Securities Times reporter Li Yan
The international crude oil price soared to US$120 again, approaching the post-Russian-Ukrainian conflict high and attracted much market attention.
As of the close of last Friday, WTI crude oil futures closed at $120.47 per barrel, up nearly 30% from the lowest of about $93 in early April, and Brent crude oil touched $124 per barrel at one point.Despite the surge in crude prices, Goldman Sachs said energy prices would need to climb further to cut consumer demand, raising its oil price target further to $140 a barrel.
With the rise of international oil prices, the stock market also showed a phenomenon of linkage between futures and stocks.In the past 3 trading days, the A-share oil-related industry sector surged 5.48%, CNOOC hit a new high since its listing, and Sinopec and PetroChina rose sharply.
Goldman Sachs raises oil price target
In the past two months, the international oil price has gone out of a strong upward trend since the lowest price of about 93 US dollars, with an increase of 30%.On June 8, the price of WTI crude oil reached a maximum of US$123.18/liter, approaching the high of US$130 set in early March; as of the close of June 10, WTI crude oil futures reached an intraday maximum of US$122.75 and closed at US$120.47/barrel; Brent crude hit as high as $124 a barrel.It is worth noting that, affected by the rise in crude oil prices, the No. 92 gasoline in some parts of the country has exceeded 9 yuan per liter for the first time.
Recently, Goldman Sachs raised its oil price target again, and expected the price of Brent crude oil to be $140/barrel in the third quarter and $130/barrel in the fourth quarter, both of which were previously expected to be $125/barrel; $130/barrel, compared with the previous expectation of $115/barrel.
Goldman Sachs energy research director, senior commodity strategist Damien Courvalin recently said that energy prices need to climb further, for Americans to start cutting back on consumption, "prices are not high enough to reduce demand growth."
Morgan Stanley expects the base price of Brent crude oil to be $130/barrel in the third quarter, while the bullish price is expected to be $150/barrel.Oil trading giant Trafigura CEO Jeremy Weir said oil prices could hit $150 a barrel in the next few months.
The United Arab Emirates, a major member of OPEC+, which includes 10 non-OPEC members including Russia, also said oil prices are "far from reaching" their peak, as demand in the Chinese market is recovering.
Supply continues to be tight
The latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration also showed that despite record fuel prices, U.S. gasoline demand rose to its highest level this year, but was about 1% lower than a year earlier and nearly 6% lower than the same period in 2019.
Although the crude oil market has strong demand, the most essential factor leading to the persistence of high oil prices is tight supply.At the 29th ministerial meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries decided to increase the monthly average daily output from July to August to 648,000 barrels per day, higher than the previous monthly increase of 432,000 barrels per day.Although the production increase plan exceeded expectations, the remaining spare capacity of OPEC members is not much at present, and the scale of production increase in recent months has failed to meet the target, and the market's worries about tight supply remain unabated.
Data show that in May 2022, OPEC+ production increased by 120,000 barrels per day from the previous month, 2.616 million barrels per day lower than the target value, and the implementation rate of production cuts was as high as 182.5%.The 13 OPEC members produced 28.62 million bpd in May, down 180,000 bpd from the previous month.
Goldman Sachs believes that the supply and demand situation in the global market will deteriorate, and the supply deficit may expand further than before. The current global inventory has decreased by 75 million barrels compared with the previous one.Goldman estimated the June 22 deficit of nearly 600,000 barrels per day (at current spot prices), a new deficit that will keep inventories and spare capacity in global oil markets at record lows for months to come.
CITIC Construction Investment Futures also believes that the supply and demand pattern of crude oil is still strong. Last Thursday, the increase in refined oil again exceeded that of crude oil, and the cracking spread of refined oil in Europe and the United States rose.The terminal consumption data is still in the upward period, and the idea of maintaining more shocks.
However, the World Bank cut its global growth forecast for this year to 2.9%, warning of the risk of "stagflation".A spokesman for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said it is expected to further downgrade its 2022 global growth forecast next month.This will be the third time the IMF has lowered its forecast this year, and it is clear that the negative factors of high oil prices are accumulating.
Oil sector shares soar
In the context of the continuous rise in oil prices, oil-related stocks in the A-share market rose sharply last week, showing a linkage effect of futures stocks.
Data show that in the past three trading days, the oil industry has risen by 5.48%, ranking third among all sectors in the All-A industry, after the coal industry and the fertilizer industry.In terms of individual stocks, CNOOC's A-shares hit a new high, and the total market value of A+H hit a new high.PetroChina hit a new high in 3 months, Sinopec hit a new high in nearly 4 months, and Guangju Energy hit a 2 consecutive daily limit.
Many market participants believe that oil stocks are the best investment opportunities at the moment, and the most keen one should be Warren Buffett.
Buffett's Berkshire began to buy Chevron as early as the third quarter of last year, and increased its position significantly in the first quarter of this year. The market value of the position reached 26 billion US dollars, making it the fourth largest stock.
In addition, Buffett also bought Occidental Oil aggressively in the first quarter, holding a market value of about 13.2 billion US dollars, ranking the sixth largest stock.At present, Berkshire's holdings in the oil industry have exceeded 40 billion US dollars, accounting for 11% of the market value of the total holdings.
Cinda Securities believes that the demand for crude oil is still growing, and the world will continue to face the problem of crude oil shortage for many years. International oil prices will usher in an upward turning point in 2022. In the medium and long term, oil prices will remain high for a long time, and energy is expected to be in a boom in the next 3 to 5 years. up cycle.
However, in its outlook for the second half of the year, China Securities Investment expects that demand for crude oil will decline rapidly as the global economy declines.However, the uncertainty of war and geopolitical factors is relatively large. Under the circumstance that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine does not spill over, it is expected that oil prices will fluctuate and fall.
