Recently, the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar both hit a new high in nearly a month.At the same time, there have been significantly more voices in the market for "stabilizing" the RMB exchange rate.From trading behavior to market expectations, signs of RMB exchange rate stabilization are gradually increasing.
Industry insiders said that under the influence of factors such as the high adjustment of the US dollar index, the continued easing of the domestic epidemic, and the increased confidence in economic growth, the depreciation pressure of the RMB exchange rate has been released, and the short-term signs of the US dollar exchange rate have stopped falling, which will return to a two-way fluctuation pattern.The RMB exchange rate remained basically stable and supported.
hit a one-month high
On the first trading day after the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the RMB exchange rate continued to rebound.On the morning of June 6, the exchange rate of the onshore RMB against the U.S. dollar once rose above 6.64 yuan, reaching a high of 6.6391 yuan, a new high in nearly a month.At 16:30 on the same day, it closed at 6.6457 yuan, up 293 basis points from the previous trading day's closing price.
Before the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the onshore RMB exchange rate had rebounded, rising 191 basis points on June 2 to close at 6.6750 yuan.The rebound of the offshore RMB exchange rate was more obvious. On June 2, it rose by 442 basis points in a single day and closed at 6.6540 yuan.On June 3, the offshore market traded normally.On this day, the exchange rate of the offshore RMB against the US dollar once rose to 6.6164 yuan, a new high since May 5.
After the previous rapid adjustment, since mid-May, the RMB exchange rate has gradually stabilized and stabilized.According to statistics, in April and May this year, the onshore RMB depreciated by 3.84% and 1.08% against the US dollar respectively, and the offshore RMB against the US dollar by 4.51% and 0.54% respectively.Compared with April, the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate in May narrowed significantly.Entering June, as of 17:15 on June 6, the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar appreciated by about 0.2% and about 0.4% respectively.
"Under the influence of factors such as the adjustment of the U.S. dollar index at a high level, the continuous improvement of the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation, and the increased confidence in economic growth, the short-term signs of the RMB against the U.S. dollar have stopped falling." CICC Li Liuyang's team recently released a report pointed out.
Have the foundation to keep running smoothly
"Quick release of devaluation pressure", "The stage of rapid depreciation may have ended", "The RMB exchange rate has returned to two-way fluctuations"... A reporter from China Securities Journal noticed that there have been significantly more voices regarding the "stable" trend of the RMB exchange rate recently.
Guan Tao, global chief economist of BOC Securities, said that with a large trade surplus, a net inflow of direct investment, an increase in private foreign exchange asset holdings, and macro-prudential measures to provide policy protection against risks, my country has the foundation and conditions to keep the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level. The level is basically stable.
"In the second half of the year, the long and short forces affecting the operation of the RMB exchange rate are relatively balanced." The team of Li Liuyang said that the recent introduction of a package of measures to stabilize growth has effectively boosted market confidence and will provide support for the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate.
From the perspective of the US dollar index, the Shanxi Securities Research Report pointed out that the Fed's continued tightening of monetary policy has been digested in advance by the market, and the US economic growth will gradually slow down in the future, which may suppress the US dollar index.Interest rate hike expectations are pushing the euro to strengthen, and the pull-down effect on the US dollar index cannot be underestimated.The depreciation pressure of the RMB against the US dollar due to the strengthening of the US dollar index may ease.
Pan Gongsheng, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, said a few days ago that many market institutions believe that the Fed is increasingly difficult to stabilize the economy while controlling inflation, and the tightening of monetary policy in the euro zone has strengthened the signal that the dollar exchange rate has fallen recently.
In addition, with the relief of the epidemic and the effects of various policies to stabilize growth, the advantages of domestic production and supply continue to exist, and trade in goods is expected to maintain a reasonable surplus.At the same time, with the opening of my country's financial market to the outside world, the return on investment in RMB assets is stable, and foreign investors will continue to be attracted to invest in China.
He believes that the stable operation of my country's foreign exchange market has a better foundation than the previous five months.
(Editor in charge: Cai Qing)
