Original title: Oil prices may enter the "ten yuan" era!A full tank of fuel for a family car costs nearly 100 yuan more than at the beginning of the year. Will new energy vehicles become the biggest winners?
Under the continued high operation of international oil prices, domestic oil prices may usher in the "ten yuan" era.
At 24:00 on June 14, domestic refined oil products will usher in the 11th round of adjustment this year.As of June 7, more than half of the 10 pricing working days in this round have been counted. The current crude oil change rate on the fifth day is 6.41%, and the oil price forecast has been raised by about 305 yuan/ton.Converted to liters, it is currently estimated that the next round of oil price increases will range from 0.23 yuan/liter to 0.26 yuan/liter. Based on the 50-liter fuel tank of a family car, it will cost about 12 yuan more to fill a tank of fuel.
In fact, before the adjustment on June 14, domestic prices of refined oil products have been adjusted 10 times since the beginning of this year, showing a trend of "9 ups and 1 down". Domestic gasoline and diesel have risen by 2,330 yuan and 2,245 yuan per ton respectively. Yuan, which also means that a private car with a 50-liter fuel tank currently costs 93 yuan more to fill up a tank of fuel than at the beginning of the year.
Taking Beijing as a reference, before the adjustment on June 14, the market price of No. 92 gasoline was 9.01 yuan/liter, and that of No. 95 gasoline was 9.59 yuan/liter.The region with the highest oil prices in the country is still Hainan Province. Before this round of adjustment, the market prices of No. 92 and No. 95 gasoline were 10.12 yuan/liter and 10.76 yuan/liter respectively.
Industry analysts believe that if the international oil price cannot show a sharp downward trend in the remaining domestic pricing cycle, this round of domestic oil prices will continue to increase with a high probability, and it will also be the 10th increase in the year.
However, the expectations of all parties for international oil prices are still upward.Crude oil trading giant Trafigura CEO Jeremy Weir said on June 7 that oil prices may reach $150 a barrel in the next few months, and by the end of the year, the market may start to see to demand destruction.Rising commodity prices could weigh on economic activity and ultimately cool demand, Weir said.
Goldman Sachs also raised its crude oil price forecast again in a June 6 report, saying the structural shortage remains unresolved, and raised its summer peak oil price target from $125 to $140, while also raising its 2022 oil price target. The oil price target for the remainder of the year and for 2022 was raised by $10.
Citibank said in a report on June 6 that it raised its Brent crude oil price forecast for the second quarter by $14 to $113 a barrel, up from its previous forecast of $99 a barrel.Citibank believes that after a period of high oil prices, prices will trend lower as the supply side eases.
Seeing that the era of "ten yuan" oil prices is coming, many netizens have also expressed that the oil trucks can no longer be driven, and they are ready to change to trams.
In fact, the frequently rising oil prices have made more and more voices countdown to the exit of fuel vehicles from the market.Not long ago, Yu Chengdong, Executive Director of Huawei, CEO of Terminal BG, and CEO of Smart Car Solutions BU, publicly stated: "The era of pure fuel vehicles will end quickly. Buying fuel vehicles now is like buying a functional phone in the era of smartphones." Weilai Li Bin, the founder of the car, also said: "I don't understand at all, why are people still buying gas cars? What else is good about gas cars other than the smell of gasoline?"
Some people believe that although my country has not yet released a timetable for delisting fuel vehicles, the trend of promoting the development of new energy vehicles has become more obvious.In terms of the promotion of carbon emission work, the large-scale improvement of the national standard for exhaust gas, and the restrictions on the transfer and inspection of old fuel vehicles, many policies have shown the intention to encourage the consumption of new energy vehicles.
On May 31, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Commerce, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, and the National Energy Administration issued the "Notice on Carrying out 2022 New Energy Vehicles Going to the Countryside Activities" (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice") clarified that from May to December , the four departments will jointly organize a new round of new energy vehicles to the countryside activities, in Shanxi, Jilin, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Henan, Shandong, Hubei, Hunan, Hainan, Sichuan, Gansu and other places, select third- and fourth-tier cities, counties and districts Hold a number of special sessions, touring exhibitions, and corporate events.
It is reported that a total of 26 car companies will participate in the 2022 new energy vehicle going to the countryside activities with 70 models, an increase of 8 car companies and nearly 20 models compared with 2021.From the number of car companies and models participating in the event, it is not difficult to see that in 2022, the participation of companies in the new energy vehicle going to the countryside activities will be stronger and the models will be more abundant.
Prior to this, the "Opinions on Financial Support to Do a Good Job in Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutralization" (hereinafter referred to as the "Opinions") officially issued by the Ministry of Finance also proposed that it is necessary to vigorously support the development of new energy vehicles and improve the support for charging and replacing infrastructure. policies to steadily promote the demonstration and application of fuel cell vehicles.
However, as to whether the recent rise in oil prices will become a key node for new energy vehicles to completely replace traditional fuel vehicles, Fu Yuwu, honorary chairman of the Chinese Society of Automotive Engineers, believes that although oil prices have continued to rise recently, the raw materials for new energy vehicle power batteries are also rising. .Due to the continuous warming of the global climate in recent years, low-carbon travel and green travel have become the main theme of people's travel, and it is imminent to accelerate the realization of the "double carbon" goal.Although the world is accelerating the transformation and layout of electric vehicles, the rise in oil prices is not the fundamental reason for consumers to buy traditional fuel vehicles for the time being.For example, the current commercial vehicle market still relies on traditional fuel vehicles, and their complete replacement by new energy vehicles will involve issues such as energy diversification.Therefore, the factor of rising oil prices will not fundamentally cause traditional fuel vehicles to be replaced, but traditional fuel vehicles may face the process of being gradually replaced.
