Oil prices adjust tonight or enter the era of "10 yuan"
Guangzhou Daily News (all media reporter Zhang Lu) This Tuesday, June 14, at 24:00, a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will be ushered in.According to the data of Zhuo Chuang, a commodity information agency, as of the close on June 10, the reference crude oil change rate on the 9th working day in China was 6.91%. 95# gasoline is raised by 0.28 yuan, and 0# diesel is raised by 0.29 yuan, which means that after the current round of adjustments, No. 95 gasoline in most parts of the country will break through or approach 10 yuan per liter.The reporter noticed that, affected by high oil prices, people's green travel has increased.
Refined oil prices may usher in the tenth rise this year
At 24:00 on June 14th, a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window was ushered in.It is generally believed in the industry that, regardless of whether crude oil rises or falls, the increase in the retail price limit of refined oil products is "a certainty."According to the statistics of Zhuochuang Information, after the price limit increase was implemented, the domestic refined oil market has gone through 11 price adjustment windows, of which 10 were raised and 1 was lowered.According to the current rate, the standard gasoline and diesel will be increased by 2670 yuan/ton and 2585 yuan/ton respectively, the discounted price of 92# gasoline is 2.1 yuan, and the price of 0# diesel is 2.2 yuan. The cost of oil for consumers increases.
According to the analysis of Zhuochuang Information, the rate of change of crude oil is just beginning in this pricing cycle.First, the U.S. reserve pool continues to decline, and the commercial pool has not accumulated a large amount for the time being, and the fundamentals are strongly supported.Second, after entering the peak oil consumption in summer, the crude oil processing volume maintained a high level.Under the pattern of low inventories and the expectation of good future demand, the focus of crude oil prices has shifted upward.As a result, the domestic reference crude oil rate of change continues to operate within a positive range.
Citizens' green travel increases
"As domestic oil prices rise to a high level, consumer resistance has increased, and people's green travel has increased." Jinlianchuang Energy analyst Wang Shan believes that at the same time, domestic auto sales have fallen sharply and new energy vehicle sales have exploded The rapid growth and the continuous increase in the proportion of private consumption also reflect, to a certain extent, consumers' consideration and choice of fuel vehicle travel costs.
The reporter also noticed that due to high oil prices, more people choose to buy new energy vehicles.In May, retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles increased by more than 90% year-on-year.According to data released by the Passenger Federation, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 421,000 in May, a year-on-year increase of 111.5% and a month-on-month increase of 49.8%.From January to May, the domestic retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles was 1.712 million, a year-on-year increase of 119.5%.
"Under high oil prices, if I'm not in a hurry, I would also choose to take the subway or bus." Citizen Ms. Wang said frankly, "At the same time, I feel that the carpooling business is on fire now. As soon as I open the travel software, special carpooling prices appear. , speed carpooling and other options, it is much cheaper than me taking the car alone, for example, the express car costs 18 yuan, the special carpooling only costs 9 yuan, and the speed carpooling only costs 12 yuan.”
Positive oil and gas and other sectors reporters noticed that due to the rise in oil and gas prices, many A-share sectors were also driven.According to Wind platform data, as of the close on the 13th, the petrochemical, oil and gas, energy equipment and other sectors rose by more than 15% within 20 days.
Everbright Securities pointed out that the era of high oil prices has come, and it is recommended to pay attention to the upstream and oil service sectors that benefit from rising oil and gas prices; the coal chemical sector and light hydrocarbon cracking sector that have certain cost advantages under high oil prices; Refining sector.The rise in oil prices is good for the petroleum, petrochemical and new energy sectors, but it is bad for aviation, logistics and other industries."Due to the fierce competition in the aviation industry, it is difficult to pass on all the increased costs caused by the rise in oil prices." An analyst who studies the transportation sector said that the increase in oil prices will have a certain impact on the aviation industry.
International crude oil futures prices fluctuated upwards
Recently, international crude oil futures prices have shown a volatile upward trend. Concerns about insufficient supply and increased demand have supported international oil prices to remain at a high of $120 per barrel.
How will oil prices develop in the future?"Currently in the peak season of traditional consumption of crude oil, and it is also the season of extreme weather such as hurricanes, crude oil has a tendency to hit new highs again, and the possibility of breaking through US$130 per barrel cannot be ruled out." Wang Shan said.
It is worth noting that, according to the current price adjustment mechanism, when the crude oil price in the international market, on which the domestic refined oil price is based, is higher than US$130 per barrel, the maximum retail price of gasoline and diesel will not be raised or raised less.
In addition, a number of institutions raised their expectations for international oil prices, among which Goldman Sachs said in a report in early June that oil prices need to rise further to normalize the unsustainably low level of global oil inventories.The bank sees Brent at $140/bbl in the third quarter (previously expected $125/bbl) and $130/bbl in the fourth quarter (previously expected $125/bbl).
Cinda Securities also stated that international oil prices will usher in an upward turning point in 2022. In the medium and long term, oil prices will remain high for a long time, and energy resources are expected to be in a booming cycle in the next 3 to 5 years.
【Editor: Wang Yu】
