Financial Associated Press, July 13 (Editor Zhou
Xinyang) Tianqi Lithium (09696.HK), which was listed on the Hong Kong stock market on its first day on Wednesday (July 13), fell below the issue price of HK$82 at the opening. 73.3 Hong Kong dollars, down 10.18%.
The share price of Tianqi Lithium A-share (002466.SZ) has suffered a wave of decline recently. As of press time, the share price has fallen by more than 16% in the past three trading days.
On July 11, two days before it was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the A-share Tianqi Lithium once fell by the limit.Ying Ying, the former "Private Equity Brother" Xu Xiang's wife, said on July 10 when she released her weekly market comments, "I personally think that Tianqi Lithium's Davis Double-click has reached its peak, and the price has been overestimated."
Institution: Lithium prices are expected to rise in late July
CITIC Securities' latest judgment on the lithium industry believes that the supply side is at a high point during the year, and the rise in lithium prices needs to wait for the downstream to start the replenishment cycle.The inflection point of lithium prices may come in 2023, and the pressure of excess supply will increase in 2024.
Lithium prices stabilized in May 2022 after experiencing a decline caused by the impact of the epidemic.Against the background that the consumer side continues to exceed expectations, the market's expectations for lithium prices to continue to rise in the second half of the year are increasing.However, due to factors such as the concentration of imported raw materials to Hong Kong and the peak production season of domestic salt lake lithium enterprises, the supply of lithium raw materials is currently at a high level during the year, suppressing the upward trend of lithium prices.CITIC expects that the industry will usher in a traditional replenishment cycle by late July, and lithium prices are expected to start rising.
CITIC believes that with the continuous accumulation of inventories in the industrial chain, the rising space for lithium prices in the second half of the year may be compressed.Since 2022, stimulated by factors such as improving demand and rising lithium prices, the overproduction of power battery companies has become more significant. According to data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, the ratio of power battery production to installed capacity from January to May 2022 will exceed 200%, much higher than in 2021.According to the calculation of lithium consumption in each link of the industrial chain, the current power battery link may have a relatively high inventory of lithium raw materials.If lithium prices rise rapidly again in the second half of 2022, companies may be able to cope with the rapid rise in lithium prices by reducing inventory levels.
The research predicts that the supply and demand pattern of the lithium industry will improve in 2023, and the pressure of excess supply will increase in 2024.At the same time, under the trend of vertical integration, the volatility of lithium prices may weaken in the future.
In addition, the company disclosed in the first quarterly report of 2022 that the net profit attributable to the parent in Q1 was 3.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1443%, and the deducted non-net profit was 2.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1883%.
