Facing the severe economic situation, Shenzhen, the special zone, once again showed the courage to be a pioneer.The courage of Shenzhen as a pioneering demonstration area not only appears in the field of science and technology, but also in an area that is easily overlooked: consumption.
In 2021, the total retail sales of consumer goods in Shenzhen will increase by 9% to 949.812 billion yuan, just one step away from breaking the trillion mark—Shenzhen has ushered in an important tipping point in the consumption field.
The Shenzhen of technology is widely known, while the Shenzhen of consumption is quietly growing.Will the quietly growing consumption in Shenzhen continue to surprise people?
01
income and consumption
In July 2021, Shenzhen, which has repeatedly been authorized by the policy in advance, was named Luosunshan on a national list.This list is the first batch of international consumption center cities approved by the State Council. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Tianjin and Chongqing are on the list.
In the impression of many people, the reason why Shenzhen is not on the list may be very simple: Shenzhen has always been a city of "making money", but not a city of consumption.
In 2021, Shenzhen's GDP will exceed 3 trillion yuan, but its total retail sales of consumer goods as a percentage of GDP will be the lowest among the top ten cities in GDP.
The contrast between income and consumption, to a certain extent, reflects the shortcomings of Shenzhen's consumption.
There are three reasons for the shortage of consumption in Shenzhen: first, Shenzhen people are unwilling to consume; second, it is inconvenient to consume in Shenzhen; third, Shenzhen people do not consume in Shenzhen.
Why are Shenzhen people reluctant to consume?This is related to the high housing prices that have plagued Shenzhen for many years.Everyone knows that first-tier cities have high housing prices, and Shenzhen is even more thriving among first-tier cities.
From the perspective of housing price-to-income ratio over the years, Shenzhen is far ahead of other first-tier cities.
The average salary of on-the-job employees in 2020 released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that the average salary of on-the-job employees in Shenzhen is 139,436 yuan, lower than Beijing (185,026) and Shanghai (174,678), and slightly higher than Guangzhou (135,138).Compared with Guangzhou, there is not much difference in the average salary of on-the-job workers, but the average housing price in Shenzhen is much higher than that in Guangzhou.
In 2020, Shenzhen's housing price-to-income ratio is much higher than that of Beishang and twice that of Guangzhou.Simply put, if it takes 40 years to buy a 100-square-meter house in Guangzhou, it will take 80 years in Shenzhen.
High housing prices and high rents squeeze the consumption power of Shenzhen residents.
There is also the question of whether consumer demand can be met.
Zhao Shenghui, a researcher at the China (Shenzhen) Comprehensive Development Research Institute, once pointed out that the key core problem of Shenzhen building an international consumption center city is that the "consumption center" has insufficient functions, there is no large-scale e-commerce platform online, and there is no benchmarking core business district and high experience offline. Sexual characteristic tourism projects lack attraction to consumers in the surrounding area, the whole country, and even the world.From the perspective of representative commercial projects of luxury brands in first-tier cities, only Luohu MixC in Shenzhen has a brand effect, while Shanghai has 14, Beijing has 8, and Guangzhou has 2.
Shenzhen has not yet formed a consumption carrying capacity that is compatible with the local consumption capacity.When consumption cannot be satisfied, the enthusiasm for consumption will overflow.
Shenzhen is adjacent to Guangzhou, the "millennium commercial capital" in the north and Hong Kong, the "shopping paradise" in the south. Cross-border e-commerce is also gradually emerging.Shenzhen is not only unable to "siphon" the consumption of surrounding cities, but the share of local consumption is also flowing out.
The Shenzhen Retail Business Association once pointed out that in 2013, the consumption of Shenzhen residents in Hong Kong was about 45.54 billion yuan.
According to statistics, in 2020, affected by the epidemic, mid-to-high-end consumption will return, and the total retail sales of consumer goods in Shenzhen will increase by as much as 24%, an increase of 208.2 billion yuan over the previous year.
It can be seen that consumption diversion has a very large impact on Shenzhen's local consumption growth.
Adjacent to Guangzhou and Hong Kong is good for Shenzhen residents, but if Shenzhen wants to build an international consumption center city, it must form its own unique advantages. While retaining local consumption, it will absorb the consumption of surrounding cities.
02
Technology and Consumption
How does Shenzhen solve the three major problems of "residents' unwillingness to consume, insufficient consumption carrying capacity, and consumption diversion" step by step?To answer this question, we have to go back to the core of Shenzhen's development: technology.
Unlike Beijing, Shanghai, Xi'an, Wuhan, Guangzhou and other cities, Shenzhen lacks scientific research institutions such as universities and national laboratories.Shenzhen can be called a "national innovative city" because of its strong talent attraction and strong technology marketization capabilities.
Judging from the population data of the past ten years, Shenzhen is still the most attractive city in the first-tier cities.From 2010 to 2020, Shenzhen's resident population increased by 7.2 million, ranking first among first-tier cities.Among them, the "college and above" population increased by 3.2869 million.
Although Shenzhen's population will increase by only 47,800 in 2021, Shenzhen is adjusting its population policy to attract mid-to-high-end talents, further optimizing the population structure, and realizing the sustainable development of the city.The slowdown in population growth is the result of "high-level" industrialization and "high-level" urbanization.
In addition, Shenzhen is building a university at the speed of a special zone.According to statistics from the Shenzhen Education Bureau, Shenzhen has built an average of one university a year in the past ten years. By 2022, there will be 15 ordinary universities in Shenzhen.
Shenzhen is building universities and recruiting talents. While making up for the innate deficiencies, the blessing of market culture also makes its core competitiveness - "technology marketization" further manifested.
The world-class management consulting firm McKinsey once wrote this paragraph when analyzing Shenzhen:
"Shenzhen attracts entrepreneurs who are endlessly passionate about new manufacturing methods. Anyone can come to Shenzhen with an idea, prototype, test, manufacture and bring it to the market at a reasonable price. The refined division of labor in the industrial chain allows enterprises to It becomes possible, and a small thing in the industrial chain can become a big enterprise.”
A typical case of technology empowering the traditional retail industry is the new retail transformation road of Pagoda.In 2019, Pagoda launched the “Pagoda Xinxiang” fresh food platform; in 2020, Pagoda launched the community group purchase platform “Panda Fresh” to get involved in community group purchases.High-tech is adding wings to the traditional retail industry.
Hua Tao, executive chairman of Shenzhen Retail Business Association, also pointed out: "We are now discussing, through AR/VR technology, consumers can directly see how an orchard cultivates fruit, and consumers can see fruit trees. Even a certain fruit from a certain tree, and then directly place an order, and the orchard will immediately label the fruit, and after a few hours, the fruit will be in the hands of consumers.”
Relying on science and technology, the economic and consumption growth driven by changing the traditional retail method is gratifying.According to the data, Pagoda’s revenue in 2021 will be 10.2894 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%.
03
what did shenzhen do
During the "May 1st" holiday, Shenzhen is really on fire.The relevant departments of Shenzhen have announced that from April 28 to the end of May, they will successively issue 500 million yuan of consumer coupons to citizens in Shenzhen.
According to the statistics of UnionPay Business Big Data, during the May 1st holiday in Shenzhen, there was a strong consumption atmosphere, and the overall consumption amount exceeded 23 billion yuan, showing an upward trend year-on-year.
Shenzhen's determination to support citizens' consumption and release market vitality with its strong financial strength can be learned from.The incentive method of "real money" has long been reflected in Shenzhen's previous policies.
In 2020, Shenzhen will introduce innovative measures to support online companies to expand their online business, promote omni-channel matrix marketing of "platform sales + live streaming + short video", and create a group of new retail demonstration enterprises, which will increase their retail sales according to their retail sales. Part of the 0.5% will be rewarded, and the maximum reward for a single enterprise is 10 million yuan.
The "fingertip economy" based on "live streaming and online consumption" saves both time and space, which just hits the door of Shenzhen's consumption.
The gratifying change is that in 2021, Shenzhen’s online retail sales will be eye-catching, and the retail sales of goods by units above the designated size through the Internet will increase by 44.3% year-on-year. It increased by 15.0%, accounting for 14.3% of the total retail sales of consumer goods.
On the other hand, affected by the epidemic, Shenzhen's mid-to-high-end consumption has returned significantly, but to maintain growth after the epidemic, Shenzhen needs to make up for its own deficiencies before the "window period" closes.
On February 18, 2022, Shenzhen proposed that by 2025, there will be 200 new designated shops for departure tax refund in Shenzhen.
We can see that Shenzhen is building overweight duty-free shops.However, the construction of duty-free shops is not a one-day achievement. How to introduce a variety of high-quality merchants?How to bring more favorable prices and better consumer experience to consumers?
Shenzhen needs to create a "consumption paradise" different from Hong Kong.
The famous American scholar Joel Kotkin mentioned in "The History of Global Urban Development":
"Man's greatest achievement has always been the city she created. The city represents the grandiose work of our imagination as a species."
From a small fishing village to an international metropolis, Shenzhen is a testament to the masterpiece of the human imagination.Shenzhen, which has entered the year of "no confusion", is at the forefront of the country in the field of science and technology; in the field of consumption, Shenzhen still has great potential.Will the Shenzhen story of "technology + consumption" still be as exciting as the past SAR stories?
Author|Shi Dengjiang, researcher at Southern Weekend
Editor|Dai Chunchen
Visualization|Shi Dengjiang
(Head image/Visual China)
1. Shenzhen Retail Business Association, "2013 Survey Report on Shenzhen Residents' Shopping in Hong Kong";
2. The Southern Weekly Urban (Regional) Research Center released the "57 Cities Population Growth List 2021";
3. "Several Measures of Shenzhen Municipality on Further Stimulating Consumption Vitality and Promoting Consumption Growth", May 2021.
