In the context of comprehensive measures, analysts interviewed by the "Securities Daily" reporter expected that the new credit in May will rebound sharply from 645.4 billion yuan in April.
Financial data for May will be released soon.After further deployment of a package of measures to stabilize the economy at the National Standing Committee on May 23, the People's Bank of China (hereinafter referred to as the "central bank") and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission held an analysis meeting on the monetary and credit situation of major financial institutions, emphasizing that the financial system should make good use of various policy tools , to support the high-quality economic development with moderate credit growth from the aspects of expanding and stabilizing the stock.On the same day, the central bank held a video conference on the analysis of the monetary and credit situation of the whole system, and proposed to guide financial institutions to go all out to increase loan issuance and enhance the stability of the growth of total credit.
Tan Yiming, chief analyst of fixed income at Minsheng Securities, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that the scale of new credit in May is expected to be 1.5 trillion yuan.From a structural point of view, bill financing and short-term corporate loans may still be the main support, and medium and long-term corporate loans are expected to improve slightly, but the year-on-year improvement may be limited.Under the influence of the epidemic, there is a certain time lag in the effect of the combined policy of stabilizing employment and protecting people's livelihood. Therefore, residents' income and willingness to consume may continue to weaken in May, and residents' short-term loans will continue to show a year-on-year decrease in May.In addition, the sales of commercial housing in May have not shown substantial improvement, and it is expected that long-term and medium-term loans to residents may continue to decrease year-on-year in May.
Zhang Yu, assistant director and chief macro analyst at Huachuang Securities Research Institute, believes that new loans in May are expected to be around 1.2 trillion yuan, down 300 billion yuan from the same period last year.First of all, in May, the bank rediscount rate of national stocks further fell, and the 3-month interest rate approached 0.Even if bill interest rates start to recover marginally after May 26, with reference to the experience in December 20v21, the effect of the credit impulse in the last week is not expected to be enough to reverse the year-on-year decrease in credit growth.Second, resident loans are expected to remain sluggish.
A number of institutions have also given forward-looking data.CITIC Securities expects new renminbi credit to reach 1.3 trillion yuan in May, slightly lower than the same period last year, but not too far behind.
Guotai Junan predicts that the new credit scale in May will be about 1.5 trillion yuan, which is the same as the level in the same period in May 2021. The residential side has recovered and the enterprise side is weak.
Zhongtai Securities believes that under the background of the policy's continuous emphasis on increasing credit issuance, it is expected that the new credit will still be slightly higher than the level of the same period last year, and the scale of new credit in May may be 1.6 trillion yuan.
China Merchants Securities predicts that credit demand will remain weak in May, but policy efforts will boost credit growth.Since the beginning of April, domestic epidemics have frequently occurred, real estate sales in May still fell sharply year-on-year, and personal credit demand continued to be sluggish.However, the policy requires all efforts to achieve reasonable credit growth in May. The short-term rediscount interest rate rebounded significantly at the end of May, and was only slightly lower than the interest rate of the same-term interbank certificate of deposit, which reflects the significant improvement in the amount of credit in late May.New loans in May are expected to be 1.55 trillion yuan, close to the same period last year.
Our reporter Liu Qi
(Editor in charge: Jiang Ninglu)
