As of the press release of the China Securities Journal on June 1, more than ten places have disclosed the issuance plan of local government bonds in June, among which the issuance of new special bonds exceeds 500 billion yuan.Many experts said that under the policy deployment of accelerating the issuance progress and appropriately expanding the support field of special bonds, the issuance and use of special bonds will be significantly accelerated. It is expected that the issuance peak will be reached in June, and the issuance scale is expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan.
Release pace quickened
In May, the pace of local bond issuance accelerated.Mingming, the co-chief economist of CITIC Securities, estimated that local government bonds issued a total of 1,207.7 billion yuan in May, an increase of 38% year-on-year.Among them, the new issuance of special bonds was 632 billion yuan, an increase of 80% year-on-year.According to data from the Ministry of Finance, the issuance of local government bonds nationwide in April was 284.2 billion yuan, and the issuance of new special bonds was 103.8 billion yuan, far lower than the scale of issuance in May.
Looking at different regions, the data shows that the issuance of new special bonds in Guangdong alone exceeded 100 billion yuan in May, reaching 126.7 billion yuan; Hebei, Zhejiang, and Xinjiang followed closely.26 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the Central Government) and cities under separate state planning have issued new special bonds.
Speeding up the issuance of special bonds is an urgent need for stable growth.The "Package of Policy Measures for Solidly Stabilizing the Economy" (referred to as "Policy Measures") recently issued by the State Council clarifies that the issuance and use of special bonds by local governments will be accelerated and the scope of support will be expanded.Quickly complete the task of issuing and using special bonds this year, speed up the issuance and use of 3.45 trillion yuan of special bonds that have been issued this year, basically complete the issuance by the end of June, and strive to basically complete the use by the end of August.At the same time, in terms of the scope of application, the "Policy Measures" clarifies that the areas of special bond support should be appropriately expanded, and priority should be given to including new infrastructure and new energy projects in the scope of support.
"The acceleration of the issuance and use of special bonds has played a positive role in expanding effective investment and stabilizing the macroeconomic market." said Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities and dean of the research institute, speeding up the issuance of special bonds will help increase investment in high-quality projects Investment intensity, expand effective investment, promote infrastructure investment as soon as possible, and hedge against the pressure of shrinking demand.
The issuance amount in June may exceed 1 trillion yuan
Recently, 13 places including Hainan, Hebei, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Shandong, and Yunnan have successively disclosed the issuance plans of local government bonds in June. In addition to the issuance plans for the second quarter disclosed by various places before, the new issuance of special bonds disclosed in June exceeded more than 500 billion yuan.
It is worth noting that some places have updated the release plan.For example, Jilin previously planned to issue 5 billion yuan of new special bonds in June, but after changing the plan, it will issue 30.5 billion yuan.Industry insiders believe that under the requirement of "basically complete issuance by the end of June", more places will update the June issuance plan.
Many experts predict that the actual scale of new special bonds issued in June will exceed 1 trillion yuan.According to data previously released by the Ministry of Finance, 1,401.9 billion yuan of new special bonds have been issued in the first four months of this year.Mingming said that this means that more than 2 trillion yuan of new special bonds have been issued in the first five months.According to the calculation of 90% of the issuance quota of new special bonds by the end of June, it is expected that the issuance of new special bonds in June will exceed 1 trillion yuan.
"In previous years, the issuance of special bonds was generally required to be basically completed by the end of the third quarter, and this year, it was required to be basically issued in the first half of the year." Xie Yunliang, chief macro analyst at Cinda Securities, said that if it is calculated based on the basic issuance in the first half of the year, there are still more issued by the end of June. The quota of about 1.5 trillion yuan has not been issued.Historically, the monthly issuance of new special bonds has reached a maximum of 998 billion yuan, not exceeding 1 trillion yuan.The issuance in June this year may exceed that size.
Drive infrastructure investment growth
Experts believe that the accelerated issuance and use of special bonds will provide more abundant funds for infrastructure investment, and follow-up infrastructure investment is expected to maintain high growth.
Infrastructure construction is an important starting point for stabilizing the economy, and policy support has been continuously increased.The "Policies and Measures" proposes to speed up the promotion of a number of well-proven water conservancy projects, accelerate investment in transportation infrastructure, and continue to promote the construction of urban underground comprehensive pipe corridors.
"From the perspective of capital, the advance issuance of special bonds has injected a booster into infrastructure investment." Huang Wentao, chief economist of China Securities Investment Securities, said that it is expected that the new special bonds will continue to support energy, transportation, municipal parks, agriculture, forestry, water conservancy, security In the future, the expansion of special bonds to obtain more project resources will become the norm.
Li Chao, chief economist of Zheshang Securities, believes that due to the impact of the epidemic, the driving effect of some demand-side policies has not been fully reflected. It is expected that the policy effect is expected to be gradually released from June, and infrastructure investment is expected to achieve double-digit growth in the third quarter.
In addition, some experts believe that with the acceleration of the issuance of new special bonds, monetary policy may be required to maintain reasonable and sufficient market liquidity.Xie Yunliang believes that the regulatory authorities will have countermeasures to hedge the impact of centralized bond issuance. For example, the People's Bank of China may conduct multiple large-scale reverse repurchase operations in the future.
(Editor in charge: Guan Jing)
