is gradually emerging, and the overseas impact is also being reduced. From a medium-term perspective, the macro environment continues to improve, and the market recovery is expected to continue.
"Since mid-May, transportation, logistics, and resumption of work and business have been steadily advancing, and the freight volume of railways, highways, and civil aviation has been picking up. High-frequency data such as the operating rate of all-steel tires for automobiles and the operating rate of blast furnaces also show that industrial production has resumed in an orderly manner. CITIC Securities stated in its June strategy report that with the gradual lifting of the epidemic restrictions, the policy will enter the effective period of centralized implementation and help the economy to recover in an all-round way.The pressure of overseas factors on A-shares is also constantly reducing, the market liquidity margin is improving, and the medium-term repair market that has been started continues.
CICC expects that macro liquidity is expected to remain ample in the second half of the year, interest rates may be stable and declining, and the improvement of stock market liquidity depends on the improvement of risk appetite.At present, the valuations of several indices in the A-share market are at a low level in the historical range, and the market sentiment indicators are also at a moderately low level, all showing that the market already has a mid-line value.However, the internal and external environment of the market may still face certain challenges in the second half of the year, and the upside needs more positive catalyst support.
"In June, the market is in a steady state game, and the probability of sideways consolidation is higher, and the rebound space is viewed step by step. The core driving force from the rebound to the reversal is the real recovery of the domestic economy and performance, as well as the relief of overseas geopolitical pressure." Soochow Securities Analysis Teacher Zhang Qiyao said that in June, the country was warm as a whole, and the main line turned to steady growth.
"Epidemic repair" has become a hot topic in the second half of the year or tends to grow
From the perspective of future investment direction, the views of institutions are slightly different.From a short-term perspective, institutions focus on the main line of stabilizing growth, the main line of resuming production and manufacturing, and the large consumption sector under the recovery of the epidemic.From a medium-term perspective, the field of "new kinetic energy" represented by growth styles has attracted attention.
"Whether the macro environment has improved significantly depends on the implementation of the policy of stabilizing growth. The overall market valuation is at a low position, and the value style has outperformed the growth style for a certain period of time. Will there be a phased restoration of the overall market valuation in the second half of the year? The opportunity for the style to return to growth is worth watching.” CICC believes that the industry allocation strategy in the second half of the year includes “steady growth” or some areas with policy support, such as infrastructure, building materials, automobiles and housing-related industries; valuations are not high Areas with relatively little correlation with macro fluctuations, such as infrastructure, electricity and public utilities, hydropower, etc.; some areas where fundamentals have bottomed out, supply is constrained or the degree of prosperity continues to improve, such as agriculture, some non-ferrous metals and some chemicals Sub-industries, coal, photovoltaic and military industries, etc.
CITIC Securities said that the centralized implementation of policies and effective results will promote the rapid recovery of fundamentals.The pressure of overseas factors on A-shares has eased, investor confidence has continued to accumulate, and the mid-term recovery market has continued, showing the characteristics of three main lines of slow growth.Specifically, it includes the main line of infrastructure and real estate for steady growth, the main line of consumption for epidemic recovery, such as mass consumer goods and consumer services, and the main line of resumption of production and manufacturing, such as the automotive industry chain, the new energy industry chain, and the military industry whose first quarterly report exceeded expectations.
Chuancai Securities believes that strengthening infrastructure construction is an effective means to "stabilize growth and expand domestic demand", and superimpose the current accelerated issuance of special bonds. It is expected that there will be a large increase in infrastructure investment this year, and relevant industry sectors are expected to usher in opportunities.In addition, with the effective control of the domestic epidemic and the successive introduction of "consumption promotion" policies in various places, the consumer industry is expected to recover, focusing on fields such as automobiles and consumer electronics.
Guotai Junan believes that after mid-to-early June, demand judgment will dominate the market again, and A-shares will return to fundamentals and performance certainty.The areas that the agency is more optimistic about include public investment sectors, including construction, power grids, solar and wind power, consumer building materials, etc., holding physical assets and having a stable cash flow direction, such as coal, chemical resources, etc., and focusing on the supply side layout Optimized consumption, such as live pigs, food and beverages, hotels and technology leaders in Hong Kong stocks.
Chen Guo of CITIC Construction Investment said that China's economy has bid farewell to the old real estate cycle, and the new momentum is still accumulating strength, and the economy will undergo a necessary adjustment and transition.In the medium term, the growth rate of the total A shares is weak, the liquidity is abundant and continuously improving, the growth style is dominant, and the small and medium-cap style is dominant.It is expected that after a new round of policy overweight, the market is expected to rise again in the third quarter, and the growth style will lead.
(Editor in charge: Guan Jing
