From this year's perspective, the cumulative trading volume of the national futures market from January to May was about 2.474 billion lots, and the cumulative trading volume was about 209.56 trillion yuan, down 20.84% and 12.44% year-on-year respectively. Experts believe that the main reason for the decline is the impact of geopolitical conflicts, policy tightening, economic downward pressure and other factors.
Commodities and financial futures traded diverged, however. From the perspective of the commodity futures options market, the trading volume in the first five months of 2022 decreased by 21.3% year-on-year, and the transaction value decreased by 14.7% year-on-year, accounting for 97.78% and 77% of the total market respectively. From the perspective of the financial futures market, in the first five months of 2022, the cumulative turnover reached 55 million lots and the cumulative turnover reached 48.21 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.81% and a decrease of 3.66% year-on-year respectively, accounting for 2.22% and 23% of the national market respectively. .
The turnover in the commodity futures market has declined significantly, which is closely related to the basic peaking and falling of bulk commodities. Relevant experts believe that this round of changes in the trading scale of my country's futures market shows that the trading scale of the futures options market will slow down in the fourth quarter of 2021, and the trading scale will decline from January to May 2022; however, the "black swan" Incidents and international geopolitical conflicts have prompted real companies, financial institutions and investment institutions to actively enter the domestic futures options market for risk hedging, as well as strengthen the asset allocation of crude oil, precious metals, non-ferrous metals and agricultural products, thus reducing the decline in the futures market trading scale. Amplitude.
Among the most active futures varieties in the first five months of this year, PTA, methanol, steel, soybean meal, fuel oil, rapeseed meal, silver, soybean palm oil, PVC, glass soda ash, iron ore, CSI 300, CSI 500, Nickel, copper, aluminum, natural rubber, crude oil, gold, asphalt, pulp, and treasury bond futures all ranked among the top 30 in terms of transaction volume and turnover, but these most active varieties experienced a decline in transaction volume in the first five months, with only PVC , iron ore, soda ash, low-sulfur fuel oil, crude oil, palm oil and stock index futures and a few other varieties saw a year-on-year increase in trading volume.
At the same time, the market has shown four growth points: First, since 2022, the trading volume of the financial futures sector has increased by 8.8% year-on-year, the most important of which is the large increase in the trading volume of treasury bond futures. 85% and 86% respectively; 5-year treasury bond futures trading volume and value increased by 60% and 63% respectively; 10-year treasury bond futures trading volume and turnover increased by 20% and 23%, respectively, reflecting the CFFEX Treasury bond futures are increasingly valued and actively participated by domestic financial institutions, investment institutions and other institutional investors. The trading volume and turnover of CSI 500 stock index futures increased by 11% and 9% respectively, and the trading volume of SSE 50 stock index futures increased by 12% year-on-year.
Second, since 2022, the transaction of commodity options in my country has developed well, and the market share has further increased rapidly. From January to May, the trading volume of commodity options reached more than 122.32 million lots, a year-on-year increase of 67%; the turnover was 131.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40%. At the end of May, the open interest of commodity options reached 2.85 million contracts, a year-on-year increase of 23%. Among them, the trading volume of soybean meal options was 21.28 million, accounting for 17% and ranking first; corn and PTA ranked second and third respectively. The turnover of iron ore options was 20.9 billion yuan, accounting for 16%, ranking first; the turnover of crude oil and palm oil options ranked second and third, with turnover of 17.4 billion yuan and 17 billion yuan respectively.
Third, the overall trading volume and turnover of the chemical sector in the futures market increased year-on-year, up 5% and 28% respectively.
Fourth, the oil and oil sector in the futures market has sprung up, with the turnover increasing by 17% year-on-year. Among them, the turnover of peanut and palm oil futures increased by 236% and 72% respectively year-on-year.
Wang Jun, Dean of Founder Futures Research Institute, analyzed that looking forward to June, with the steady recovery of the domestic economy, a large number of enterprises have increased their risk management efforts and actively participated in futures and options hedging transactions. Under the economic and financial risks, the risk hedging operation using financial futures options will also be increased, and the transaction scale of the national futures market will further rebound.
(Editor in charge: Guan Jing)
