Strengthen confidence and consolidate the recovery situation - Observation of China's economic trend in the first five months
Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, June 15th.Question : Strengthen Confidence and Consolidate the Recovery Situation - Observation of China's Economic Trend in the First Five Months
Xinhua News Agency reporter
China's economic data for the first five months of this year was released on the 15th.As the effects of a series of policies to effectively coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development continued to emerge, in May, the main indicators of the national economy improved marginally, and economic performance showed a recovery momentum.
The middle of the year is approaching, and we are currently at a critical juncture that determines the economic trend of the year.Facing multiple pressures such as a more complex and severe international environment and the impact of the domestic epidemic, how is China's economy going?
There are positive changes in the economic operation, and the foundation for recovery still needs to be consolidated
In May, the national added value of industries above designated size decreased by 2.9% year-on-year from April to a year-on-year increase of 0.7%; the total retail sales of consumer goods decreased by 6.7% year-on-year, a decrease of 4.4 percentage points from the previous month; the total import and export of goods increased by 9.6% year-on-year. %, the growth rate was 9.5 percentage points higher than the previous month; the national urban survey unemployment rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month...
The latest statistics show that with the overall improvement of the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation, the effect of policies and measures to stabilize growth has gradually emerged, and the operation of the national economy has undergone positive changes.
In March, especially since April, affected by the Ukraine crisis and the impact of the domestic epidemic, the downward pressure on China's economy has further increased. Following the overall stable start of the first quarter, the main economic indicators in April dropped significantly, and the recovery and development suffered a "cold spring". .
Against the backdrop of multiple risks and challenges, China's economy has shown a hard-won recovery momentum.
"All regions and departments efficiently coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, and focus on stabilizing the macroeconomic market. The domestic epidemic prevention and control situation has generally improved, production demand has gradually recovered, employment prices have generally been stable, and major indicators have improved marginally." National Bureau of Statistics National Fu Linghui, director of the Comprehensive Economic Statistics Department, said.
Judging from the accumulated data in the first five months, the added value of industries above designated size in the country increased by 3.3% year-on-year; the total import and export of goods increased by 8.3% year-on-year; the national investment in fixed assets (excluding farmers) increased by 6.2% year-on-year; investment in high-tech manufacturing increased year-on-year 24.9%; 5.29 million new jobs were created in cities and towns across the country, and major economic indicators maintained growth, continuing to demonstrate resilience and vitality.
It is worth noting that the economic recovery of some regions that have been greatly affected by the epidemic has accelerated.For example, in May, the added value of industries above designated size in the Yangtze River Delta region and the Northeast region decreased by 3.2% and 1.1% year-on-year, respectively, and the decline was more than 10 percentage points lower than that of the previous month; the import and export of goods trade in the Yangtze River Delta region increased by nearly 20% month-on-month. Significant recovery.
"China's economy has released a signal of recovery." Reuters commented on China's economic performance in May.
However, the data also shows that in the first five months, the growth rate of main indicators was still at a low level, and some indicators declined year-on-year."The recovery of the domestic economy is still preliminary, and the foundation for recovery needs to be consolidated," said Fu Linghui.
Policies make precise efforts to stabilize the economic market
The epidemic must be prevented, the economy must be stabilized, and development must be safe. These are the clear requirements of the Party Central Committee.
Unswervingly adhere to the general strategy of "foreign import, internal rebound" and the general policy of "dynamic clearing"; according to the new characteristics of virus mutation and spread, constantly adjust and optimize epidemic prevention and control measures... With the joint efforts of all parties, Although there are still slight fluctuations in some areas, the overall epidemic situation in the country has remained stable.
Hundreds of millions of market players are the key force in ensuring employment, people's livelihood and stabilizing the fundamentals of the economy.Recently, a package of policies has been introduced successively, with precise efforts to help market entities to relieve their difficulties.
Further intensify the value-added tax refund policy, and it is estimated that the annual tax rebate is 2.64 trillion yuan; increase support for job stabilization and government procurement to support small and medium-sized enterprises, expand the implementation of the policy of deferred payment of social security premiums; increase inclusive small and micro loans The strength of support will continue to promote the steady and moderate decline of the actual loan interest rate...
"The Human Resources and Social Security Bureau returned the unemployment insurance we paid last year to the accounts of 6 stores in proportion, and returned a total of more than 200,000 yuan." Wei Xing, assistant to the president of Liaoning Dashang Jinfu Regional Group, said that when the epidemic seriously affected the retail industry's passenger flow, This stable fund gave the company a "timely rain".
Market players are expected to weaken the situation has eased.In May, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to 49.6%, and the enterprise production and operation activity expectation index rose to 53.9%; the service industry business activity expectation index rose 2.2 percentage points from the previous month.
Employment is the biggest livelihood of the people, especially when economic development encounters difficulties, it is even more necessary to stabilize employment.
Efforts will be made to expand employment channels for college graduates; strengthen labor cooperation and information docking for migrant workers, and expand employment channels for migrant workers and local and nearby employment... The employment stabilization policy continues to make precise efforts, and the overall employment base improved in May. The unemployment rate of the main age group of employed persons dropped by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.
Together, we will overcome the difficulties together.At present, a series of "symptomatic medicines" and "combination punches" have been rapidly implemented to promote the continuous recovery of the national economy...
33 policy measures in 6 aspects!The State Council recently issued the "Package of Policies and Measures for Solidly Stabilizing the Economy", covering six major aspects, including fiscal policy, monetary and financial policy, and policy to ensure the stability of the industrial chain and supply chain.
"my country's inflation rate and fiscal deficit rate are both at low levels, foreign exchange reserves are sufficient, and there is still room for macro policy, which is conditional to effectively respond to risks and challenges and smooth economic fluctuations." said Long Haibo, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council.
Maintain strategic focus and strive to achieve reasonable economic growth in the second quarter
Looking ahead to the whole year, China's economy is faced with a difficult "examination paper".
Looking at the world, the international environment is still complex and severe. The Ukrainian crisis has exacerbated the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on the global economy, and external uncertainty has increased. Looking at the domestic situation, the epidemic prevention and control situation is still severe and complex, with demand shrinking, supply shocks, and weakening expectations. The pressure is still prominent.
The more critical the moment, the more it is necessary to maintain strategic focus, further strengthen policy control and release policy effects.
"Currently is a window period to stabilize the economy. It is very important to do a good job of economic work in the second quarter. The key is to implement a package of policies to stabilize and stabilize growth." said Liu Yuanchun, president of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics.
Recently, the State Council dispatched an inspection team to carry out special inspections on 12 provinces to stabilize growth and market players and ensure employment.Judging from the supervision and inspection, most localities have introduced supporting measures, which have increased the number of factors that have boosted economic performance and enhanced market confidence.At the same time, it has also been found that in some places there are problems such as inadequate and inaccurate implementation of policies, simplification of work "one size fits all", and arbitrary charges and fines.
Gao Peiyong, vice president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that in the face of difficulties and challenges, we must adhere to the market entity as the focus, focus on "watering and fertilizing" from the root of the market entity, and implement precise policies.
The financial department has clearly made efforts in eight aspects, speeding up the progress of fiscal expenditure, accelerating the issuance and use of local government special bonds and expanding the scope of support, etc.; speeding up the implementation of a package of monetary and financial policies to accurately benefit the trapped groups and key areas; the business system will further coordinate the epidemic prevention and control And consumer promotion work...
Seizing the time window, macro policies have been intensified, incremental policy tools are being planned, and the policy of stabilizing growth is expected to be further effective.
The more complicated the situation, the more impetus to reform and opening up.The difficulties and challenges my country is currently facing include both short-term factors and structural systemic contradictions.
The "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Accelerating the Construction of a Large National Market" was released, focusing on expanding domestic demand and accelerating the construction of a new development pattern; the "roadmap" for the reform of the fiscal system below the provincial level is clear, further rationalize the inter-governmental fiscal relations below the province, and promote basic public Equalization of services; the "Opinions on Promoting the Stability and Quality Improvement of Foreign Trade" was issued, proposing 4 measures to promote foreign trade to achieve the goal of maintaining stability and improving quality...
China will open its door wider and wider, and its market potential will continue to be released, attracting global attention.Zhu Ji, senior vice president of Cabot and president of the Asia-Pacific region, said that Cabot has an investment plan of nearly US$80 million in China from 2022 to 2023. Although the epidemic has some impacts, the project will not stop.
"With the implementation of a package of policies and measures to stabilize growth, economic performance is expected to further improve." Fu Linghui said that if the epidemic can be effectively controlled and various measures to stabilize growth are implemented and effective, the economy is expected to achieve reasonable growth in the second quarter.(Reporters Wei Yukun, Shen Cheng, Wang Yuxiao, Wang Bingkun)
【Editor: Wang Yu】
