In recent years, my country's public offering industry has shown a rapid development trend. Not only is the asset management scale ranked fourth in the world and first in Asia, but the industry's valuation level has also risen.In a recent research report released by CITIC Securities, it evaluated a number of fund companies such as E Fund Fund, GF Fund and China Universal Fund, and suggested paying attention to brokerages holding shares in leading public fund companies.At the same time, the frequent changes in the equity of fund companies this year have also become an important basis for the valuation of fund companies.
It is worth noting that with the development of the public offering industry entering the fast lane, "base content" has gradually become one of the important indicators for evaluating the investment value of securities companies, and the investment logic of securities companies' stocks has quietly changed.Industry insiders have analyzed that the investment logic of securities companies that relied on market cycles in the past is no longer applicable. With the steady increase in the number of public offerings, the securities companies, especially the securities companies that control and participate in fund companies, are expected to usher in a double increase in performance and valuation.
A number of top public offerings are valued at over 50 billion yuan
According to the latest data disclosed by the American Investment Company Association on June 16, as of the end of the first quarter of 2022, the total size of China's open-end public funds (excluding FOF) was 3.47 trillion US dollars, continuing to rank fourth in the world, second only to the United States, Luxembourg and Ireland, the first in Asia.Looking back at historical data, the ranking of Chinese public funds has continued to rise from the ninth place in the world at the end of 2016, overtaking Japan, Australia and the United Kingdom all the way, and rising to the fourth place by the end of 2021.
In recent years, my country's public funds have been developing rapidly.Data shows that after the total scale of public funds exceeded the 20 trillion yuan mark for the first time at the end of 2020, the total scale of public funds in 2021 will reach a new level and enter the era of 25 trillion yuan.The latest data released by the Asset Management Association of China shows that by the end of April 2022, the total net asset value of my country's public funds was 25.52 trillion yuan.
With the continuous increase in the management scale of public funds, the investment value of fund companies and their shareholders behind securities companies has also received more and more attention from the market.
Recently, a number of institutions have released research reports that are bullish on securities companies.Among them, in its investment strategy for the asset management industry in the non-banking financial industry in the second half of 2022 released by CITIC Securities, it is recommended to pay attention to securities companies holding top public funds.
CITIC Securities said that in the past 10 years (end 2011 to end 2021), the scale of China's public funds has grown from 2 trillion yuan to 25 trillion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 29%, ahead of China's asset management industry and global asset management. Industry.As the most comprehensive public fund among asset management institutions, it is expected that the growth rate will be faster than the overall growth rate of the asset management industry.
CITIC Securities further analyzed that in the short term, China's public funds are still an industry with prominent beta attributes; in the long run, China's public funds are still in a long-term growth phase.
In the view of CITIC Securities, the current public fund market structure is still relatively fragmented, and leading companies are beginning to show their advantages.Among them, the reasonable market value ranges corresponding to the four fund companies E Fund, GF Fund, China Universal Asset Management and Orient Securities Asset Management in 2022 are 65.3 billion yuan to 106.1 billion yuan, 37.5 billion yuan to 61 billion yuan, and 48.8 billion yuan to 48.8 billion yuan, respectively. 79.3 billion yuan, 16.8 billion yuan to 27.3 billion yuan.
The valuation of some fund companies can also be seen from the recent equity transfer cases.In April this year, Shandong International Trust Co., Ltd., a Hong Kong-listed company, announced that it would sell its 16.675% stake in Wells Fargo Fund.At that time, the listing price corresponding to this part of the equity was about 4 billion yuan, and the appraisal price was more than 260% higher than the book value.According to the 2021 annual report of Haitong Securities, the net profit of Wells Fargo Fund in 2021 will be 2.564 billion yuan.If calculated according to the 20 times PE valuation, the overall valuation of Wells Fargo Fund in 2021 is about 50 billion yuan.
In addition, Daheng Technology (600288) recently announced that Daheng Technology plans to sell its 20% stake in Lion Fund at a final price of not less than 1 billion yuan.According to Daheng Technology's 2021 annual report, the net profit of Lion Fund in 2021 will be 305 million yuan.If it is calculated based on the profit level in 2021 and the valuation of 20 times, the valuation of Lion Fund in 2021 will be around 6 billion yuan.
The investment logic of brokerage stocks has quietly changed
As of June 28, the CSI All-Share Securities Index has rebounded by nearly 20% since April 27, during which stocks such as Everbright Securities, China Securities Construction Investment (601066), Yuexiu Financial Holdings (000987), and Guolian Securities (601456) rose. more than 30%.With the rise in the valuation of public funds, many institutions believe that the current investment logic of securities companies is also quietly changing.
Southern Asset Management believes that some securities companies directly hold or participate in high-quality public fund companies, and the high performance of fund companies has become an important ballast stone and long-term growth driver for some securities companies.This has led to a logical change: the experience of holding shares of securities companies will be better improved.
"In the past, when measuring the investment value of securities companies' stocks, the market often paid attention to indicators such as market turnover and brokerage commissions. When the market is hot, the profit expectations of securities companies' stocks will also increase simultaneously; on the contrary, once the market turnover declines, securities companies' stocks will also increase. will enter a downward channel. But this logic is no longer applicable. Although the A-share market is still fluctuating, the holdings of public funds have shown a stable or even upward trend, and asset management-related income will also be reflected in the overall income of securities companies. , the brokerage sector is expected to usher in a double increase in performance and valuation." said a public fund manager in Shanghai.
Cao Haifeng, an A-share non-banking financial analyst at UBS Securities, said that large asset management is an engine for the future growth of the securities industry. , which will bring considerable benefits to the securities industry, and asset management-related income may account for 30% of brokerage revenue in 2030.”
GF Securities also stated in a recent research report that the current valuation of the securities industry is at the bottom of its history. Although performance has been restrained, under the background of increasing the proportion of direct financing and giving full play to the function of household wealth management, medium and long-term development opportunities are not limited. unchanged.In view of the steady growth and continuous efforts, the sector is expected to usher in a strategic allocation time window.
(Editor in charge: Li Rong)
