Investing in chess, fund companies can be said to be very handy in the face of this year's college entrance examination composition.
Coinciding with the time of the college entrance examination, despite being away from the examination room for many years, seeing the composition questions of the college entrance examination still arouses the public's thinking, especially the composition questions of the first volume of the national new college entrance examination this year, which have caused heated discussions on social networks.Many fund companies have a deep understanding of it:
Ruiyuan Fund believes that this move is a regular move that is consistent with chess logic; a good move is an unexpected and subtle move;There are also Ten Commandments in Go: Don’t be greedy for victory, be slow in entering the world, take care of yourself when attacking others, give up your son to be the first, give up the small and take the big, give up when you are in danger, be careful not to be rash, move accordingly, be strong and protect yourself, Potential isolation and harmony.
In Wells Fargo's view, this hand represents solid fundamental research.The skill is the formation of investment philosophy/methodology.As for the vulgar, it is a step-by-step investment technique.
Rongtong Fund analyzes the three scenarios of Go, fighting, and investment, and progresses layer by layer, leading to the central idea: no matter the market rises or falls, deduct money to buy on time every month, and obtain an average cost in the long run. Waiting for the market to arrive, it seems bland, there is no "smart hand", but the victory lies in "step by step" and continuous accumulation.
Industrial Securities Global Fund has discussed the "excellent hand" and "vulgar hand" in investment three times before, saying that, like Go, investment is about long-distance running, and short-term sharpness does not necessarily bring long-term victory.
Caitong Securities Asset Management wrote five essays for the college entrance examination, which corresponded the five college entrance examination essay topics to investment, and summed up many investment experiences, such as: investment is a high-intensity long-term competition, no matter what style of investment, it is right The core behind the realization of the cognition of the economic development of the times and industrial changes is actually the ability to keep pace with the times and keep iterating.
Ruiyuan Fund: "The Hand, the Hand, and the Hand" in Investment
There is a saying in Go that there are "master, skill, and unskilled": master moves are regular moves that conform to chess logic; master moves are unexpected and subtle moves; unskilled moves are seemingly reasonable moves that are usually damaged from an overall perspective .There are also Ten Commandments in Go: Don’t be greedy for victory, be slow in entering the world, take care of yourself when attacking others, give up your son to be the first, give up the small and take the big, give up when you are in danger, be careful not to be rash, move accordingly, be strong and protect yourself, Potential isolation and harmony.
keep calm and manage risk
Not being greedy is a behavior based on rational thinking and calm judgment.Not being greedy for victory does not make us give up our desire to win, nor is it some so-called "Buddha system", but reminds us to keep our minds calm and avoid temptation at all times.
There are wins, losses and draws in the game of Go. The primary goal is to "seek undefeated", and undefeated often belongs to the side with fewer mistakes.Investing is to make money, but it is also the art of "not losing money". The primary consideration is also how to manage risks and reduce mistakes.
We should think more rationally about what to invest in, rather than acting on the instinctive reaction caused by the short-term rise or fall of the market.We trade in the market, but the exchange should follow our investment rules and theories, grasp the investment process well, and "work hard and follow the fate".
Otherwise, the market changes turbulently, and all the reasons for supporting the transaction may be overturned in an instant and “converted”. If this happens, the cost of making mistakes is too high, and it is very easy to fall into a loss situation.
Don't seek mastery, but seek success
Win rate is an important factor in determining long-term excess returns.
The last commandment not to be greedy for victory is: slow entry into the realm.This "slowness" is not absolute slowness, but a kind of "accumulation".It is very difficult to win in a longer and larger "inning" if small victories are pursued and big losses are tolerated.
Go master Lee Chang-ho said in his autobiography "Don't be greedy to win", "Don't seek a good hand, but seek to accumulate victory", this also applies to our investment, it seems that there is always a "good hand" who gets rich overnight, but we should be "accumulated". Victory" and feel at ease.Accumulate excess returns through long-term winning rates higher than 50%.
In the same way, it is not particularly difficult for fund managers to rank in the top 1/2 and the top 1/3 of the market every year or two, but if they can maintain such a range all year round, they will be very likely to be in the top for a long period of time. .
According to Wind data, we extracted the data of Wind hybrid funds in the past 5 full years. The statistical interval is from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2019. There are 723 funds that have been established for 5 years.
Data found:
1. Among the top ten funds in terms of net value growth rate of re-weighted units, 7 funds are ranked in the top 1/2 every year, and the remaining 3 funds are ranked in the top 1/2 for four years; The top 1/2 funds swept the top six.
2. Among the 723 comparable funds, a total of 44 funds are ranked in the top half of the market every year, and the fund with the lowest total return among these 44 funds can still be ranked in the top two in the entire market. One in one (319/723).
3. If two of the five years are in the top quintile, then the best fund can only be ranked 32nd in the five-year total return list.
4. If only one of the five years was in the top quintile, then the best fund was only 73rd in the five-year total return list.
Don't be greedy, bet against the principal
Li Changhao's chess, when faced with constant provocations by his opponents, often kept accumulating his own positions in a steady advance, restraining the urge to rush into the opponent's formation and fight.
In this way, we should also avoid "inverted pyramid" investment in the investment.
When the market is in the early stage of a one-sided rise, try a small knife, buy a little and try it first.But the market is in a one-sided upward phase, so basically you can make money no matter what you buy, and even if you buy the wrong one, you may make more money than if you buy the right one.
Such a situation will make us full of self-confidence, because our attempts are verified, then whether our original ideas are objectively rational and correct or not, have been confirmed, positive feedback will stimulate our cognition, let us "invest" More".
At this time, a common way to enter the market is to buy more and more as the market rises, which is the "inverted pyramid" investment.
Why is it wrong to invest the principal in this way?
Let’s take an example: Suppose we currently have a total of more than 100,000 funds that can be invested in funds.
A small test to build a position: first invest 1,000 yuan, a small test, and earn 20%, I think it is very good;
Profitable increase of positions: an additional 10,000 yuan is added, and a 10% return is obtained, which feels great;
High-level heavy warehouse: It seems that this product is good, so I increased the investment, and added an additional 100,000 yuan.
What if it dropped 5% at this point?
A positive return of about 25% for the entire range is still a good performance for this fund.But if we look at our actual return on investment, it's probably like this:
Without considering the transaction rate, the first money made 250 yuan, the second money made 417 yuan, the third money lost 5303 yuan, and the total loss was 4636 yuan, which is 25% of the total product range. rate in stark contrast.
Using a chart to simulate, it is the following form:
"Inverted Pyramid" Investing
In investing, we might as well maintain more "hands" to pursue a more stable foundation and longer-term victories.Slow is fast.
Wells Fargo Fund: Investment is like a game of chess
Investing is like a game of chess.
The chess field requires a step-by-step approach, starting with the formation, moving in the middle, and closing the game at the end. As a whole, you must act cautiously and take precautions.Investment also needs to be steady and steady. Initial research and selection, mid-term increase and reduction of positions, and end-to-end profit take-up are required. Every step requires careful decision-making and drawdown control.
In terms of the method of playing chess, Go has "master, master, and unskilled", and these three terms also correspond to the options in the actual investment process.When these methods reach a certain level, they are all philosophies of winning against dangerous situations, and they are also an attitude towards life.
Hands-on - solid fundamental research
Solid basic skills are always the core of the pursuit of victory. In chess games, it is the skillful use of one's own hands, and in investment, it is an in-depth study of the fundamentals.
Grasping the trend of corporate profit growth is one of the best investment strategies. The main line of the market always comes from the realization of corporate profits.If you invest in stocks, you need to understand the fundamentals and development potential of the company, the industry and economic environment, etc.; if you buy a fund, you need to have an in-depth perspective on the type of fund, investment direction, and the investment style of the fund manager. Knowing what you know, rather than repeating what others say; if you are investing in a broad category of assets, you need to be familiar with macro strategies, understand and pursue the rich ore brought by the torrent of the times.
Only by pondering these most real, basic and practical things can we build a strong cognitive ability circle and reap the dividends of cognition.
Hands-on - Formation of Investment Philosophy/Methodology
The best players in the chess game are always on the field and are talked about by latecomers; just like the "highlight moments" of some investment masters and fund managers, they are used by investors for repeated consideration and reference.
A good hand in investment is often achieved by taking certain risks. Excellent investment managers may have their own mature ideas and strong self-discipline to improve the winning rate of "good hand" under certain risks. Ordinary investors must not Hope to get it done.For example, in investment timing, we always think that we can do this multiple-choice question correctly, and the result is often repeatedly poured cold water by the market.
The formation of a good hand must go through intensive follow-up research on the market, repeated verification over the years, and then combined with the investor's own style to form an effective investment methodology, which is a relatively difficult process and must not be rushed.Moreover, investment methodologies are not static.
Lazy hands - step-by-step investment skills
The layman is a step-by-step and well-established method of playing chess. The method is stable and stable, and it will lead to direct failure at the expert level, but for the novice, the use of the layman may be the only way to go.
Under certain market trends, some "small rules" and "tricks" of investment may indeed work in the short term, but if you have a little understanding of the fundamentals, such methods are often untenable and are not conducive to the improvement of your own level.
For example, the popular "champion fund strategy" may be a "must-have" for many novice buyers.But in fact, most of the holdings of the annual championship bonus are mostly popular targets in the market, but the opposite of extremes is the law of nature, and it is also the eternal law of A shares.Over time, the champion fund strategy even has a "champion curse", which may actually not outperform the "median" strategy.This also shows that vulgar players need to use them flexibly after understanding the laws of the market.
In the turbulent A-share market, there are few permanent victors, and it is hard to see the same trend. We should avoid copying what others say, not blindly chasing "sexy" investment hotspots, and not blindly trusting Internet celebrity funds or fund managers.
Whether it is a master hand who expects to complete his work in one battle, or a vulgar player who expects "no tricks to win," in the end, it is necessary to return to a deep understanding of his own hands.
In many cases, the application of the master hand, the master hand and the vulgar hand may lead to victory, and the conclusion of which of the three is better or worse is not always the case.However, the organic application of the three methods must be for the pursuit of the ultimate victory, rather than obsessed with details and ingenuity. This is the big picture that chess players and investors should have, and it is also the charm of chess and investment.
Rongtong Fund: Fixed Investment: There is no good hand in all
Those who are good at chess are incompetent.
People who are very good at chess often don't have a magical move or a move to turn the tide in a whole game of chess.
It's a bit counterintuitive, why is that?
1. There is no skill at all in Go
There is a Go player in South Korea named Lee Chang-ho. He is a world-class top player in the Go world, and everyone who plays Go knows him.
Li Changho won the world championship at the age of 16, and is considered to be the next best player to Wu Qingyuan. He swept the players of China, Japan and South Korea in his peak period.
The biggest feature of Lee Chang-ho's chess game, and the trick that gives his opponents the most headaches, is that he never pursues "excellent moves".
Instead, each move only seeks a 51% win rate, commonly known as "half-eye win".
Usually, there are 200-300 moves in total in one game. Even if each move only has a little more than half of the winning rate, it only needs more than 100 moves at most to be able to win the game.
That is, as long as each move is a little bit better than the opponent, it is enough to win.
Lee Chang-ho once said to reporters: I never pursued a good hand, nor did I ever think of defeating my opponent in one fell swoop.The number one chess player in the world actually only pursues a 51% win rate,
To many journalists and industry insiders feel incredible.
This is precisely the strategy of the master, the so-called "master",
Although it looks cool and wins beautifully, there is a problem - when you give the opponent a fatal blow, you often expose your own flaws. dark.
Moreover, the "excellent hand" is unstable and unsustainable, and it is impossible to accumulate skills through deliberate practice. Once the "inspiration" is exhausted, it is inevitable to be at a loss.
Just like guarding a city, it is not enough to rely only on "special soldiers". After all, it must be protected by deep trenches and high fortresses.
In contrast, "no great hand in all" seems to be bland, but the victory is accumulated in bits and pieces, the crisis is invisible, and the final victory is stable and sure, which reflects another kind of "smart hand". wisdom.
2. "There is no good hand in all aspects of war"
There is an old saying in China: "A good fighter has no great achievements".
It means that people who are good at fighting often have no outstanding achievements.
At the end of the Qing Dynasty, the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom revolted. The Taiping army was extremely powerful. The 200,000 Eight Banners soldiers and 600,000 Green Battalion soldiers of the Qing Dynasty were vulnerable in front of them, but they were finally destroyed by the Hunan army led by Zeng Guofan. What happened? What's the matter?
Those who do not understand the situation must think that Zeng Guofan is a strategist who is familiar with the art of war and resourceful. In fact, on the contrary, before he led the Hunan Army, he did not have much experience in leading troops to fight, nor did he understand how to use troops.
The reason why we can win is actually just six words - build a strong fortress and fight a dull battle.
Zeng Guofan never fought head-to-head with the enemy, and even when the odds were high, he never launched an attack. Instead, he camped outside the city wherever he went, and then dug trenches and built high walls to turn offense into defense. Put yourself in an invincible position first.
The Taiping Army was very brave and good at fighting, and always wanted to fight with the Hunan Army, but the Hunan Army just kept its position and did not move.
As long as there is time, the Hunan army will continue to dig trenches, one after another, until the city is blocked, grass and food are cut off, and when the city runs out of ammunition and food, it can be easily overcome.
In this way, one city after another, digging trenches bit by bit, and arching forward step by step, the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom was completely destroyed.
The so-called "build a strong fortress and fight a dull battle", in short, is to occupy an invincible position first, and then slowly gain a small advantage.
Zeng Guofan is a person who likes to use "stupid" methods. He doesn't like tricky things, and he doesn't believe in things that make a lot of money.
Because the fruit of victory never comes out by force, but when it is fully ripe, it falls on its own.
In Sun Tzu's Art of War, it is said that victory is known, but cannot be done.
3. Investment "all without a good hand"
Investment guru Howard Marks once talked about such a fund in his investment memo:
At the time, I had just dined with a client who ran a large retirement fund in the United States.
He told me that of all retirement funds, he never managed a fund above 27% and never below 47%, so his fund was firmly in the middle.
This performance, which we call the second quartile (top 50%), is not the first quartile (top 25%), nor is it the bottom two quartiles (bottom 50%).
This has been the case for 14 consecutive years.
What do you think, in 2014, what is the performance of his fund?
You might say between 27% and 47%, the average might be 37%.
In fact, over the past 14 years, his fund has been ranked within the top 4% and is one of the best-performing funds in the United States.
Why?
How could he end up being the best among his peers since he didn't have a very successful year?
The answer is simple, he didn't have a bad year.The performance has remained stable and good every year.
Every year is good, some are good, some are average, never a bad year.
Sometimes great, sometimes good, sometimes mediocre, but never bad.
Avoid becoming a loser and naturally become a winner.
Howard Marks concludes that this is the secret to investing success.
We are all ordinary people, and in the stock market, we are undoubtedly the weaker side.
There is no investment research team, no massive data, no first-hand information, no regular company research, and no face-to-face communication with bigwigs in various industries...
But the interesting thing about the stock market is that the strong do not necessarily win, and the weak do not necessarily lose. The key is to find your own position and use the appropriate investment method.
People who make fixed votes admit that they are ordinary people.
Can't predict the market, can't research companies, have no information advantage, don't have much time and energy to invest in the stock market, and can't control their investment emotions well.
These weaknesses can be well avoided by fixed investment: fixed investment does not need to predict the market, insist on losing money, and take profit in time after reaching the income target. It is enough to grasp these two points; fixed investment does not need to study individual stocks and industries, index funds are simple and easy Peace of mind; you don’t need to pay attention every day for fixed investment, deduct money on time when due, what to do at other time; fixed investment does not require you to control your emotions, abide by the discipline of fixed investment, don’t give up easily.
Regardless of the market ups and downs, deduct money to buy on time every month, get an average cost in the long run, and wait for the arrival of market conditions.
It seems bland and there is no "smart hand", but the victory lies in "step by step" and continuous accumulation.
Sun Gong died, the merit is not donated by Tang.
China Industrial Securities Global Fund: Three Discussions on "Skillful Hands" and "Uncommon Hands" in Investment
Bian Que is the "excellent hand" in the Go world who can turn the tide in a key move and survive a desperate situation, while his two older brothers are "vulgar players" whose every move looks bland and unpredictable. .Bian Que is indeed more famous as a "wonderful hand", but if he returns to the essence of medicine and considers the true contribution made by doctors to the health of the whole human being, the two brothers who are "vulgar hands" are even better.
——“The “Skillful Hands” and “Skilled Hands” in Investment from the Story of the Three Bian Que Brothers, July 2021
Lee Chang-ho only pursues 51% of the offensive efficiency in each hand, while the remaining 49% is used for defense.Although this seemingly "vulgar hand" is not disturbed, it brings a sphere of influence that expands again and again.Many beginners of Go try their best to make "smart moves", which are a blockbuster and usher in all kinds of admiration.Like Go, investing is about long-distance running, and short-term sharpness may not necessarily lead to long-term victory.The stock god Buffett has a famous saying "Never lose money", which is exactly the same as Lee Chang-ho's vulgar practice.
——"Investment is like chess, don't be greedy to win", November 2017
51% efficiency means gradual progress, connivance and calmness on offense and defense.1% may seem trivial, but with two to three hundred moves in a game, it is difficult for the opponent not to reveal his faults.Of course, it is even more difficult for Lee Chang-ho to continue to master the 1% of the heat and let his opponents have no gaps.Winning without seeking victory is the essence of the vulgar principle.
——"A good hand is hard to find, easy to do with a common hand", August 2015 (full text can be found on the official website of Industrial Securities Global Fund)
Caitong Asset Management: Love Jimin, we wrote five college entrance examination essays in one breath
Caitong Securities Asset Management wrote five essays for the college entrance examination.Corresponding five college entrance examination essay topics to investment, summarizing many investment experiences.
01 Fragments of the plaques inscribed by the public in the National Volume A Dream of Red Mansions
The triple realm of copying homework
Let me ask, when you first came into contact with stocks and funds, who did not copy homework?There are very few investors who believe they can answer definitively, "I don't."
Some investors either follow the trend and buy the heavily held stocks of fund managers, or directly copy the positions of FOF funds, or even make hurried bets based on the recommendations of friends around them and hearsay in various stock fund discussion groups.No matter how the homework is copied, the result is predictable.
Investment guru Peter Lynch once said that buying stocks without studying the fundamentals is like playing cards without reading them, and you will eventually fail.For investors, "copying homework" may be good for a while, but it may not always be good.Whether it is to speculate in stocks or buy funds, it is not feasible to continue to make money by copying homework.
But then again, "copying homework" is the only way for almost every investor to go from infancy to maturity.
The first realm of "copying homework": copying and quoting directly.This is like the proposal in "A Dream of Red Mansions" to name the pavilion from the word "Yiran" in the sentence "You Pavilion Yiran" in Ouyang Xiu's "The Drunkard Pavilion".This is more common among novice investors.
The second state is to integrate and use for reference, which is similar to the word "Xieyu", which borrows the word "Xieyu" in "Xieyu from between the two peaks", but also has some innovations.After the novice investors advance, they can probably reach the level.
As a mature investor, the realm of "copying homework" needs to be higher - originality.They must not only understand the market, understand the investment target, but also understand themselves, that is, according to factors such as capital attributes, investment objectives, risk-return characteristics, etc., propose a set of matching asset allocation solutions.
From introduction and absorption to innovation, this is the self-cultivation of a qualified investor.So, where are you now?
02 National Volume B: Cross, cross again!
See you on the next summit!
From the 2008 Olympic Games to the 2022 Winter Olympics, China has twice amazed the world with its strong pulse.Some investors may ask: Why is the national strength strong, the stock market is still stepping around 3000 points?
How are the facts?Let’s take the opening days of the two Olympic Games as a node (2008.8.8-2022.2.4) to see the changes in the A-share market: the Shanghai Composite Index only rose by 29% during the period, but if we use another index that can better reflect the whole picture of A-shares If Wind is all A, the increase during the period exceeds 167%, which is equivalent to an annualized increase of 10.33%.In other words, during the two Olympics, the Chinese stock market quietly completed a leap.
In the historical convergence period of the unprecedented changes unseen in a century and the "two centenary goals", what will be the force driving the next leap of China's stock market?
It is the boom of the industry.Under the supply-side reform, technological upgrading, production capacity clearance, mergers and acquisitions will accelerate industrial transformation and integration, and a number of outstanding leading companies will emerge from all walks of life.
It is the soul of technology.Thanks to the combined promotion of talent reserves, financing capital, and infrastructure, China is in the transition from investment-driven to innovation-driven. The use of technological innovation to create demand and meet demand in industry tracks and companies, is expected to achieve pulse-like profits. increase.
It is the gathering of wealth.The new regulations on housing and housing and asset management have affected the wealth allocation trend of Chinese residents. In addition, the "third pillar" policy of pensions has been implemented one after another. A share of the capital to leapfrog again.
Outside the Olympic arena, we will also witness the rise of China's national strength in the capital market. There will be ups and downs and wind and rain along the way, but looking back, one mountain after another is behind us.Firm belief, find the right direction, we will meet again on the next mountain top!
Data source: Wind, the past performance of the index does not represent the future, the Chinese securities market has been established for a short time, and the above presentation cannot be used as any investment recommendation.
03 Beijing Paper Question 1: Learning Today
Keep evolving, no end
The only constant in investing is that we face changing markets all the time.Inventory of the market's popular tracks in the past few years, such as electronics in 2019, food and beverages and new energy in 2020, and new energy in 2021, as the so-called "flowers are not a hundred days of red", it is necessary to continue to make money through the volatile market. A very difficult thing.
Looking back on these industrial changes and changes in the main line of investment, the enlightenment brought to us is that investment is a high-intensity long-term event. No matter what style of investment, it is the realization of the cognition of the economic development and industrial changes of the times. The core behind In fact, it is the ability to keep pace with the times and keep iterating.
How to continue to learn, many investment masters have pointed out the direction for us, and it can be summed up in two points: first, to expand the ability circle, stand on the shoulders of predecessors to continuously absorb knowledge, and find a suitable investment method; secondly, gradually establish Its own investment system is constantly summed up in practice, and iteratively updated in the process of development.Only in this way, in the face of the hustle and bustle of the market, can we deal with it calmly and win long-term value by embracing changes.
04 Beijing Volume 2: Online
online
With the advent of the Internet age, online has opened up another new world.Online learning, online office, online consumption, online service... All conceivable connections seem to be "snapped" by an invisible and intangible data network.
Based on this, fund investment is also more convenient.Online application for redemption, online understanding of various fund knowledge, and even more frequent online communication with fund managers.However, there is also investment anxiety, a small heart that is worried about gains and losses due to the ever-changing net worth estimates, and investment actions that are deformed by various "grass news". Every Christian is "online at any time".
But the reality is that the market often completes "changes" in a very short period of time. Few investors can guarantee that they will repeatedly perform successful band operations. Frequent operations also mean mistakes.
05 Tianjin Volume: Ordinary fireworks are the most beautiful scenery
After the fireworks, it is prosperous
What is "fire smoke"?It is the life of the city, and it is all kinds of living beings.Investing is like a journey of life, the ups and downs of profit and loss are all fireworks on the journey.How to deal with it with a normal mind is a matter of knowledge.
The capital market is easy to make people overly optimistic. In the face of success, people always like to "self-attribute", invisibly regard chance and luck as a rule, and use this rule for the next time, but the scenery at the next corner is often different, and the profit and loss may be Change in one thought.
Once you have experienced it, it is hard to endure it.As everyone knows, low valleys are the normal state of life. If you can't control your mentality at this time, it will only make yourself more embarrassed.
We often say "give and take", which is a kind of life wisdom, and the same is true in investment.In investing, people tend to fall into the whims of "catching flying knives" and "making quick money". In fact, it is the most important thing to learn to calmly give up things that are beyond the scope of your ability and to look at every ups and downs rationally.
After all, only those who come to the end of this journey can see more scenery.
