In the ups and downs of the first half of the year, the tens of billions of private equity performance lists were rearranged.
The latest data shows that as of the end of June, the tens of billions of private equity has retreated nearly 4% this year, and more than half of the private equity is in a state of floating losses.Among the tens of billions of private equity funds with floating losses, many are former performance champions, and the "champion curse" seems to be fulfilled again in the first half of this year.
Industry insiders said that champion private placements tend to have a more distinctive style, so they will lag behind in stage performance in the style and industry rotation of the A-share market.However, using semi-annual performance to judge the pros and cons of private equity is slightly short-term, and investors can pay more attention to the mid- and long-term performance fluctuations of managers.
The overall performance "returns blood"
In the past June, the market has stabilized and rebounded, and the performance of tens of billions of private equity has been "recovered".
The latest data from Private Equity Pai Pai.com shows that the overall return of 87 private equity companies with a performance record of 10 billion in June was 5.41%, of which 80 achieved positive returns, accounting for as high as 91.95%.Among the tens of billions of private placements that achieved positive returns, there were as many as 22 institutions with a monthly return of more than 10%.
So far, in the first half of this year, the overall return of 87 private equity firms with a performance record of tens of billions of dollars has narrowed to 3.85%, of which the proportion of positive returns has also increased to 26.44%.Specifically, in the first half of the year, Jiuying Assets became the performance champion with a return of more than 17%. Loken International, Blackwing Assets and Si Xie Investment ranked second, third and fourth respectively. The average income in the first half of the year all exceeded 8%. .
"Champion Curse" Appears
Some are happy and some are sad.As of the end of June, there were still 64 private equity companies in the tens of billions of private equity echelons with negative returns this year, and 19 of them had a floating loss of more than 10%.
Specifically, in the first half of this year, many former champion private placements performed poorly.For example, alluvial assets, which won the championship with an average yield of nearly 80% in 2021, retreated by more than 20% in the first half of this year; and the runner-up Zhengyuan Investment, which followed last year, was also volatile during the same period, despite the market rebound. It regained some lost ground, but the overall retracement in the first half of the year was still close to 15%.
Li Chunyu, founder of PE Pai Pai.com, said that the curse of champions is a normal industry phenomenon. The reason is that the A-share market has different leading styles and industries every year, and the styles and industries that are often strong in the past year will fall into adjustment in the next year. .The reason why the champion private equity leads the performance is that its own style is extremely compatible with the market style of the year, so it is easy to have a large retracement when the style is changed.
The founder of a ten-billion-level private equity firm in Beijing also said frankly: "The reason for the huge withdrawal of products in the first four months of this year is the extreme style changes in the market, that is, real estate stocks, coal stocks, financial stocks and other stocks that have not performed for many years. It has become the mainstream of the market, and the company is mainly a growth style.
In addition to changes in market style, the surge in scale may also be one of the reasons for the drag on performance.
"Whether it is subjective or quantitative private equity, there will be a large influx of funds when the performance is outstanding. If the strength of its team cannot cover the scale of the surge, then the performance will likely decline, such as adjusting positions flexibly and being good at industry rotation. A well-known investor who manages tens of billions of funds at once will definitely have a difficult and transitional stage." A source from a brokerage channel said bluntly.
According to public information, the alluvial assets and Zhengyuan Investments, which had outstanding performance last year, were indeed issued at an alarming rate.According to data from the Asset Management Association of China, alluvial assets were only filed in November 2020. In 2021, 47 products were issued in one go, and the scale of filing exceeded 10 billion in just one year.Zhengyuan Investment was registered and filed in December 2015. In 2021, the private placement will issue 129 products, and the management scale will exceed the 10 billion mark.
A private equity researcher said: "Whether it is a change in style or a surge in scale, the impact on private equity managers may be short-term or irreversible, so it is too short-sighted to use half-year performance to judge the quality of a private equity. For investors For example, when choosing, you can observe the manager's medium and long-term performance and fluctuations, choose products that match your risk appetite, and at the same time maintain a cautious attitude toward private placements that have surged in size, and make sure that their investment and research strength is ahead of scale. invest."
