In the context of the continuous improvement of photoelectric conversion efficiency, the industrialization process of HJT (silicon heterojunction photovoltaic cells) is being significantly accelerated.
According to public information, since 2022, LONGi Green Energy (601012.SH), Anhui Huasheng, King Kong Glass (300093.SZ), and China Resources Power (00836.HK) have all announced GW-level HJT projects, with a total of 18.6GW of potential tender orders. The industry predicts that the industry HJT bidding is expected to reach 20GW-30GW in 2022, and the "industrialization speed far exceeds industry expectations".
According to LONGi Green Energy official WeChat news, LONGi HJT R&D has made another major breakthrough recently. The photoelectric conversion efficiency of M6 full-size battery (274.4c㎡) has reached 26.50% as tested by the Institute of Solar Energy Hamelin (ISFH) in Germany, creating a large-scale single New world record for crystalline silicon photovoltaic cell efficiency. Previously, in October 2021, LONGi Green Energy broke the world record for HJT cell efficiency twice a week, with a maximum conversion efficiency of 26.3%.
Battery manufacturers speed up HJT mass production bidding
After the patent protection of Sanyo HJT expired in 2015, domestic and foreign photovoltaic cell companies began to vigorously promote the mass production of HJT.
"In 2023, HJT's market share will be about 6.5%, and it will rise to 14% in 2025. After 2025, HJT's market share may exceed TOPCon." A photovoltaic industry analyst said.
According to data from TrendForce, the planned global HJT production capacity in 2021 is about 148.2GW, of which the capacity under construction/to be constructed will reach 141.9GW. With the acceleration of equipment localization and process upgrades, many manufacturers have recently begun to speed up mass production bidding.
Among them, LONGi Green Energy will release an EIA report in April 2022, which covers the first phase of the new high-efficiency battery pilot project of LONGi Central Research Institute, with a construction scale of 1.2GW. Since the equipment of this pilot line is laser cutting machine, texturing cleaning machine, PECVD, PVD, screen printing machine, etc. required for the production of HJT, Zheshang Securities expects the project to be related to HJT battery.
Anhui Huasheng and China Resources Power announced 12GW and 4.8GW of HJT construction projects in May 2022, respectively. Together with the 2.7GW capacity that has been realized, it is expected that Anhui Huasheng's HJT battery capacity will reach 7.5GW in 2023.
King Kong Glass announced in June 2022 that it plans to invest 4.2 billion yuan to build a 4.8GW heterojunction cell + module project, with an estimated total annual profit of 770 million yuan after completion.
Previously, Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH), the leading photovoltaic silicon material, built 1GW and 200MW HJT projects in Chengdu, Sichuan, and Hefei, Anhui, respectively. In March 2021, the average efficiency and maximum efficiency of the company's 200MW HJT pilot line were 24.3% and 25.18%, respectively, and the average yield reached 97.84%. At the same time, the 1GW HJT pilot line rolled off the first cell in July 2021.
A new energy fund manager in Shanghai told Yicai that the industrialization process of HJT is progressing relatively smoothly at present.
HJT production line equipment has basically achieved localization
With the accelerated expansion of production in the industry, orders from HJT equipment manufacturers ushered in an explosion.
At present, HJT equipment has basically achieved localization. According to the equipment bidding situation announced by various companies, Maiwei (300751.SZ) and Jiejia Flextronics (300724.SZ) have become core equipment suppliers.
In April 2022, Maiwin won an order for HJT equipment from REC 4.8GW in India. Previously, the company has also cooperated with Tongwei, Anhui Huasheng, King Kong Glass and other customers, and won many GW-level orders.
From the perspective of specific production lines, Anhui Huasheng's two production line equipment are provided by domestic manufacturers, and Maiwei shares participated in the rest of the equipment except the PECVD equipment in production line 1. The 1.2GW HJT project launched by King Kong Glass in 2021 is the first time that Maiwei has delivered HJT GW-level equipment for the entire line. The project consists of two 600MW production lines, using G12 large silicon wafers, with a single-machine capacity of 7,200 wafers/hour and screen printing of 4,800 wafers/hour, leading the industry.
Tongwei's Hefei base adopts a combination of domestic and imported equipment, while the Chengdu base is all localized. The main suppliers are Maiwei, Jiejia Flextronics, and GS-Solar.
In June 2022, Maiwei shares stated on the interactive platform that the company's HJT equipment has successfully introduced microcrystalline technology. At the same time, the company and manufacturers in all links of the industry chain are actively promoting cost reduction. From the perspective of investment quota, the Anhui Huasheng production line, which is mainly driven by Maiwei shares, has dropped from 575 million yuan in production line 1 to about 450 million yuan in production line 2.
Like Maiwei, Jiejia Flextronics is also one of the few companies that deploys all types of HJT equipment. Among them, RPD equipment has significant advantages in improving efficiency, while tubular heterojunction PECVD has the characteristics of high operating rate and low investment cost. At the same time, the company is also one of the few domestic enterprises that have the supply capacity of PERC/TOPCon/HJT three kinds of process equipment at the same time. In 2021, the company also broke through the history of the industry, and the HJT equipment it produced successfully entered the European market.
Jinchen shares (603396.SH) mainly focus on PECVD equipment. While steadily developing the traditional business of components, the company has successfully issued a fixed increase of 380 million yuan and increased the production capacity of PECVD equipment by 20 units per year. In 2021, the company's PECVD equipment has been verified by Jinergy Technology's production line, and the average efficiency has reached 24.38%; in March 2022, the company's first microcrystalline PECVD equipment has been verified by Jinergy Technology, and the mass production conversion efficiency target is positioned at 25%. %above.
Zheshang Securities predicts that the HJT equipment market space is expected to reach 41.9 billion yuan in 2025, with a CAGR of 80% in 2020-2025. Under the assumption of 20% net profit rate and 25 times PE, the market value of HJT equipment industry is 200 billion yuan, and the leading market share is expected to exceed 50%, reaching a market value of 100 billion yuan.
Cost reduction remains a priority
As a brand-new battery technology, HJT has high initial efficiency and large room for improvement. This is because HJT is a double-sided symmetrical structure, and the power generation is more than 10% higher than that of single-sided cells, and the current double-sided rate has reached 95%.
In addition to high conversion efficiency, HJT stability is also outstanding due to low optical attenuation and temperature coefficient. HJT batteries have a 10-year attenuation of less than 3%, and Panasonic's HJT batteries have almost no attenuation in 24 years. In terms of temperature coefficient, the battery temperature coefficient of HJT is lower than that of PERC, which can reduce the heat loss caused by sunlight.
However, many industry insiders said that cost reduction is the primary problem that HJT needs to solve urgently. Solarzoom data shows that the production cost of HJT cells is 0.9 yuan/W, which is 0.2 yuan/W higher than PERC.
In fact, HJT still has a lot of room for cost reduction. On the one hand, HJT supports silicon wafer thinning technology, which can greatly reduce the cost of cell silicon; on the other hand, the low preparation temperature of HJT can also save energy and reduce costs.
The above-mentioned photovoltaic industry analysts said that HJT has a clear cost reduction route, and it is expected to drop to a level that can be mass-produced by the end of 2022, and production will further increase in the first half of 2023. When HJT's market share can surpass PERC in the end, it mainly depends on the speed of cost reduction.
From the perspective of the overall pattern of photovoltaic cells, PERC has been in power in the past three years, and N-type cells are currently the mainstream of TOPCon. It is conservatively estimated that HJT will surpass TOPCon in 2025. The above-mentioned new energy analysts said that in the process of accelerating the industrialization of HJT, the possibility of other technologies being promoted faster is not ruled out.
This article does not constitute any investment advice. Investors should act accordingly and bear all consequences. Market risk, the investment need to be cautious.
